It’s safe to say that fantasy owners who waited on Devil Rays pitcher Scott Kazmir to make his season debut, were less than thrilled with his effort last Sunday (six hits, three earned runs, and three walks while striking out five in four innings against the Red Sox). The good news is that Kazmir identified a flaw in his pitching mechanics that he believes is to blame for the lackluster performance and expects to be much improved going forward.

“Maybe I was a little bit too amped up,” Kazmir told MLB.com. “I don’t know what it was, but I was just flying open with everything. Everything felt good until right when I was about to throw the ball [in the first inning], then I would just fly open. My front side would not stay closed. It was just me trying to find my release point the whole game.”

Both Kazmir and pitching coach Jim Hickey were confident that any issues had been addressed following Wednesday’s bullpen session, and it seems as though fantasy owners shouldn’t hesitate to leave the Rays ace active for his next start.

I think that the performance of Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez on Wednesday should go a long way towards soothing any remaining wounds the Minnesota faithful feel from the offseason trade of superstar pitcher Johan Santana.  Facing the White Sox, Gomez went 4-for-6 with two runs and three RBI, becoming the first Twins hitter in 22 years to hit for the cycle. The late Kirby Puckett was the last Twins batter to accomplish the feat.

“It’s amazing,” Gomez told the Associate Press. “Kirby Puckett, I saw the video of the player. He is an All-Star and I can’t explain it to you. That’s unbelievable.”

What’s unbelievable is that Gomez hit just .232 last year in 125 at bats with the Mets and has over .285 just once in three minor league seasons. At just 22-years of age, he possesses huge potential, but expectations were that he wouldn’t hit as well as he has so far this season. The reasoning isn’t because he strikes out too much, it’s simply that he doesn’t draw enough walks–something very common with younger players.

The fact of the matter is his contact rate ((ab-k)/ab) has been slightly better than the league average, even last season when he hit a paltry .232.  His batting eye (bb/k) is right around the league average over the last couple seasons, proving that while he certainly has room for improvement, he isn’t as bad as the assessment of some scouts above would seem to indicate.

After last night’s performance thrust him onto more of a national stage, it may seem like a no-brainer to say this, but he is not a sell high in my mind. He’s someone who could play a significant role in fantasy outfields all season. My expectations for his projected 2008 numbers are: .270, 105 runs, 6 homers, 54 RBI, 60 stolen bases. Fantasy owners shouldn’t have a problem finding room for that in their lineup.

In the market we scour over the stats and determine which players fantasy owners should consider buying low and selling high along with our favorite free agent those owners should consider adding to their roster. Decisions like these can be the difference in a winning and losing fantasy squad, so without further adieu, here are your candidates for this week’s column.

BUY LOW: OF Elijah Dukes, Nationals
Those who read my columns regularly might remember that I was singing the praises of Dukes in the spring. That hasn’t exactly gone according to plan, but it’s tough to blame the young Nationals outfielder, who accrued just two at bats before being sidelined by a hamstring injury for the last 30-plus games. The only thing that stood between him and a breakout season was behaving like a mature adult, something that has eluded him his entire career. Injuries hadn’t been a significant issue in the past and there is no reason to believe that has changed because of one hamstring injury.

If you think Dukes will be hard pressed to crack the lineup when he returns to the lineup, consider the numbers of the current healthy Nationals outfielders…

Lastings Milledge: 118 ABs, 15 runs, one homers, 11 RBI, three SB, .263 BA
Wily Mo Pena: 61 ABs, four runs, zero homers, four RBI, zero SB, .230 BA
Austin Kearns: 113 ABs, 12 runs, two homers, 13 RBI, one SB, .212 BA
Willie Harris: 39 ABs, 10 runs, zero homers, three RBI, zero SB, .205 BA
Rob Mackowiak: 24 ABs, two runs, zero homers, zero RBI, zero SB, .167 BA

Are you going to argue that there is something in that group above that suggests to you that Nationals management will be unable to find at bats for a promising bat such as Dukes? Heading into the season, Dukes’ status as a sleeper went from intriguing to over hyped and it’s remarkable just how far he’s fallen back in the eyes of some fantasy owners given his injury. If you can convince one of those owners to give you Dukes for 60 cents on the dollar, it’s time to buy, buy, buy.

