Top 30 Prospects

In case you’ve overlooked the link on the left column that sends you to my top 30 prospects page, here it is in post format. This will be posted on Mock Draft Central later this week, so consider this a sneak peek. Judging by the picture, Evan Longoria is excited over the fact he leads the list.

1) Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays
Longoria left the Arizona Fall League early in order to play for Team USA at the World Cup in Taiwan, but not before hitting .318 and sporting a 1.062 OPS in 44 at bats. This came on the heels of hitting .299 with 26 homeruns, 97 runs, and 95 RBI in 485 at bats between Single and Double-A this season. The Rays claim there is a 50-50 shot that Longoria will be starting at the hot corner when they open the 2008 season and they are clearly making plans for such, shifting Akinori Iwamura over to second base. Every fantasy owner in keeper leagues should covet Longoria next spring and those owners in redraft leagues should closely monitor his ability to secure the starting job during Spring Training.

2) Jay Bruce, OF, Reds
Bruce strikes out quite a bit, but his across the board production more than makes up for it. In 525 at bats between three levels of the minors, he hit .319 with 26 homers, 87 runs, and 89 RBI, and eight stolen bases. After the Reds picked up Adam Dunn’s option, it looked as though there wouldn’t be room for Bruce in the Reds crowded outfield, but then Josh Hamilton was dealt to the Rangers. There should be no excuse for fantasy owners taking anything other than an aggressive approach when it comes to putting Bruce on their roster come draft day.

3) Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox
After a solid debut, the Red Sox flirted with the idea of giving Buchholz a significant role down the stretch and were rewarded for their faith when he no-hit the Orioles in just his second major-league start. Then of course, they decided it would be in everyone’s best interest to handle Clay with kid gloves and shut him down for the season after two more appearances. Prior to his impressive major-league stint, he went 8-5 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9IP in 125.3 innings between two minor league levels. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be scared off by how the Sox coddled him last season, because the team will have at least one opening in their rotation and their impressive Minor League Pitcher of the Year is even money to claim that spot.

4) Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals
It’s pretty tough to doubt a guy who led the Double-A Texas League with 93 runs, 29 homers and 69 extra-base hits. It’s even more impressive to consider that Rasmus is a five-tool stud in the making and once his body fills out, his smooth swing should start generating gaudier power numbers. The Cards will likely start him at Triple-A this season and give him time to put the final touches on an impressive package of skills, calling him up at some point during the season. That said, now is the time for fantasy owners to invest in him considering he will assume the starting role for the foreseeable future once an injury or lackluster performance force him into major-league action.

5) Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers
The 19-year old southpaw hails from the same high school as Padres hurler Chris Young and flashes the same package of skills, including a strong work ethic and strong arsenal of pitches. On top of a solid trio of pitches, Kershaw sports smooth pitching mechanics and a big frame that should help him stay healthy as he piles up the big-league innings. Those traits were on display on his way to an 8-7 record, 2.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 12 K/9IP in 122 innings at Double-A Jacksonville. The fans in Chavez Ravine have seen and heard the hype surrounding the bevy of minor league arms, but Kershaw is better than all of them. He should start the season back at Jacksonville, but once Jason Schmidt suffers his annual injury or Esteban Loiaza accrues his usual string of nauseating performances, the young lefthander should get the call.

6) Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins
Maybin’s season ended on a down note, as he was forced to shut it down early in the Arizona Fall League due to a strained left shoulder. That said, the injury shouldn’t overshadow the progress he made this season. He’s generally considered to be the top five-tool prospect in baseball, and he wasted no time proving it, clubbing a homer against the Yankees in his second game in the majors. Tigers general manager Dave Dombrowski once proclaimed that he, “wouldn’t trade Maybin for Alfonso Soriano,” but then he dealt him to Florida for Miguel Cabrera, so apparently there is a price. Maybin will have a great shot at winning the starting center field job this spring, but it’s probably more likely that he spends some time polishing up his game—particularly his ability to make contact with the ball—at Triple-A. The reality is that only injuries will prevent him from bringing his game to South Florida in 2008.

7) David Price, SP, Rays
Price has yet to pitch in a game at the professional level and that may be the only doubt in my mind in regards to him getting a chance with the big league club this season. The deal he signed after being drafted No. 1 overall last June is a major league deal, which means he’s immediately added to the 40-man roster and subsequently speeds up his timetable towards reaching arbitration. He certainly doesn’t have much to work on at the minor league level as he already possesses great control of his pitches and Baseball America obviously noticed this, ranking him as the 2007 prospect closest to the majors.

Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates
The 2007 season was a forgettable one for McCutchen, as he hit just .214 through the first two months of the season—something he blames the cool spring weather for. Don’t let last year’s bump in the road dissuade you from placing him near the top of your keeper league list this season, because he’s the complete package. He has a quick bat, solid plate discipline, unbelievable speed and athleticism and while he isn’t much of a power threat, that part of his game is still developing. As rough as 2007 started, his recovery in the second half of the season (he hit .313 in 67 Triple-A at bats late in the season) shows he can persevere through slumps and be a productive player at the major league level. We will see just how productive he can be, as he’ll get a shot to win a roster spot out of spring training despite being just 21 years old.

9) Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees
Joba was flat-out filthy as the Yanks set-up man this season, striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings while posting a 0.38 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his first 24 major league innings. Yankees brass have gone back and forth on whether he’ll be in the rotation or bullpen this season, and it looks as though his role is as a starter, but either way he’s a worthwhile investment for fantasy owners.

10) Brandon Wood, 3B, Angels
Wood has drawn comparison to Orioles’ Hall-of-Famer Cal Ripken for his combination of power, bat speed, and defense, but it would be just as fair to compare his affinity for striking out to Adam Dunn. Coincidentally, Wood’s strikeout-u-litis is much the same blemish Troy Glaus possessed when he came up through the Angels minor league system and things worked out relatively well for him. Wood has come through the system as a shortstop, and while he has transitioned well to playing third, the hot corner is no less crowded in Southern California. Regardless, it’s difficult to ignore a talent who has contended for Minor League Player of the Year awards, set a team minor league record for homers in a season, and progressed through the system quicker than some other prospects. Injuries and other developments will certainly open up some time for Wood in Anaheim this season, but fantasy owners investing in him should expect significant growing pains as he continues to adjust to major league pitching.

11) Homer Bailey, SP, Reds
In 45 innings with the big league club last season, Homer went 4-2, but posted a 5.76 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and struck out a mere 5.6 batters per nine innings. Doh! A groin strain and rocky adjustment to the majors had a little something to do with the bumps in the road, but it shouldn’t overshadow his bright future. The reality of it is, the Reds have only a couple pitchers locked into rotation spots and very few of the other candidates for spots possess the mid-90’s fastball, 12-to-6 curveball, and cutter that Bailey can boast. He has nearly everything teams look for in an ace, with the only missing ingredient being the necessary polish on his control and command to get major league hitters out consistently. If he isn’t already locked up long term in keeper leagues, he should be one of the first pitching prospects owners select this coming season.

12) Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Athletics
The prize of the deal that sent ace Dan Haren to the desert, Gonzalez should hit his way to the bay at some point this season. His natural swing is a thing of beauty and his bat speed and the power generated from it are the reason the baseball jumps off his lumber. His .288 average, 17 bombs, 72 runs, 86 RBI, and 10 steals in 500 at bats between Double and Triple-A last season attest that he is very capable of being an offensive force. The biggest knock scouts have mentioned is that Gonzo sometimes loses focus and appears to hustle less and give less effort at times, which contradicts another scouting report that claims the 22-year old wants to be a star and has the make-up to achieve that dream. Perhaps a change of locale is what the doctor ordered in order for him to put forth the necessary effort to ascend to the majors and become a star.

13) Wade Davis, SP, Rays
After concluding the 2006 season with a no-hitter at low-A, he continued his ascent towards the majors with a solid 2007 that included a promotion to Double-A and a 7-3 record, 2.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.6 K/9IP between two levels of ball. He has a great fastball that can hit 97 on the gun and a hard curve, cutter, and changeup that are lacking polish at this stage in his career. Once he develops a couple of those into major league quality offerings and improves his command even more, he should be a mainstay in the Rays rotation, the only question being where. “You never want to say a guy is a true No. 1 starter, but he might be better than a No. 2,” a second AL scout told Baseball America.

14) Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers
LaRoche has a solid approach to hitting and the bat speed and strength to produce big power numbers. The problem was he lost sight of the approach that resulted in his minor league success when he was thrust onto a bigger stage—namely, playing in the majors in one of the largest markets in baseball. Sure he needs to put a little more polish on his game—particularly on the defensive side—but it seems odd that the Dodgers appear unwilling to commit to him even after the hiccup in his first significant trial in the big leagues. Declining veteran Nomar Garciaparra is penciled into the starting third base role, but he’s hardly the poster boy for great health, so if the Dodgers don’t bring in another veteran to man the hot corner, they may finally be forced to rally around LaRoche. Fantasy owners could be so lucky.

15) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox
In his first major-league start as the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury went 4-for-5 with two doubles, two runs, and two RBI. He was also very effective at two minor league levels, hitting .323 with 82 runs, 41 RBI, and 41 steals in 436 combined at bats. It’s clear he’s a better option than Coco Crisp and could be the centerfielder the team has been searching for since the departure of Johnny Damon. So why is he lower on my list than possibly anywhere else? I’m happy for the Red Sox that he provided a sparkplug to their success last season, but fantasy owners should be realistic in that he isn’t going to maintain a .353 average or hit more than 15 homers in a season. That leaves him as a speedy outfielder capable of racking up runs and steals, which is enough to make him a great asset to fantasy clubs, albeit one worth less than some other top prospects.

