I always place quite a significant value on up and coming talent because I restrict my participation in fantasy baseball to keeper leagues. Some may look at that as snooty, but I really like the feeling I get when my homework pays off and I lock up a player for five years of their productive career.

Buchholz versus Kershaw is definitely a tough one. Obviously on 2008 potential I think it’s Buchholz and it isn’t close. The best thing as a keeper league owner is that both pitchers have clean mechanics so you aren’t looking at a pitcher like the Twins Francisco Liriano who has a high ceiling, but is creating injuries for himself due to mechanics. All pitchers can sustain injuries, but if they have clean mechanics, they at least are doing their part to avoid them.

I’m going to stick with Buchholz as a better long term value with a higher ceiling at this point. Here’s why. I have less confidence in the Dodgers organization to build a winner right now, or in the next five years than I do the front office in Fenway. It means a lot to know that young pitcher is going to get plenty of offensive and defensive support from his teammates. On top of that I think Kershaw lacks significant experience at the upper levels of the minors and Baseball HQ has done some nice research on the correlation of time spent at Triple-A to a pitchers success in their first full season in the majors. Their research suggests that only 17% of pitchers called up after less than a full year of experience at Triple-A enjoyed success at the major league level. Obviously Kershaw is as an elite of pitching talent as you’ll find, but it’s foolish to assume he’s exempt from these guidelines. I think he needs to continue to develop his changeup and command of all his plus offerings. Once he does that he’ll join Buchholz in the bigs, but as a keeper league owner who needs to be particularly concerned about what I’m going to get from a player over the next 3-5 years, my money is on Buch.

Allen Taylor