SELL HIGH: 3B Joe Crede, White Sox
Everyone—including the White Sox—wrote off Crede to a certain extent this past offseason. It wasn’t hard to find a reason to join them, considering he had opted for rest over surgery for multiple back injuries and the nagging injury sapped his numbers, limiting him to 167 at bats and just four homers in 2007—nearly half of his current 2008 total. A major reason why he’s enjoyed resurgence this season is that he finally underwent surgery this past offseason, which was a more complete solution for a back injury that never seemed to be addressed, and subsequently took such a big bite out of his production.

So why would you want to want to sell a healthy proven power source? First, you have to get past the fact that he has hit just .260 over the last three seasons, including .216 in 2007 and .248 so far this season. If you figure you can combat his mediocre batting average, consider the fact he’s hit more than 25 homers in a season just once in seven professional seasons. Suddenly you have to consider if he’s truly the power source you thought he was through the first month of the season. He’s certainly as healthy as he’s ever been during his professional career and that may mean he equals his career high of 30 homers set back in 2006, but at this point it seems highly likely that you can get more value out of trading him than you can keeping him on your roster.

CLAIM: SP Greg Smith, Athletics
The Athletics have so many talented young pitching prospects throughout their system that it was no surprise that very few analysts (including myself) had a wealth of knowledge about Smith when he was traded from the Diamondbacks this offseason in the Dan Haren trade. His stock has risen significantly since he made his debut against the Blue Jays back on April 9th and fantasy owners are starting to take notice.

After walking five in his aforementioned debut, he’s walked just eight over five starts (33 combined innings) since. His strikeouts have also spiked, highlighted by his 10 whiffs against the Rangers in a dominant performance last Sunday. “I don’t know; I was locating the ball well and not trying to do too much—maybe that’s why I got a bunch of strikeouts,” Smith told the Associated Press. “Looking back, I wish it were less strikeouts so I could have pitched deeper in the game. To come back and get the win is good enough for me.”

It’s important to have realistic expectations when it comes to young pitching—just look to Max Scherzer’s starting debut for evidence of why it pays to stay guarded before you label the next young arm with just a nibble of major league success (albeit jaw dropping in Scherzer’s major league debut case) a stud for the next five months of the season. Smith has made more starts than Max and while it’s unreasonable to expect him to keep his ERA under 3.00 and his WHIP flirting close to the 1.00 mark all season, he’s shown enough poise and skill that he should be owned in all league formats now and be reduced to no less than a spot starter until he shows he’s not worthy of such a significant role.

Despite positive results from X-rays taken on Saturday, third baseman Aramis Ramirez is one Cub with a flawed paw. Ramirez didn’t play in Saturday or Sunday’s games against the Cardinals after taking a pitch off his wrist on Friday night.

”It’s a little better, but I can’t play,” Ramirez told the Chicago Sun-Times. The initial fear was that the wrist might be broken, but while aforementioned X-rays showed it was not, he struggled with his grip Saturday.

He’s being considered day-to-day, but should fantasy owners assume he’ll make a quick return to the lineup? Even if he does, will lingering effects from the injury have a significant impact on his numbers. I believe he could return this week, but from experience of dealing with wrist injuries to past players on my fantasy teams, they are a shell of their typical self until that injury completely subsides. While some fantasy owners won’t have a plethora of options to consider before setting their lineup on Monday, I would find a different option for the coming week if I were an A-Ram owner.

