Sleeper Showdown: Yunel Escobar vs. Stephen Drew

Since it seems highly unlikely that the same crew of contributors won’t send their favorite bust this week (they’re prepping for baseball drafts), it seemed logical for me to write up what is likely my last Sleeper Showdown of the spring given the close proximity to Opening Day of the non-Japanese variety. If you saw last week’s reader’s sleepers, you recognize the fact that shortstop/second baseman/third baseman Yunel Escobar is becoming something of a popular sleeper. ESPN currently has Escobar and the Diamondbacks’ Stephen Drew ranked 18 and 17 respectively among shortstops, confirming the fact that these two players are both sleepers, and expectations for the pair are very similar.

SS Yunel Escobar, Braves (2007)

Year	G	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	94	319	.326	54	5	28	5	.385	.451	.837

SS Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks (2007)

Year	G	AB	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	150	543	.238	60	12	60	9	.313	.370	.683

Drew obviously has the edge in terms of family pedigree, right down to the inability to stay healthy–2007 was the first year he was able to play at least 150 games. He was downright awful in the first half of last season, hitting just four bombs while striking out 57 times in 306 at bats. Despite those struggles, he’s just 25 and it’s worth noting that his underlying skills rebounded nicely in the second half, particularly spikes in his fly ball rate, walk rate, and batting eye.

Escobar emerged last season and made enough of an impact to convince the Braves to deal Edgar Renteria in the offseason. While Renteria is gone, as is promising SS prospect Elvis Andrus, the Braves have a talented young shortstop prospect in Brent Lillibridge, who has performed well this spring and is poised enough to challenge Escobar for playing time. Reasons why that might not happen is the fact Escobar hit .336 with four homers, 17 doubles, and 39 runs scored after the All-Star break. Despite a slide in his contact rate, his fly ball rate, walk rate, and batting eye all improved after the break. What this all amounts too is a highly unlikely probability that he maintains an average above .290 ever again, but some tempting power potential that could suggest a 20-25 homer season is in his future.

This showdown is a tough one to gauge since both hitters are just 25 years old and have a few kinks in their game to iron out. At this point, the only category Escobar significantly distanced himself from Drew in was batting average and the numbers suggest that may not be a trend in coming years. Since I owned Escobar last season I think my heart really wants to choose him to win this battle, but the reality of the situation is he’s edged out by Drew. That’s right, I FAVOR STEPHEN DREW IN THIS SHOWDOWN by a very narrow margin. The deciding factor for me is that only two National League ballparks are more friendly to left-handed hitters, particularly when it comes to hitting for power. It may seem like a small factor in this showdown, but it’s a very significant one in my mind.

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