On the heels of updating my player rankings, I’ve updated my Top 30 Prospects.

After some encouragement from readers I’ve made an attempt to fine tune the list with 2008 impact in mind. You’ll still find Clayton Kershaw and Matt Wieters on the list, but they are moved down since at best they get a late season call-up. The top five or six remained pretty much the same from my earlier “Top 30” list. You’ll see the list along the left column of this page.

It’s pretty obvious you took a wrong turn somewhere when your home run total for the 2007 season (10) barely exceeds the number of times you’ve been arrested (6) since being drafted.

Such is the well-publicized and often maligned life of Nationals’ outfielder Elijah Dukes, who recently admitted to the USA Today that he needs to, “get it together.” Dukes was dealt to Washington in December in something of a dump deal for the Rays, who were clearly tired of his off the field antics. The final straw was literally a life-threatening phone call to his estranged ex-wife in which he threatened the life of not only her, but also her children.

A press conference held on Wednesday was Dukes’ chance to show the media that the Nats efforts to curb any further lapses in judgement have been effective. “I’ve been working on myself a long time,” Dukes told the Washington Post. “I finally found that breakthrough, and from now on everybody gets a chance to see the real Elijah Dukes.”

The support group the team has built around the promising 23-year old has had a lasting effect on him. The first was retired former All-Star shortstop Barry Larkin, who helped train Dukes in Orlando this winter. The second was an ex-cop named James Williams who is not subjected to the media and, as the Post eloquently put it, “knows “when Dukes goes to the bathroom . . . when he eats . . . when he works out . . . and when he goes back to Tampa.” Dukes describes his relationship with Williams as a father/son type, something he hasn’t been able to have with his real father, who has been in jail for murder since 1996. Finally, the team asked a rehabilitated veteran in first baseman Dmitri Young to mentor the young Dukes through spring training. Young has a history of alcoholism and a similar temper to Dukes, but he was one of the biggest bounceback candidates of the 2007 season and finally seems to have steered his career in the right direction.

Why should fantasy owners believe in a promising slugger with a checkered past? After all, he was the odd man out for a starting spot in the Nats outfield heading into spring training. A seven homer, 15 RBI effort in May sparked some interest from fantasy owners, but he quickly faded back into obscurity. The problem with overlooking him is that scouts have always raved about his natural ability, with Baseball HQ summing up his skill set best by saying he has a “million dollar swing combined with a ten cent head.” It’s worth noting he also has a polished approach at the plate, with an ability to control the strike zone. That approach can bee seen by his .75 batting eye (K/BB) last season in 184 at bats. The league average was .51 in the American League and .49 in the National League. If you combine that ability to judge strikes and balls with his ability to make contact with the ball and an increasing fly ball rate, it’s easy to see why I might suggest a power breakout could be in his future, assuming he can win a more prominent role. It’s not a ludicrous suggestion considering current right fielder Austin Kearns and current center fielder Lastings Milledge posted a .67 and .27 batting eyes in their combined major and minor league at bats last season.

So I didn’t need a press conference to declare my belief in Dukes this coming season, but we got one nonetheless. In said conference, Dukes added, “When I step out on the field, the things you heard in the past is going to go out the window.” I don’t know about you, but those sound like fighting words to me, and if so, it may be time to put up this Dukes.

You are probably sick of hearing about Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols already and it’s still weeks from most league drafts.

If you’ve looked at my rankings recently, you can tell that I’m very concerned about Pujols elbow. It’s difficult to be optimistic considering he opted against surgery to correct a strained ligament in his elbow after he met with specialists regarding the injury. While the numbers suggest otherwise, the injury has actually been an issue for him since 2003. He claims he won’t adjust the way he prepares for the season this spring, but there are certain people who feel otherwise.

In the following article in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, manager Tony LaRussa will consider relying on the “Pujols Rules” to help him monitor the superstar slugger’s health and keep him in the lineup for the majority of the season. “He’ll probably have less at-bats in spring when camp ends than in previous years,” LaRussa told the Post-Dispatch. While Pujols remains adamant that the elbow injury is a thing of the past, his manager is more realistic in his assumption that his star is only one awkward swing or one diving catch at first away from tweaking the injury severely.

On top of limiting him this spring, LaRussa went as far to suggest he’d consider routine days off for Pujols during the season, citing the possibility of Sundays before a day off. What are fantasy owners to make of this possible strategy?

You’ve already seen me adjust my rankings to put Pujols behind a handful of other options at first base and even if Albert plays the majority of spring training I’m sticking to my guns on this one.

If healthy, Pujols figures to lead first baseman in batting average, but the Cardinals lineup is much less potent than it’s been in recent years and there is no question about the fact that not having surgery on an obvious problem having an effect on his numbers is a questionable decision. Don’t think it’s that big of an issue? See his significant enough slide in all five major roto categories last season.

