Now back to Berkman. Over the last five seasons, he’s hit 35 homers or more just once. While his overall numbers in most of those seasons were obviously very solid, it suggests that the gap between him and Adrian isn’t pronounced. If you are able to spend the earlier pick that you would’ve spent on Berkman on another valuable bat at a position with less depth, you could pick up Gonzo at least two (if not more) rounds later.

Atkins is certainly more interesting as a 3B. I think people soured on him early last year and might not realize how good his second half was after seeing that his total numbers decreased across the board from 2006. Hence, he’s probably ranked lower right now than he was a year ago at this time (the presence of Ryan Braun - who was barely on the radar last February - also pushes Atkins down a notch) and if he hits like he did in the second half he’ll be a good value on draft day.

I still believe that Berkman is a strong option at first base and like past years, will probably be healthy to start the 2008 regular season. That said, I believe that 2007 provides the first evidence that his batting average is probably on the decline. A slide in his BB/9IP, contact rate, and batting eye are reasons enough to believe that this may be a trend.

I think it’s fair to say I’m extremely high on Gonzalez. In much the same way I think Gonzalez will be hard pressed to surpass the .300 mark, but I believe his power is trending north while I feel Berkman’s numbers may have plateaued.

Interestingly enough, in leagues that use 10 game eligiblity, Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins also qualifies at first and while I believe he’s more valuable at the hot corner, mentioning him in the same tier as Berkman and Gonzalez isn’t a stretch by any means. Keep an eye on him this spring to see if he is able to build upon an incredible second half of the 07 season in which he hit .349 with 12 homers, 40 runs, 58 RBI, and a .941 OPS.

Question: You have Berkman ranked behind Adrian Gonzalez… do you dislike Lance or just like Gonzo that much? Most sites have Gonzo more in the 10-ish range, so I’m guessing more the latter than the former.