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Sure Thing Scherzer?
Wednesday April 30th 2008, 6:15 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Max ScherzerThere is no bigger story today than the major league debut of Diamondbacks pitching prospect Max Scherzer last night.

Facing the Astros, Scherzer struck out seven in 4.1 perfect relief innings. The flame-throwing righty barely made it back to the locker room before fans called local sports radio shows to demand their very own Maximus be thrust into the starting rotation as soon as possible.

Ask and you shall receive.

Prior to Wednesday’s game, Manager Bob Melvin announced that the young phenom will start Monday’s game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. “He doesn’t have to be a five-pitch guy,” Melvin told the Arizona Republic. “He’s one of those few guys who can get by just on his fastball. But as a hitter, you can’t just sit on that. He has a real easy delivery, and that adds to the ball getting on you quicker than you expect, especially the first time you see him.”

There is no disputing his ability, as he ranked as the Diamondbacks fourth best prospect in Baseball America’s preseason top 10’s, and that is with outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and pitcher Brett Anderson ahead of him (both were dealt to Oakland shortly after the D-backs top 10 posted). His biggest asset is a sinking fastball that broke one bat on Tuesday and clearly overpowered every hitter he faced. Despite his manager’s assertion that all he needs is one pitch, it would seem necessary for him to develop his other pitches in order to remain in the rotation. He’s done just that, with Melvin admitting that his off-speed pitches had “more shape” to them yesterday.

Where there is some confusion is that Melvin insists he has an easy delivery, but a handful of minor league scouts that Baseball America talked to claim he has a violent head jerk at the end of his pitching motion that could cause problems. Then they refute that warning sign to a certain extent by mentioning his competitiveness, athleticism, and strong frame among his strengths. If you weigh all of this out I strongly believe Max is someone you should take an aggressive approach towards buying. That means for those owners in deep mixed leagues with plenty of your free-agent bidding dollars left should consider him one of the most sought assets you’ll see this season. It seems highly improbable that he’ll lose his rotation spot once given the opportunity and he could be a bigger difference maker than ANY player who started the season on top prospects lists.



Joe Bo Making Progress
Tuesday April 29th 2008, 9:44 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Joe BorowskiIndians reliever Joe Borowski, who is on the disabled list with a strained right triceps, showed he is making progress by playing catch Monday and Tuesday, extending it out to 75 feet.

“It’s feeling as normal as normal can be right now,” Borowski told MLB.com. “Hopefully, it just keeps progressing.”

Joe Bo was shut down by the Tribe after blowing two of his first four save opportunities and he’s expected to miss another couple weeks as he tries to keep building up the strength in his arm. The most notable nugget from this news story is that manager Eric Wedge has already made it clear that current closer Rafael Betancourt will return to his setup role once Borowski is healthy enough to take back his role as stopper. I’m torn as to if I should suggest buying low on Joe Bo or selling high once he returns to the closer role. He doesn’t have the peripherals of Betancourt or Rafael Perez, but he seemingly has the trust of his manager despite a shaky WHIP and ERA. The best thing I can suggest right now is that fantasy owners who haven’t dabbled in the Indians bullpen should continue to take that approach. Those Betancourt owners should see if they can buy low on Joe Bo, but unfortunately it will be difficult for owners to pull off the reverse of that deal (buying on Betancourt).

Photo courtesy of USA Today



Hamstrung Hank
Monday April 28th 2008, 8:09 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Hank BlalockOne of the most popular sleepers in fantasy leagues this spring is now expected to miss three to four weeks after suffering a hamstring injury. Monday’s MRI exam on the right hamstring of Rangers third baseman Hank Blalock revealed a partial tear, sending him to the disabled list for the foreseeable future. He received an injection of anti-inflammatory medication but is expected to miss at least three to four weeks, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Ramon Vazquez started the two games Blalock has missed thus far and is expected to see the majority of at bats while Hammering Hank is on the shelf. The big problem the Rangers face with the shift of Vazquez into the starting lineup is that it leaves them thin on the bench, particularly in terms of infielder depth.

It seems to suggest that they could recall someone, but few minor league infielders are healthy and/or performing well enough to justify a promotion. One guy to keep an eye on is outfielder Nelson Cruz, whose .538 on-base percentage leads all of organized baseball. Fantasy owners would be wise to keep an eye on if Cruz is promoted and take a chance on him in deep mixed leagues in the event that does occur. Meanwhile those left with a significant hole in their lineup due to Blalock’s absence will have to dig for options. Vazquez is an average one, and it seems unlikely that players like Joe Crede or Evan Longoria are still available in leagues. It’s possible that Scott Rolen was dropped in your league and he’d certainly be a viable waiver claim given the alternative.



Calm Before the Storm for Delmon?
Sunday April 27th 2008, 8:05 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

A quick glance at the last week, you don’t see any overwhelming signs that the breakout everyone expects out of Twins outfielder Delmon Young is coming anytime soon. That’s when you need to look deeper into said numbers.

Manager Ron Gardenhire moved Young down in the lineup for the current series against the Texas Rangers, and it has produced better results. “Delmon had great at-bats tonight,” Gardenhire told MLB.com regarding Saturday’s game. “I think you saw a big difference in him. Tonight he laid off a lot of tough pitches and got in good hitting counts and then ends up driving in runs.” This came just one day after an 0-for-5 disaster that left Gardy questioning Young’s decision making in the field and free-swinging ways at the plate.

