CBRACKE
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Filed under: Strategy
Let’s finish what we started with a look at some of the stats I use when analyzing hitters.
ON BASE PERCENTAGE + SLUGGING PERCENTAGE (OPS): The on base percentage does a better job of telling us how a player is doing at the plate than batting average. It does this by drawing in walks and measuring a batters ability to get on base. Slugging percentage is the other half of the equation and measures a batters ability to advance baserunners. By measuring the OBP and SLG we can forecast a players ability to pile up RBI and hit for a decent average.
HIT RATE (H%): A player’s hit rate represents the number of balls hit into the field of play that fall in for base hits. In common terms it’s essentially the luck factor. Players establish a career rate and while their luck varies from season to season, but their rate typically doesn’t fluctuate wildly. You can look at the H% of players who had down seasons and determine if luck, or lack thereof, played a role in their numbers and could revert to the mean.
CONTACT RATE (Ct%): A player’s contact rate can tell you alot about their potential to hit for a solid batting average. To calculate Ct%, you subtract strikeouts from at bats and divide that number by the number of at bats. The Ct% foretells a fluctuation in batting average because any time a batter puts the ball in play they have a chance to get a hit and thus, bump up their average.
STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO (K:BB Ratio, Eye): The K:BB ratio or Batting Eye as some people call it, tells the story of how patient a hitter is at the plate. The closer a batter’s walk total is to their strikeout total, the better discipline they are displaying at the plate. If a walk total is particularly high, we can also assume that he’s only swinging at good pitches and if pitchers respond to that and are forced to pitch to him, a greater number of hits could follow. It’s best to look for hitters with a K:BB ratio of at least 3.5 and those with a 4.0 mark or better are the cream of the crop.
STOLEN BASES: Baseball HQ created a measurement called Speed Index that takes a players speed, divides it by the average speed of all major league hitters, and multiplies it by 100. It’s a strong measurement to get an idea of the natural speed a player possesses. Otherwise, it’s tough to project how many steals a player may pile up in the upcoming season. You can look at managerial tendencies, but you must remember that studies suggest you need to steal three bases to offset the impact of every time a player was caught stealing. Since it is difficult to project and therefore draft for speed, stolen bases often become disproportionately valuable and that can been seen in some of the projections certain people in the industry are putting together.
Those are just a couple ideas on how to evaluate hitters as you prepare for your upcoming draft. I don’t always use all of these, or all of the pitching stats either, but with experience I have learned how to use all of them to help me continue to be a competitive manager of my fantasy baseball teams.
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