As someone who drafts at the back end of most of my drafts this season (don’t worry, this means I finished well in most of my leagues) I’ve been asking myself the question, “At what point do I have to accept the risk and take a guy who has been an offensive monster his entire career?” The keeper element of my leagues makes this decision a much different one since many players typically available at the back end of the first round are actually kept. I still believe that I trust as many as five other first baseman as much or more than Pujols this season and given the fact there will be significant value still available at the end of the first round, I’m determined to take a pass on the Pujols Rules this season.

Just a quick post to let readers know that the player rankings page was updated tonight. You’ll see some shifting as I aim to dial these in prior to draft day!

My “Line of Questioning” series of articles over at Mock Draft Central continues with a look at the NL East. In this series I’m looking at the top 10 questions that I think fantasy owners want answered in each division. There are probably other questions left out that you’d like answers to, but I picked the ones I thought were the most interesting. You’ll find the NL East article here.

We have a winner for the oddest spring injury!

Astros outfielder Hunter Pence fell through a sliding glass door in the bathroom of his spring training home, leaving him with enough damage to keep him sidelined a week. Pence spent the Monday night in the hospital and reported to camp on Tuesday with a gash on his right finger and brace on his knee.

“I just didn’t see the door and jumped through it,” Pence told the El Paso Times. “I have small cuts everywhere.” The 24-year-old outfielder downplayed the injuries, claiming they weren’t as serious as they looked.

“I didn’t really think I’d go through a glass door,” he said. “I was actually lucky, because none of the glass got stuck in any of my wounds.”

When the Astros held their first full-squad workout on Tuesday, Pence was unable to bend his injured finger. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to think Hunter was trying to reenact the scene from at least a couple of the Bourne movies where one of the villians pursuing Jason Bourne crashes through the window in dramatic fashion. Fortunately, it doesn’t sound like fantasy owners should adjust their rankings because of this injury. In my book, he’ll still rank among the top 25 outfielders in mixed leagues.

So many sites have been publishing their ballpark factors over the last week and I hope to delve deeper into those soon. I’m really curious to see how the factor of the Metrodome (the third best pitchers park in 2007 according to ESPN) fares now that Johan Santana is out of the picture. I agree with those of you who are groaning about the suggestion that a single pitcher could have that much of an impact on the park factor, but I deem it worth exploring so I’ll let you know what I find.

With every additional year I continue to examine ballpark factors, I grow more and more skeptical that how strong an offense the home team has may play too large of a role in the end number. We’ll see after some further research. In the meantime, I wanted to draw your attention to a new page next to the Player Rankings and Top Prospects called “Ask the Expert.” I wanted to create a way to interact with readers more often and effectively and I believe this should do just that while keeping the main page more organized.

As someone who spent the offseason successfully acquiring Brewers future star pitcher Yovani Gallardo, I really didn’t need to start the upcoming week with this news. It turns out that Gallardo has a lateral tear in the meniscus in his left knee and will fly to Milwaukee tomorrow to go under the knife. This is where my former colleagues at Fanball would like me to insert the Anchorman reference to Baxter barking twice if he’s in Milwaukee.

I should be more optimistic, because meniscus tears are not actually that serious, but I gave up a lot to acquire a guy who I strongly believe has potential to mature into the top starting pitcher in baseball. Apparently he suffered the injury during a throwing session and the knee swelled up significantly after the session, leading to the diagnosis. Gallardo is expected to return to Phoenix after the surgery to rehab the injury with the club at the team’s Spring Training facility.

“I don’t think it’s common, but it is an athletic injury and it is a relatively routine procedure and routine recovery time,” assistant general manager Gordon Ash told MLB.com. “As with any medical condition, everybody is different, but we’re guessing right now that, depending on how he handles the surgery and how much swelling there is, that he should be back participating in a month. That puts us at the middle of March. We’re going to be touch-and-go to start the season, but we’ll see.”

As bad as a knee injury sounds, and it is expected to keep him sidelined four weeks, fantasy owners shouldn’t overreact here. The meniscus is the shock absorbing cartilage in your knee and while that obviously plays a major role in the knee’s ability to function, it heals much quicker than say your ACL, MCL, and PCL. The WebMD report on typical recovery from this procedure states that the patient typically keeps the knee immobilized for two weeks before a two week period of limited motion. Rehab begins right after the surgical procedure, but it can be months before heavy exercise is advised.

I contend that a professional athlete is in better shape than your average patient so it’s reasonable to assume their body may respond quicker and more effectively. That said, this sounds like it will be four weeks before he even starts throwing off a mound again. If you can acquire him at a bargain price, now is the time to do so, because after he’s back to 100 percent, it shouldn’t take him long to start making good on his potential.

EDITORS NOTE: Thanks to Chris over at the Disabled List Informer for his comment and additional information regarding Gallardo. You can find that info here.

Everyone has their list of sleepers/undervalued players and fantasy owners make a mad dash to pick up as many of them as possible during their drauction (a term coined by my former colleague John Tuvey to cover those in drafts and those in auctions). So I thought, what if you have a little battle of two sleepers at the same position and thus provide a double-ply approach to providing sleepers. I got a pretty strong response on the first column in this series (posted about a week ago) and the series continues with a look at Astros outfielder Michael Bourn versus Rockies outfielder Willy Taveras.