Photo courtesy of Boston.com

After Saturday’s debacle, it appears Cubs starting pitcher Rich Hill may need a vacation. Not the kind where he slathers on the sunscreen and enjoys an umbrella drink by the ocean, but the kind where he is jettisoned from the starting rotation until he figures out his issues. Hill was pulled after just two thirds of a inning against the Cardinals on Saturday. It was a meltdown of sorts, as he walked four of the six batters he faced and appeared completely lost after getting extra time between his starts in order to figure out his inconsistent results on the mound this season. The result was the threat that he could lose his spot in the rotation to young hurler Sean Marshall.

“Hill can’t start like this in the big leagues — c’mon,” manager Lou Piniella told MLB.com. “Every time he pitches, it’s an adventure. He’s doing his best, but we have no bullpen. I don’t know what the solution is, but I can’t start him any more until this thing gets taken care of.”

The fireballing Cubs pitcher didn’t need his manager’s quote because he felt plenty disgusted as it is, saying, “It’s embarrassing to go out there and throw the ball that way, and know that you’re far better than that and a far better pitcher than that.”

So what happens next? It’s difficult to imagine the Cubs getting the feedback they need on how Hill’s command is progressing from something as simple as bullpen sessions. It would seem likely that a move to the bullpen or Triple-A Iowa would be the only way to boost his confidence and get his control dialed back in. Neither possible scenario has been discussed in depth (at least to my knowledge) within the Cubs organization, but it seems to be the road that Hill’s 2008 season is heading down.

Fantasy owners shouldn’t bail on Hill just yet, but it will leave an obvious void in their lineup. His possible replacement (Marshall) brings a solid groundball approach to the table, but his control and command aren’t noticeably better than Hill’s. If you need a possible waiver claim to cover the spot in your rotation, consider the Athletics’ Chad Gaudin, Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez, Indians’ Aaron Laffey, Pirates’ Paul Maholm, Rays’ Andrew Sonnanstine, or Cardinals’ Joel Piniero.

EDITORS NOTE: Approximately an hour after this post, the Cubs demoted Hill to Triple-A and recalled promising prospect Sean Gallagher. Gallagher has plenty of potential in the long-term, but it’s veteran Jon Lieber who will be replacing Hill in the rotation. Lieber has had his ups and downs throughout his career, but he’s certainly a decent filler for the back of rotations in deep mixed leagues.

That’s right, we got a sweet whole two games from Brewers pitcher Yovani Gallardo in between trips to the disabled list.

For a fantasy owners like myself who saw bright lights and championships in my future with him anchoring my pitching staff, I just threw up in my mouth over the drastic turn of events that have unfolded over the last few hours.

Gallardo was injured during a play during Thursday’s game when he ran over to first to cover on a slow roller from Cubs outfielder Reed Johnson and when first baseman Prince Fielder made the tag, Gallardo was forced to hurdle Johnson, landing awkwardly on his right leg. He remained on the ground for a little while showing minor discomfort before walking off the injury, completing the inning, and tossing an additional inning before eventually leaving the game.  Doctors confirmed that staying out to pitch didn’t cause further damage to his knee, but an MRI exam on Friday morning confirmed that he’ll miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. The only good news to come from this is that the team expects Yovani to be ready for the start of the 2008 season.

“We had high hopes for Yovani,” general manager Gord Ash told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “You can’t replace the talent level. You just have to have other guys step up. It’s a significant loss.”

Sadly, the statement above holds true for fantasy owners to a certain extent. “You can’t replace the talent level.” Of course not unlike the Brewers, you have to try in order to field a competitive team for the last five months of the season. Milwaukee recalled Dave Bush, who made an impressive start, allowing one earned run over six innings for Triple-A Nashville.

