Few middle infield prospects have been as hyped as Howie Kendrick over the decade. I’m as guilty as most fantasy analysts. As anyone who has read my past work at Fanball knows when I discuss Kendrick, I like to cite the work done at Baseball Prospectus regarding a stat they call translated batting average (TBA). TBA tries to take the luck factor out of the equation and put all hitters on as even of a playing field as possible. Right before Kendrick’s rookie season in 2006, they released a study that claimed there were 54 players who posted a TBA of .300 or better in a season in which they were age 22 or younger (minimum 300 AB), and only seven of them made the list twice. The list included Sean Burroughs, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Albert Pujols, Tony Torcato, David Wright, and Howie Kendrick.

Clearly Kendrick’s upside is significant, but it would be unwise for fantasy owners to overlook Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill.

2B Aaron Hill, Blue Jays (Last Two Years)

2B Howie Kendrick, Angels (Last Two Years)

Given the awe-inspiring ability of Howie, it’s been that much more disappointing that injuries have taken a large bite out of the two years he’s spent in the majors. It was a pair of finger injuries that limited him in 2007, but he still managed to post a high contact rate–one of the only positive signs in an otherwise lost season. His fly ball rate (down from 33 % in ‘06 to 30% in ‘07) is declining and that combined with a falling batting eye (BB/K) are reasons to doubt his power ever develops to the extent his ability to hit for average does. Despite that facet of his game being in doubt to a certain extent, Kendrick seems to fit the mold of a post-hype sleeper capable of a breakout season in 2008.

Then there is Aaron Hill who, after three seasons in the big leagues, finally enjoyed something of a power breakout. He had to trade some of his contact rate and batting eye to enjoy the improvement in numbers, but his climbing fly ball rate and ability to drive the ball seem to suggest further improvement isn’t out of the question. If he doesn’t return to a more patient approach at the plate, it will be tough for him to continue to flirt with a .300 average on an annual basis, but he showed last year that his overall game is heading in the right direction.

Comparing Kendrick and Hill’s potential numbers is an interesting process. Hill would seemingly have a significant edge in homers, RBI, and runs, but if he bats near the top of the lineup that could affect his RBI total. His spot in the lineup doesn’t seem settled and I’ve seen him penciled in at No. 2 and No. 7 in two different places, so dialing in his numbers at this point is fairly difficult. That said, Kendrick is pretty much settled in nearly the bottom of the Angels lineup and that makes a prediction of a more modest run total a bit safer. The edge in batting average goes to Kendrick assuming he’s healthy, but the gap between him and Hill in regards to stolen bases seems negligible at best. It’s also tough to argue that either lineup is significantly stronger than the other, providing us with fewer and fewer ways to differentiate the two promising youngsters. When I weigh everything out, I FAVOR HILL IN THIS SHOWDOWN, and not because I’m a biased Blue Jays fan (see my About page). Hill clearly provides more pop and I believe the fact he’ll hit more long balls probably gives him the edge in runs and RBI. That edge is pronounced enough that any miniscule advantage Kendrick may have in terms of average or stolen bases is insignificant, particularly when you consider he’ll cost you an earlier pick or another fistful of auction bucks on drauction day.

Not unlike many baseball analysts, I take everything that happens during spring training with a grain of salt. That said, I don’t believe you can write off EVERYTHING like some experts suggest, as you can get a pretty strong idea about roles, both now and in the future. Prior to the White Sox first spring contest, I was already mildly intrigued by Cuban defector Alexei Ramirez.

When Ramirez became an international free agent, fellow Cuban and White Sox pitcher Jose Contreras urged the team to consider him. The 26-ish year old (as a defector his age is something of a gray area) sure made an impression in his first major league action, going 4-for-5 with a pair of doubles, three runs, and one RBI against the Rockies on Thursday.

“All the coaches around the national team I played for in Cuba told me I could play at this level,” Ramirez told the Chicago Tribune after his first workout this spring. The early results this spring certainly suggest those coaches were right.

“A lot of people say it means nothing,” manager Ozzie Guillen added. “It might mean a lot to him, his first game in the [major leagues] and the way he performed.”

Ramirez led the Cuban pro league in homers last season as an outfielder (he has experience at 2B and SS), and while he projects to be more of a gap hitter in the majors, that was enough reason for the Pale Hose to give him a look when they failed to sign a major league free agent such as Torii Hunter. Reports out of camp claim he looks much leaner than his 6′ 1″ and 180 pounds would suggest, but there is a general sense of intrigue over his athleticism, drive to be successful, and powerful swing that draws comparisons to another Chicago favorite, Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano.

