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Who Shot J.R.?
Okay, now that we got that feeble attempt at 1980’s prime time television humor out of the way, we can get down to business.
GEOVANY SOTO (Cubs) versus J.R. TOWLES (Astros)
Soto’s 2007 stats
54 at bats, .389 average, 12 runs, three HR, eight RBI, and zero stolen bases
Towles’ 2007 stats
40 at bats, .375 average, nine runs, one HR, 12 RBI, and zero stolen bases
Despite the fact that Soto is so highly regarded by most fantasy experts heading into the season, this showdown between the Cubbies backstop and Towles is a very tough one. Soto was a career .262 hitter in the minor leagues and that, along with his average contact rate ((at bats - K) / at bats) and a low fly ball rate leaves me skeptical of his ability to hit for consistent power or average. Of course he exploded for a .353 average, 26 homers, 75 runs, and 109 RBI at Triple-A, winning the Pacific Coast League MVP honors in the process. I still go back to the fact it was the only time he hit above .270 and the 26 bombs were more than he crushed combined in three previous minor league seasons.
Meanwhile, Towles is a career .287 minor league hitter who rose all the way from Single-A to the majors last season. He hit .324 with 11 homers, 47 runs, and 49 RBI in 216 at Double-A, which was where he spent the majority of the 2007 season, but set a single-game Astros’ franchise record with eight RBI against the Cardinals in a September 20th game last year. His contact rate, fly ball rate, and batting eye (BB/K) are all noticeably better than Soto’s, but the knock on him is a lack of playing time at the upper levels of the minors. It’s certainly worth citing the research of people like Baseball HQ, which suggests that players with less than a full year at Triple-A struggle in their first full major league season.
As previously mentioned, it’s difficult to choose a winner in this battle of sleeper catchers. The lineups of both the Cubs and Astros figure to be well beyond formidable and the competition for playing time for both young catchers is minimal at best. Sure, the Astros have had a sense of loyalty to Brad Ausmus throughout the years, and while he’ll still get some at bats, they may have finally realized it could be nice to get improved offensive numbers from their catcher–something they haven’t had since the early days of Craig Biggio, when he was still behind the plate.
Even Towles was surprised at being named the starting catcher recently, telling the Associated Press, “I thought I was a couple of years away. They told me, ‘You just never know when your time is. Strange things can happen.’ This definitely seemed like a strange thing.”I contend that it is often strange circumstances from which some of the best young players in baseball emerge and that type of situation is certainly present for J.R. While Soto has had a chance to strut his stuff on a bigger stage (postseason), I FAVOR TOWLES IN THIS SHOWDOWN because of his slight edge when I compare their skill sets and how they may project out at the major league level as well as the fact he’ll probably come cheaper at my draft or auction. For fantasy owners it comes down to not who shot J.R., but are you willing to give J.R. a shot?
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