How to fantasy owners recover from the loss of a pitcher who has, or at least had, as much potential as almost any pitcher in baseball?  It seems likely that in most leagues pitchers such as Edwin Jackson, Chad Gaudin, and of course phenom Max Scherzer are long since plucked from the waiver wire. Consider Gallardo’s replacement, Bush, who may not have pitched that well so far this season at the major league level, but his skill set is promising (6.5 K/9IP and 3.0 K:BB ratio). A few other possible free agents in your league depending on it’s size might include the recently recalled Yankees’ starter Darrell Rasner, Indians’ Aaron Laffey, Pirates’ Paul Maholm, Rays’ Andrew Sonnanstine, or Cardinals’ Joel Piniero.

Another option may include trading for pitchers who have yet to perform up to their full potential. Some of those who qualify who I believe are on the verge of turning things around are: the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, Tigers’ Justin Verlander, and the Mets’ John Maine.

Over the past week of enjoying my recent conversion to the land of HDTV, I’ve been subjected to countless runs of the Go Phone ad that features singer, “Meatloaf” and his family reworking what I view as one of the most irritating songs I’ve heard during my 31 (almost 32) years of life. “Paradise by the Dashboard Lights” is an ironic title considering I’m in anything but paradise whenever I hear it. Needless to say, over the last seven days it’s become abundantly clear that Meatloaf–whether the singer or the rectangular chunk of meat–has the same nauseating effect on me.

I’m getting equally as disgusted with the obsessive tracking of Francisco Liriano’s shortcomings in his return from Tommy John surgery. The latest was the report of his first start since being sent back to Triple-A Rochester, where he gave up five hits, four runs, and five walks while striking out three. As the southpaw was making that start, his manager Ron Gardenhire chimed in on the situation, telling the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “I think that he was a little–how would I put it?–confused.” “Because he really thought he had it all. He thought he could come up here and dominate some people. And it was an eye opener for him, which is good. Because you need to have a little fear in you in this game.”

The guy is 17 months post op and it seems like he’s already dead to some people. This despite the fact that it seems we’ve seen plenty of cases in which a pitcher doesn’t really return to form until two years after undergoing the surgical procedure. Of course this flies in the face of research done by Dr. Brett W. Gibson of the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia and his colleagues. Their studies showed that of 68 Major League Baseball pitchers who underwent the surgery between 1998 and 2003, most (82 percent) returned to play within an average of 18.5 months post-surgery with no change in average earned run average or walks or hits per innings pitched. On top of that, approximately one in seven pitchers in the majors has had the procedure and many of them are still pitching in the league which obviously suggests they are effective.

So Liriano sits at Triple-A and could be in the minors for the foreseeable future. In fact, I wouldn’t be stunned if he was demoted even further down the farm to Double-A or even High-A, because sooner or later the most important thing (even more so than the healing process) becomes rediscovering his confidence. Sure, he has to heal to be able to pitch, but that is all for naught if his confidence is shaken. While I may be in the minority, I’m not ready to dismiss the possibility that he could once again become a very effective pitcher. Given the fact he needs to address what was a wicked delivery which subsequently led to the injury, he may not be quite as dominant as he was in his rookie season, but very few pitchers are.

As a fantasy owners I’m simply not ready to give up on him. In fact, as someone who limits his participation to keeper leagues as much as possible, I’m a little intrigued by the fact that a season like this could drive his price down next season. It could present a great buying opportunity if more and more fantasy owners jump off the bandwagon. I don’t know about you, but I’m willing to listen to that damn Go Phone commercial another 12 times if it means I have an opportunity to make a thrifty acquisition that still possesses long-term potential.

Photo courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle

There is no bigger story today than the major league debut of Diamondbacks pitching prospect Max Scherzer last night.

Facing the Astros, Scherzer struck out seven in 4.1 perfect relief innings. The flame-throwing righty barely made it back to the locker room before fans called local sports radio shows to demand their very own Maximus be thrust into the starting rotation as soon as possible.

Ask and you shall receive.