16) Travis Snider, OF, Blue Jays
When J.P. Ricciardi was named the Jays general manager back in 2001, so began a stretch in which nary a high school talent was drafted. When Snider was plucked off draft boards in 2006, he became the first high school player selected during Ricciardi’s tenure. He is still just 19-years old and like most teenage ballplayers, strikeouts continue to be an issue (with a whopping 129 in 457 at bats). He did hit .313 with 16 long balls, 72 runs, 93 RBI at Single-A Lancaster, so he is as talented as advertised, but the Jays aren’t obligated to get him on their 40-man roster before the end of the 2009 season. He has the base skills to grow into one of the best young players in the AL East, but that maturation process won’t conclude quickly enough for him to make a fantasy impact before the end of this season.

17) Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers
It’s a little difficult to rank a pitching prospect that is less than a year removed from high school and who has yet to throw a pitch in a minor league game, but Porcello deserves a spot this high. There are more than a handful of people, including the 18-year old’s agent Scott Boras, who believe he is the best high school hurler since Josh Beckett and that is why he was rewarded with a record-setting deal worth a guaranteed $7.3 million—topping the $7.0 million stash Beckett received back in 1999. The Tigers were quick to make Porcello aware of how aggressively they have promoting their top pitchers—2006 draft pick (pitcher Andrew Miller) has already been called to the bigs and that both Justin Verlander and Joel “Guitar Hero King” Zumaya made the majors by the age of 23. This should make it clear to the teenager as well as fantasy owners that Ricky will indeed give ‘em the heater and move quickly through the Tigers system.

18) Daric Barton, 1B, Athletics
Barton exemplifies everything the Athletics have coveted in a hitter in recent memory— namely, off the charts plate discipline. He hit .293 with a .389 on base percentage at Triple-A Sacramento and was even more impressive in a brief stint by the Bay, hitting .347 with four homers, 16 runs, and eight RBI in 72 at bats. His power hasn’t materialized yet, but there is a natural loft in his perfect swing, which profiles to a future spike in the power department. He’s penciled into the starting first baseman role and while Dan Johnson could steal some at bats, it’s clear that management believes Barton is a cornerstone of their future.

19) Adam Miller, SP, Indians
Despite his ridiculously huge upside, I couldn’t move Miller up and yet resisted the temptation to move him down any further, with his inability to shake elbow and finger injuries being the reason why. Despite a 9.00 ERA in the Arizona Fall League, he posted a 3.7 K:BB ratio, struck out 7.6 and was working on developing his change-up into as high a quality offering as his fastball and slider already are. The problem for fantasy owners is that there is enough risk already when it comes to investing in prospects, so putting your faith in one who has shown they can’t stay healthy, no matter what their potential, seems like a questionable strategy.

20) Jacob McGee, SP, Rays
The D-Rays really have developed a wealth of arms at the minor league level and McGee is one of the best of the bunch. While he still struggles with command of his secondary pitches, he was more than effective this season, going 8-6 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9IP in 140 combined innings between Single and Double-A. The Rays like to take their time developing young pitchers, so McGee will need to take a gigantic step forward in order to earn a promotion from Double-A in 2008.

21) Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
Wieters was considered the top hitter in the 2007 draft by Baseball America. While he signed too late to play ball this season, he was able to participate in the Hawaiian Winter League, where he ranked among the top prospects, hitting .283 in 106 at bats. It’s no surprise he was successful, as he is a complete package of skills both at the plate and behind it. His approach at the plate is advanced for his experience level, as evidenced by his bat speed, plate discipline, and smooth, line drive swing. He’ll start the season at Single-A, but could move very fast if he performs well and the performance of veteran backstop Ramon Hernandez continue to slide.

22) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
Votto is ready for a major league job, but the Reds exercised their option of veteran Scott Hatteberg and have Jorge Cantu lingering around trying to steal at bats. It’s hard to imagine either veteran serving as a huge roadblock to Votto’s success at the major league level, especially if his 3-for-3 effort in his first major league start is any indication. It wasn’t all easy in 2007 though, as he hit just .192 in April before he cleaned up what was becoming a long swing and got back on track at the plate. His .321 average through his first 84 major league at bats confirms that he’s ready for Cincy once the team is comfortable ushering their veterans to the bench. Until then, fantasy owners will have to wait patiently.