MICHAEL BOURN (Astros) versus WILLY TAVERAS (Rockies)

Bourn’s 2007 stats

119 at bats, .277 average, 29 runs, one HR, six RBI, and 18 stolen bases

Taveras’ 2007 stats

372 at bats, .320 average, 64 runs, two HR, 24 RBI, and 33 stolen bases

It’s pretty clear that this battle between the fleet of foot isn’t about their home run totals. Both Bourn and Taveras are penciled into the starting centerfielder role and leadoff hitter for their respective teams heading as Spring Training gets rolling. Given the dimension they provide to their teams at the top of the lineup, that isn’t likely to change before Opening Day.

While with the Phillies last season, Bourn’s playing time was limited due to a crowded outfield and an ankle injury that caused him to miss over a month. When the season was complete, he had enjoyed some success in a reserve/pinch runner role, swiping 18 bags in 19 attempts. Interestingly enough, the Astros dealt closer Brad Lidge in a package deal to acquire the hometown boy, Bourn, at least in part to try to make fans finally forget about Taveras, a former Astro who was traded to Colorado in December of 2006 after becoming a fan favorite in his three seasons in Houston. The fact the team was willing to deal a player of Lidge’s caliber speaks volumes about the role they feel Bourn will have with the team this coming season.

Taveras displayed signs of taking his game to another level last season before myriad leg injuries limited him to just 97 games. He missed some time in previous seasons due to injury, but it was nothing remotely close to the severity of the quad injury that kept him sidelined in ‘07. His game clearly responded to the move to Coors as he set a career high in batting average and OPS, albeit in less than a full season of at bats. If he can stay healthy in Colorado for an entire season, there is little doubt he could be one of the best leadoff men in the National League.

Making a decision on which player to favor in this battle will be tough for fantasy owners. There games are so similar and they both are more appealing to me this season than another speedster like Juan Pierre, who could be pressured for his starting job by Andre Ethier this spring. Both lineups are quite strong, which should mean a nearly identical run total for the two outfielders. What it comes down to for me in the end is Taveras may have more potential, but he also seems more injury prone at this stage in his career. At this point I FAVOR TAVERAS IN THIS SHOWDOWN, but his edge over Bourn is thinner than the line to see the new dispensable Rambo movie.

Let’s finish what we started with a look at some of the stats I use when analyzing hitters.

ON BASE PERCENTAGE + SLUGGING PERCENTAGE (OPS): The on base percentage does a better job of telling us how a player is doing at the plate than batting average. It does this by drawing in walks and measuring a batters ability to get on base. Slugging percentage is the other half of the equation and measures a batters ability to advance baserunners. By measuring the OBP and SLG we can forecast a players ability to pile up RBI and hit for a decent average.

HIT RATE (H%): A player’s hit rate represents the number of balls hit into the field of play that fall in for base hits. In common terms it’s essentially the luck factor. Players establish a career rate and while their luck varies from season to season, but their rate typically doesn’t fluctuate wildly. You can look at the H% of players who had down seasons and determine if luck, or lack thereof, played a role in their numbers and could revert to the mean.

CONTACT RATE (Ct%): A player’s contact rate can tell you alot about their potential to hit for a solid batting average. To calculate Ct%, you subtract strikeouts from at bats and divide that number by the number of at bats. The Ct% foretells a fluctuation in batting average because any time a batter puts the ball in play they have a chance to get a hit and thus, bump up their average.

STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO (K:BB Ratio, Eye): The K:BB ratio or Batting Eye as some people call it, tells the story of how patient a hitter is at the plate. The closer a batter’s walk total is to their strikeout total, the better discipline they are displaying at the plate. If a walk total is particularly high, we can also assume that he’s only swinging at good pitches and if pitchers respond to that and are forced to pitch to him, a greater number of hits could follow. It’s best to look for hitters with a K:BB ratio of at least 3.5 and those with a 4.0 mark or better are the cream of the crop.

STOLEN BASES: Baseball HQ created a measurement called Speed Index that takes a players speed, divides it by the average speed of all major league hitters, and multiplies it by 100. It’s a strong measurement to get an idea of the natural speed a player possesses. Otherwise, it’s tough to project how many steals a player may pile up in the upcoming season. You can look at managerial tendencies, but you must remember that studies suggest you need to steal three bases to offset the impact of every time a player was caught stealing. Since it is difficult to project and therefore draft for speed, stolen bases often become disproportionately valuable and that can been seen in some of the projections certain people in the industry are putting together.

Those are just a couple ideas on how to evaluate hitters as you prepare for your upcoming draft. I don’t always use all of these, or all of the pitching stats either, but with experience I have learned how to use all of them to help me continue to be a competitive manager of my fantasy baseball teams.