That’s obviously not a fair comparison at this point in his young career, but it speaks volumes about his potential if he can win a regular role with the team. He will see better off-speed pitches and overall talent at the major league level and that is bound to produce some hiccups, but he’s a guy fantasy owners should keep an eye on. Why?

Consider that he’s currently No. 1 on the Sox’s depth chart at second base over at MLB.com and his only competition is Danny Richar (who was delayed in getting to camp with visa issues), and veterans Pablo Ozuna and Juan Uribe.  The stiffest competition figures to come from Uribe who despite hitting 20 or more long balls in each of the last two seasons, has failed to hit over .235 in either season and whiffed 112 in 513 at bats last season. No team wants to admit their ceiling is limited in the coming season, but the White Sox aren’t projected to be a playoff team, which should suggest they consider the significant potential of the young Cuban versus the average (at best) production they figure to get from the alternatives. If it seems as though he’ll get a decent number of at bats this season, fantasy owners should still only consider him as an option in keeper league formats.

After seeing today’s Seattle Times, two things are clear: 1) a snowball might have a chance in hell and 2) this post isn’t going to be brimming with fantasy advice.

There is a new reason to take Miguel Batista off your rankings, and it’s not an elbow injury. He confessed to his motivation for starting saxophone lessons last summer: the fingernails on a chalkboard, nausea-inducing sounds of Kenny G.

“He played for me,” Batista told the Seattle Times regarding meeting his idol. “It was my favorite song, ‘Alone.’ Now, I feel like I’ve had everything. I’ve talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I’d be served. I’d be complete.”

Yeah folks, he compared Kenny G to Sandy Koufax not to mention the Big G. God. He compared Kenny G to God. Hold on a second, my laptop is shaking while I convulse with gut-wrenching laughter. Heck, maybe the “G” in Kenny G refers to God?

Nope…it refers to Gorelick.

So does this mean that he’ll demand Kenneth Gorelick (Kenny’s real name) provide his warm up music in Safeco? We wouldn’t wish that upon our worst enemy, but the Safeco Field faithful should be aware of the fact that the odds of Kenny playing the national anthem prior to one of Batista’s 2008 starts have been set as even. Heck fantasy owners may even want to pick him up if they get ahold of the date Kenny is penciled in for, because it just may be enough motivation for Batista to toss the best game of his career.

EDITORS NOTE: In looking up Kenny G images for this post, it came to my attention that there is actually an album called “The Essential Kenny G.” Kenny G is not essential. Deoderant is essential. Toothpaste is essential. Not Kenny G.

So the fine folks at Mock Draft Central just held their third experts mock draft of the spring last night and while I didn’t participate, a good friend and former Fanball colleague of mine (Christian Peterson) did. I tend to agree with Christian on many player values and as a result I thought it would be worthwhile to give a brief summary of my thoughts on the draft.

EARLY ROUNDS

It’s early, but I’ve determined who isn’t subscribing to the position scarcity strategy. That would be Darryl Houston Smith, who selected Rockies outfielder Matt Holliday with the second overall pick. It’s tough to argue with his numbers, but it seems like an as talented player at a position with far less depth might’ve been a better choice. As a result there are at least six other players I might take before Holliday, including David Wright, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Johan Santana, Ryan Howard, and possibly even Jimmy Rollins.

I know CP wasn’t thrilled with his pick of David Ortiz in the second round and while I agree with him, it’s tough to be disgusted with Big Papi. That said, I would’ve taken Brandon Phillips, BJ Upton, or Carlos Lee over Ortiz. On the flip side, I certainly wouldn’t take Carlos Beltran (R2 P6), who sports a pair of questionable knees that he had scoped this offseason and have yet to heal, not to mention a banged up left triceps.

Ugh, Ryan Boyer is building himself a nice collection of outfielders that could be feast or famine this season with three of his first four picks being Beltran, Vladimir Guerrero, and Manny Ramirez. Obviously Vlad is the safest of the three, but wouldn’t it have made more sense to grab a great value in Garrett Atkins over Manny?

Oh that’s cute, Chris Young the outfielder and Chris Young the pitcher in back-to-back picks.