23) Franklin Morales, SP, Rockies
Morales started eight games after being called up late last season and the results were positive, as he went 3-2 with a 3.43 ERA, and 1.23 WHIP. Things got a little rockier (no pun intended) in the postseason, as he gave up 15 hits, 11 earned runs, and four walks while striking out six in 10 innings of work. The positive thing to take from his playoff struggles is that he has always been the type of player who shrugs off his not-so-shining moments and focuses on taking the necessary steps to improve his game. The Rox have him penciled in as their fourth starter this season, but if he doesn’t impress in spring camp, the team won’t hesitate to give him some more seasoning at Triple-A Colorado Springs.

24) Johnny Cueto, SP, Reds
Former Reds ace Mario Soto has taken Cueto under his wing and molded him into one of the top pitching prospects in the Reds system. That progress was obvious during a 2007 season that saw Cueto jump all the way from Single-A Sarasota to Triple-A Louisville. He does a great job mixing up hitters by setting them up with his 94-mph fastball and then baffling them with a polished slider and great changeup—both major league quality pitches. Given the fact that the Reds hope to pickup a veteran starting pitcher this offseason, Cueto is without a rotation spot and will likely start the season back at Triple-A. He has very little left to prove at the minor league level given his command of an above average arsenal of pitches, so expect him to be one of the first pitchers called to Great American Ball Park.

25) Jordan Schafer, OF, Braves
The turnaround in Schafer’s young career came in 2007, after an offseason of dedicated focus on his game helped him refine his approach. His plate discipline has advanced to the point where he recognizes exactly what opposing pitchers are scheming against him and reacts to it with a polished line drive stroke. On top of that, his speed is obvious both in the field and on the base paths, which is enough reason to project him as a future 20-20 player.

26) Reid Brignac, SS, Rays
Brignac seems to be overshadowed by bigger name talent quite often, but the fact he led the Southern League with 52 extra-base hits this season should open some eyes to the kind of potential he has. After a brutal early season slump, a six game stretch in July in which he hit .414 with four doubles and two homers got him back on track for the season. He is continuing to develop as a hitter and when he doesn’t fall victim to try to hit the long ball, he can keep his hands back and hit to all fields with ease. He still has his fair share of doubters, but if he is diligent about improving his approach at the plate, he can become an above average major-league shortstop—a position no longer blocked in Tampa Bay due to B.J. Upton sliding to centerfield and Josh Wilson and Ben Zobrist qualifying as mediocre major leaguers.

27) Ian Kennedy, SP, Yankees
Kennedy was another one of the Yankees investments that started to show promise of paying off in three starts this season. In 19 innings over said three starts, Kennedy picked up his first big-league win while positing a 1.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He’s expected to claim a rotation spot this spring and given the Yankees ability to pile on the run support, he should have a very good chance of racking up the wins while not having an adverse affect on fantasy owners ERA and WHIP.

28) Fautino De Los Santos, SP, Athletics
The 21-year old De Los Santos has yet to pitch above Single-A despite an impressive showing last year to the tune of a 10-5 record, 2.65 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.3 K/9IP over 122.1 innings. Jerry Owens, his manager at single-A Kannapolis, told MiLB that, “His stuff is always good. With him, it’s just a matter of command.” As with most pitchers, developing command is only a matter of time, and Fautino should start doing so this season at Double-A.

29) Nick Adenhart, SP, Angels
Adenhart has progressed slowly since being drafted back in 2004, yet he’s shown more than enough progress to convince the Angels he is past the Tommy John surgery he had back in 2004. He has great command of a mid-90’s fastball, a circle changeup, and tight, knee-buckling curveball and he is aggressive with those offerings, remaining unafraid of challenging hitters. There are enough question marks in the Angels rotation—whether it’s due to injury history or past inconsistency—to suggest Adenhart will get a shot at some point this season. When he does, it would be best if keeper league owners already have him stashed on their bench.

30) Carlos Triunfel, SS, Mariners
When I think about what I was doing at age 17, hitting .296 in 371 minor league at bats wasn’t on the list. Triunfel turns 18 in February and after a successful 2007 season, it’s not difficult to fathom the Mariners starting him at Double-A West Tennessee this season. While that would be unheard of for most players his age, he’s already proven he can handle Single-A pitching, if the average, 51 runs, 39 RBI, and seven steals in 96 games is any indication. The Mariners have a talented young shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt and Triunfel will have to display consistent progress at each minor league level to stay on the fast track to the big leagues. “While the average is there, he’s yet to show he can work a count and he hasn’t hit for power,” one scout told the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. “He’s doing all of this, impressively, with his natural abilities and instincts. That would be like putting a newborn baby at the wheel of a sports car and seeing it shift into third as it merged onto the interstate. It just doesn’t happen.” That certainly puts into perspective just how incredible the young shortstop could become, but even in a perfect scenario, it’s difficult to imagine him getting the call to Safeco Field until late 2009 at the earliest, thus eliminating him from consideration in keeper leagues that require players see major league time to be eligible to be kept. Even so, his package of skills is impressive enough to justify his inclusion on this list as well as fantasy owners keeping him on their radar.

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