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Filed under: Transaction Analysis
Maybe Mr. Mets’ efforts worked.
Before I get too far ahead of myself I suppose I should apologize for my skepticism over local Minnesota sports writer Charley Walters prognosticating that a deal was imminent in the next 10 days. I believe it only took about two.
Of course nothing is final until pitcher Johan Santana passes a physical and agrees to a contract extension, but it sounds like the Twins have finally agreed to trade him to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. While Minnesota wasn’t able to pry heralded No. 1 prospect (outfielder Fernando Martinez) from the Mets, they did end up with four of their top seven prospects, according to Baseball America.
It goes without saying that some of the notable Mets are pleased with the move.
“For our younger pitchers to develop under a guy like Pedro, a guy like Johan, you can’t ask for any better situation,” third baseman David Wright told the Associated Press. “He’s going to go out there and he’s going to give you seven or eight innings every five days and he’s going to get you a win. That’s just what it comes down to. I’ve gotten a chance to get to know him a little bit the past couple years. He seems like a great clubhouse guy. He’s going to fit in perfectly with the chemistry that we have.”
What Wright should add is accolades for GM Omar Minaya. Heck, while we’re at it we could even dole out some compliments for Yankees unofficial GM Hank Steinbrenner and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein for their persistence in not breaking in and giving Twins counterpart Bill Smith everything he asked for. After all, Johan requested a trade, obviously putting more pressure on the Twins to make a deal than the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.
The prize of the deal–at least in my eyes–is Guerra, who won’t turn 19 until the third week of the 2008 season and is probably the farthest away from the majors of any of the players heading west to Minny. The Mets have been almost meticulous in monitoring his workload and it’s obviously justified given his bout of shoulder tendinitis in 2007. He needs time to polish up his command and approach on the mound, but if any franchise can mold him into a front-of-the-rotation starter, it’s probably the Twins.
This deal doesn’t significantly affect the fantasy value of the players heading to Minnesota. Some experts claim Carlos Gomez’s fantasy value will spike because of the fact he’ll be the odds on favorite to break camp as the starting center fielder. I question what they like about his .232 average and 27 strikeouts in 125 at bats last year. Sure he stole 12 bases during that stretch, but he clearly hasn’t shown he’s on the cusp of stardom. As far as Santana goes, I think the deal makes him even more valuable. He’ll get more consistent run support and should find winning games that much easier. For one thing, he gets to face a pitcher once every nine batters and it should be amusing in an America’s Funniest Home Videos sort of way to watch NL pitchers try to flail away at a Santana offering. On top of that, Shea Stadium has typically been regarded as a better pitchers park than the Metrodome, despite recent trends in ballpark factors over the last few seasons. While there are at least eight or nine hitters I would take before I even remotely considered drafting a starting pitcher in the first round of my fantasy leagues, there is little doubt in my mind that Johan could return the necessary value to return such an investment.
As we return from fantasy to reality, I think it’s obvious that your average Minnesota fan won’t be willing to accept the fact that it could take three years before we have a thorough idea of just how much value the Twins got out of this deal. Given the fact these fans are suffering through Star Defection Syndrome after seeing so many stars pack their bags and head east, it’s understandable that it won’t be easy to stomach for most fans. In the end, there is no doubt in my mind it was the right move for the Twins franchise. Why? Because it’s tough to invest five or six years at $25 million per in a pitcher, given they’re more likely than position players to succumb to an injury.
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