Darryl Houston Smith made a great move picking Brewers outfielder Corey Hart with the 11th pick in the sixth round. A 25-year old on the cusp of the first of what could be many 30-30 seasons (he was 24-23 last year), on a team that’s on the up and up is incredible value at the back of the sixth round.

MIDDLE ROUNDS

Wow…Adrian Gonzalez in the ninth round seems like great value, but if you’ve scoured over my rankings and read other articles I’ve written, I suppose I’m a bit biased. That said, he’s just 25 and fresh off his first season of 30 homers, 100 runs, and 100 RBI.

The 11th round presented an interesting conundrum: Francisco Liriano versus Yovani Gallardo. I think too many experts are expecting Liriano to show up and pitch like he didn’t miss a beat. The guy had Tommy John and the typical timeline following that procedure is that the player returns after a year and works to rebuild their strength. In recent years we’ve seen that when that player reaches their second year post-op, they’re capable of not only regaining their strength, but in some cases being even stronger than before the surgery. This is the reason why I believe Liriano is going to be a roller coaster ride for his fantasy owners this season. Meanwhile, you have owners overreacting on Gallardo’s injury and while it very well may hinder him from being full strength before the dawn of summer, he’s certainly a safer bet for productive numbers than Liriano.

OTHER VALUE PICKS

1. (R13 P10) Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals
2. (R13 P11) Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays
3. (R14, P7) Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins
4. (R14, P11) J.R. Towles, C, Astros
5. (R15, P2) Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays
6. (R15, P7) Willy Taveras, OF, Rockies
7. (R15, P8) Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers
8. (R15, P9) Ryan Garko, 1b, Indians
9. (R17, P7) Joe Blanton, SP, Athletics
10. (R18, P9) Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs
11. (R18, P12) Ty Wigginton, 2B/3B, Astros
12. (R21, P5) Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians
13. (R22, P2) Jason Kubel, OF, Twins
14. (R23, P9) Scott Baker, SP, Twins

My “Line of Questioning” series of articles over at Mock Draft Central continues with a look at the AL Central. In this series I’m looking at the top 10 questions that I think fantasy owners want answered in each division. There are probably other questions left out that you’d like answers to, but I picked the ones I thought were the most interesting. You’ll find the AL Central article here.

I’m not going to have time to go into depth on Tuesday’s developments with Scott Kazmir, but the story is linked here. It sounds like the Rays will play it safe with him and let him rest between now and Opening Day, which is obviously the right thing to do.

Fortunately, it sounds like stiffness was the culprit in his elbow and nothing more serious than that.

There are many things we do on an annual basis, including celebrate birthdays or anniversaries, travel, and renew our license plate tabs to name a few. In the case of Astros first baseman/outfielder Lance Berkman, you can add injure your oblique muscle to that list.

Berkman has actually injured his oblique in each of the last five spring training camps, but it sounds like the recent tweak may be bad. “This is the worst I’ve ever done it,” Berkman told MLB.com. “But, we still have six weeks until the season starts.”

The injury occurred during a full-squad workout last week and while he’s been able to swing a bat right handed, he added that he doesn’t expect to swing left-handed for a few more days. His manager Cecil Cooper didn’t necessarily agree with Berkman’s take however. “It might even be longer as far as I’m concerned,” Cooper told MLB.com. “That’s what I’m thinking. I’m not even thinking about three or four days. This is Lance Berkman. This is the Big Puma. And we have to make sure that the Big Puma is fine.”

Big Puma? I suppose that is less corny than something like “Lance-a-lot,” but you really should try harder to earn that endorsement from Puma. In all seriousness, it seems premature to adjust your first base rankings until we see Berkman out of game action for a week or two. He does have plenty of time to heal before games start to count, and at this point it seems safe to hedge our bets given the fact it hasn’t had a major impact on him the last four times he suffered through the malady.

Just a quick post to make my readers aware of the new address for 108 stitches. You will still be able to access the site with the URL you’ve become familiar with (108stitches.wordpress.com), but I’ve finangled my way through the administrative steps to get my hands on the web address: the108stitches.com.

So please start using that URL despite the fact either will get you to your intended destination. Thanks and just to let you know I am always open to your feedback! I will receive your feedback if you post a comment on the “Ask the Expert” page, and it won’t necessarily post to the site. Thanks.