Prior to Wednesday’s game, Manager Bob Melvin announced that the young phenom will start Monday’s game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. “He doesn’t have to be a five-pitch guy,” Melvin told the Arizona Republic. “He’s one of those few guys who can get by just on his fastball. But as a hitter, you can’t just sit on that. He has a real easy delivery, and that adds to the ball getting on you quicker than you expect, especially the first time you see him.”

There is no disputing his ability, as he ranked as the Diamondbacks fourth best prospect in Baseball America’s preseason top 10’s, and that is with outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and pitcher Brett Anderson ahead of him (both were dealt to Oakland shortly after the D-backs top 10 posted). His biggest asset is a sinking fastball that broke one bat on Tuesday and clearly overpowered every hitter he faced. Despite his manager’s assertion that all he needs is one pitch, it would seem necessary for him to develop his other pitches in order to remain in the rotation. He’s done just that, with Melvin admitting that his off-speed pitches had “more shape” to them yesterday.

Where there is some confusion is that Melvin insists he has an easy delivery, but a handful of minor league scouts that Baseball America talked to claim he has a violent head jerk at the end of his pitching motion that could cause problems. Then they refute that warning sign to a certain extent by mentioning his competitiveness, athleticism, and strong frame among his strengths. If you weigh all of this out I strongly believe Max is someone you should take an aggressive approach towards buying. That means for those owners in deep mixed leagues with plenty of your free-agent bidding dollars left should consider him one of the most sought assets you’ll see this season. It seems highly improbable that he’ll lose his rotation spot once given the opportunity and he could be a bigger difference maker than ANY player who started the season on top prospects lists.

Indians reliever Joe Borowski, who is on the disabled list with a strained right triceps, showed he is making progress by playing catch Monday and Tuesday, extending it out to 75 feet.

“It’s feeling as normal as normal can be right now,” Borowski told MLB.com. “Hopefully, it just keeps progressing.”

Joe Bo was shut down by the Tribe after blowing two of his first four save opportunities and he’s expected to miss another couple weeks as he tries to keep building up the strength in his arm. The most notable nugget from this news story is that manager Eric Wedge has already made it clear that current closer Rafael Betancourt will return to his setup role once Borowski is healthy enough to take back his role as stopper. I’m torn as to if I should suggest buying low on Joe Bo or selling high once he returns to the closer role. He doesn’t have the peripherals of Betancourt or Rafael Perez, but he seemingly has the trust of his manager despite a shaky WHIP and ERA. The best thing I can suggest right now is that fantasy owners who haven’t dabbled in the Indians bullpen should continue to take that approach. Those Betancourt owners should see if they can buy low on Joe Bo, but unfortunately it will be difficult for owners to pull off the reverse of that deal (buying on Betancourt).

Photo courtesy of USA Today

One of the most popular sleepers in fantasy leagues this spring is now expected to miss three to four weeks after suffering a hamstring injury. Monday’s MRI exam on the right hamstring of Rangers third baseman Hank Blalock revealed a partial tear, sending him to the disabled list for the foreseeable future. He received an injection of anti-inflammatory medication but is expected to miss at least three to four weeks, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Ramon Vazquez started the two games Blalock has missed thus far and is expected to see the majority of at bats while Hammering Hank is on the shelf. The big problem the Rangers face with the shift of Vazquez into the starting lineup is that it leaves them thin on the bench, particularly in terms of infielder depth.

It seems to suggest that they could recall someone, but few minor league infielders are healthy and/or performing well enough to justify a promotion. One guy to keep an eye on is outfielder Nelson Cruz, whose .538 on-base percentage leads all of organized baseball. Fantasy owners would be wise to keep an eye on if Cruz is promoted and take a chance on him in deep mixed leagues in the event that does occur. Meanwhile those left with a significant hole in their lineup due to Blalock’s absence will have to dig for options. Vazquez is an average one, and it seems unlikely that players like Joe Crede or Evan Longoria are still available in leagues. It’s possible that Scott Rolen was dropped in your league and he’d certainly be a viable waiver claim given the alternative.