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Few middle infield prospects have been as hyped as Howie Kendrick over the decade. I’m as guilty as most fantasy analysts. As anyone who has read my past work at Fanball knows when I discuss Kendrick, I like to cite the work done at Baseball Prospectus regarding a stat they call translated batting average (TBA). TBA tries to take the luck factor out of the equation and put all hitters on as even of a playing field as possible. Right before Kendrick’s rookie season in 2006, they released a study that claimed there were 54 players who posted a TBA of .300 or better in a season in which they were age 22 or younger (minimum 300 AB), and only seven of them made the list twice. The list included Sean Burroughs, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Albert Pujols, Tony Torcato, David Wright, and Howie Kendrick.
Clearly Kendrick’s upside is significant, but it would be unwise for fantasy owners to overlook Blue Jays second baseman Aaron Hill.
2B Aaron Hill, Blue Jays (Last Two Years)
| Year | G | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 155 | 546 | .291 | 70 | 6 | 50 | 5 | .349 | .386 | .735 |
| 2007 | 160 | 608 | .291 | 87 | 17 | 78 | 4 | .333 | .459 | .792 |
2B Howie Kendrick, Angels (Last Two Years)
| Year | G | AB | AVG | R | HR | RBI | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2006 | 72 | 267 | .285 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 6 | .314 | .416 | .730 |
| 2007 | 88 | 338 | .322 | 55 | 5 | 39 | 5 | .347 | .450 | .796 |
Given the awe-inspiring ability of Howie, it’s been that much more disappointing that injuries have taken a large bite out of the two years he’s spent in the majors. It was a pair of finger injuries that limited him in 2007, but he still managed to post a high contact rate–one of the only positive signs in an otherwise lost season. His fly ball rate (down from 33 % in ‘06 to 30% in ‘07) is declining and that combined with a falling batting eye (BB/K) are reasons to doubt his power ever develops to the extent his ability to hit for average does. Despite that facet of his game being in doubt to a certain extent, Kendrick seems to fit the mold of a post-hype sleeper capable of a breakout season in 2008.
Then there is Aaron Hill who, after three seasons in the big leagues, finally enjoyed something of a power breakout. He had to trade some of his contact rate and batting eye to enjoy the improvement in numbers, but his climbing fly ball rate and ability to drive the ball seem to suggest further improvement isn’t out of the question. If he doesn’t return to a more patient approach at the plate, it will be tough for him to continue to flirt with a .300 average on an annual basis, but he showed last year that his overall game is heading in the right direction.
Comparing Kendrick and Hill’s potential numbers is an interesting process. Hill would seemingly have a significant edge in homers, RBI, and runs, but if he bats near the top of the lineup that could affect his RBI total. His spot in the lineup doesn’t seem settled and I’ve seen him penciled in at No. 2 and No. 7 in two different places, so dialing in his numbers at this point is fairly difficult. That said, Kendrick is pretty much settled in nearly the bottom of the Angels lineup and that makes a prediction of a more modest run total a bit safer. The edge in batting average goes to Kendrick assuming he’s healthy, but the gap between him and Hill in regards to stolen bases seems negligible at best. It’s also tough to argue that either lineup is significantly stronger than the other, providing us with fewer and fewer ways to differentiate the two promising youngsters. When I weigh everything out, I FAVOR HILL IN THIS SHOWDOWN, and not because I’m a biased Blue Jays fan (see my About page). Hill clearly provides more pop and I believe the fact he’ll hit more long balls probably gives him the edge in runs and RBI. That edge is pronounced enough that any miniscule advantage Kendrick may have in terms of average or stolen bases is insignificant, particularly when you consider he’ll cost you an earlier pick or another fistful of auction bucks on drauction day.
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