When closer Brad Lidge felt his surgically-repaired knee grab awkwardly following his first pitch of Saturday’s session, the Phillies feared the worst. While they probably avoided it, the news wasn’t real positive following Lidge’s exam on Sunday.

“No big, new tears, nothing substantially wrong, but enough on the medial side of the knee that would warrant a scope.” Lidge told the Philadelphia Inquirer. “We’re going to do a scope and clean out some of the small tears and get that done with, so it won’t bother me during the season.”

It’s expected to take him three to six weeks to recover from the surgery. “The scope has a pretty fast recovery time,” Lidge said. “Ideally, if everything went right I wouldn’t miss any of the season. That’d be a good 4 1/2 weeks (away). But that’ll be based on how it feels, obviously.

This injury comes less than five months since he had surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee on October 1.

“The first week (after surgery) you’re off it, and then you start going pretty good after that,” Lidge added. “It’s three to six weeks before games.”

The Phillies paid a significant enough price to acquire Lidge from the Astros in November, giving up a package of prospects highlighted by speedy outfielder Michael Bourn, and now they’ll be faced with the proposition of using Tom Gordon to close out games to start the season.

Gordon fizzled out in the second half of last season, posting a measly 6.1 K/9IP and 2.5 BB/K Rate. He’ll be a mediocre, but necessary handcuff at the draft table this spring. With any luck, Lidge will be back closing out games by the middle of April, but I’m skeptical that he’ll be even remotely close to full strength when he does return to competitive play. Prior to the injury Lidge was sliding in drafts, being selected as late as the 16th round. Now it appears that slide will be justified.

Who Shot J.R.?

Okay, now that we got that feeble attempt at 1980’s prime time television humor out of the way, we can get down to business.

GEOVANY SOTO (Cubs) versus J.R. TOWLES (Astros)

Soto’s 2007 stats

54 at bats, .389 average, 12 runs, three HR, eight RBI, and zero stolen bases

Towles’ 2007 stats

40 at bats, .375 average, nine runs, one HR, 12 RBI, and zero stolen bases

Despite the fact that Soto is so highly regarded by most fantasy experts heading into the season, this showdown between the Cubbies backstop and Towles is a very tough one. Soto was a career .262 hitter in the minor leagues and that, along with his average contact rate ((at bats - K) / at bats) and a low fly ball rate leaves me skeptical of his ability to hit for consistent power or average. Of course he exploded for a .353 average, 26 homers, 75 runs, and 109 RBI at Triple-A, winning the Pacific Coast League MVP honors in the process. I still go back to the fact it was the only time he hit above .270 and the 26 bombs were more than he crushed combined in three previous minor league seasons.

Meanwhile, Towles is a career .287 minor league hitter who rose all the way from Single-A to the majors last season. He hit .324 with 11 homers, 47 runs, and 49 RBI in 216 at Double-A, which was where he spent the majority of the 2007 season, but set a single-game Astros’ franchise record with eight RBI against the Cardinals in a September 20th game last year. His contact rate, fly ball rate, and batting eye (BB/K) are all noticeably better than Soto’s, but the knock on him is a lack of playing time at the upper levels of the minors. It’s certainly worth citing the research of people like Baseball HQ, which suggests that players with less than a full year at Triple-A struggle in their first full major league season.

As previously mentioned, it’s difficult to choose a winner in this battle of sleeper catchers. The lineups of both the Cubs and Astros figure to be well beyond formidable and the competition for playing time for both young catchers is minimal at best. Sure, the Astros have had a sense of loyalty to Brad Ausmus throughout the years, and while he’ll still get some at bats, they may have finally realized it could be nice to get improved offensive numbers from their catcher–something they haven’t had since the early days of Craig Biggio, when he was still behind the plate.

Even Towles was surprised at being named the starting catcher recently, telling the Associated Press, “I thought I was a couple of years away. They told me, ‘You just never know when your time is. Strange things can happen.’ This definitely seemed like a strange thing.”I contend that it is often strange circumstances from which some of the best young players in baseball emerge and that type of situation is certainly present for J.R. While Soto has had a chance to strut his stuff on a bigger stage (postseason), I FAVOR TOWLES IN THIS SHOWDOWN because of his slight edge when I compare their skill sets and how they may project out at the major league level as well as the fact he’ll probably come cheaper at my draft or auction. For fantasy owners it comes down to not who shot J.R., but are you willing to give J.R. a shot?