Patience is the only attribute that has been in question when it comes to Young’s skill set.

OF Delmon Young, Twins (Last Three Years)

Year G AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS BB% CT% H% BB/K SB%
2005 136 .318 93 26 98 32 .360 .533 .893 5 82 34 0.31 30
2006 116 .316 66 11 69 24 .339 .375 .814 3 81 37 0.18 26
2007 162 .288 65 13 93 10 .316 .408 .723 4 80 34 0.20 8
2008 24 .258 11 0 8 4 .289 .312 .601 4 83 31 0.25 21

If you look at his walk rate (BB%) you’ll see it’s consistently in the 4 range, which is significantly lower than the five-year league average of 9. There is no questioning Young’s skill set and tantalizing ceiling, but until he polishes up his approach at the plate, that superstar label will remain slightly out of reach. Given the fact he’s starting to take some baby steps, now may be the time to buy low on him.



The Link Parade
Thursday April 24th 2008, 8:57 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

It’s been awhile since I’ve done this, but I wanted to get you some stories to devour before I head out of town for the weekend. I probably won’t be able to post until Sunday, but I’ll do what I can.

I’m giddy over the fact one of the prospects I invested in this season (Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson) had a productive major league debut.

Former closer Mike Gonzalez had a productive debut following reconstructive elbow surgery. Fantasy owners need to monitor his progress as well as the progress made by Rafael Soriano–this year’s elbow challenged closer.

Twins speedy outfielder Carlos Gomez turned heads early in the season, but his recent slump dealt him a day off on Thursday.

Is it time to put up your Dukes?

Astros outfielder Michael Bourn is in no rush to return from a groin injury, and third baseman Ty Wigginton could start rehab next week.

Brian Fuentes closed out his first save since taking the closing duties back in Colorado.

Athletics start Rich Harden tossed a bullpen session today, but I’m still skeptical.



A Position Eligibility Travesty
Wednesday April 23rd 2008, 1:49 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Pujols 3I’m still waiting to hear whether or not Albert Pujols will be in the lineup at first base or second base tonight against the Pirates. Why must I even ask the question? Because of some shenanigans last night in a 12-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

After second baseman Cesar Izturis was injured when an Eric Gagne pitch hit him in the arm and caused him to be unable to play second base when the game went into extra innings. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa met Pujols and third-base coach Jose Oquendo after the half-inning in which Izturis sustained the injury and explained the need to shift Pujols over to second base with the understanding that he wouldn’t attempt to convert double plays or make any fancy defensive plays. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, La Russa entertained putting Schumaker at second base but instead went to Pujols, who at first lobbied to play shortstop, his position at Maple Woods Community College.

So I realize that La Russa didn’t consider how this move would affect fantasy leagues and it’s laughable to suggest that he should have, but that doesn’t negate the fact that league commissioners need to react to the development in an appropriate manner.

I’m not going to suggest that every league needs to be run the way I would run a league, but it’s games like the Cards/Brew Crew contest yesterday that should cause you to evaluate your league’s position eligibility requirements. It’s safe to say that the majority of leagues require a player appeared at 20 games at a position last season to be eligible at that position this season. Typically a similar number is required to gain eligibility during the current season. There are however those leagues that award eligibility based on a single game which means Pujols will be appearing at second base for the next five-plus months.

I think I just lost my lunch.

You would’ve thought we would’ve learned back when outfielder Jermaine Dye played a single game at shortstop during the 2005 season, but the desire to differentiate your league can sometimes lead to overlooking logic. If nothing else, consider this post my attempt to stand on my soapbox and plead with commissioners everywhere to talk through and consider the effects of even the smallest rule in your league constitution, because no one wants to be beaten by Albert Pujols the second baseman.

EDITORS NOTE: I’m still just as worried about Pujols’ elbow injury as I was this spring and at some point this season, his fantasy owners will have a difficult decision to make regarding if they want to continue to gamble on his health or sell high.

Photo Courtesy of Fox Sports



Project Prospect’s Top 25 Prospects
Tuesday April 22nd 2008, 5:28 pm
Filed under: Minors, Strategy

Jay BruceI am thoroughly enjoying Project Prospect’s coverage of all things Minor Leagues and they put up their Top 25 Prospects today. I’m working on a Market article for Mock Draft Central due tomorrow and will post that here when it’s complete and submitted. Until then, enjoy Project Prospect and while you are looking at it, consider whether or not you’d like me to incorporate more minor league information into the108stitches.com, including similar top 25 lists and updates on how those talented youngsters you may have invested in are faring down on the farm.

Photo Courtesy of Rotobuzz.com



Polanco Presents Buy Low Opportunity
Tuesday April 22nd 2008, 5:55 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

PolancoIn the early going this season, Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco has seen his numbers fall to a paltry level they have rarely reached before. A back injury has been much to blame for his mediocre results, but he may have received some good news regarding that malady on Monday.

Polanco underwent an MRI on his back over the weekend and results came back on Sunday that revealed no structural damage and led to him being considered day-to-day.

“He might be able to play tomorrow if he’s all right,” manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com on Monday, following the Tigers’ 5-1 win over the Blue Jays. “They said [the medication] could work right away and make him feel good. There was some inflammation there. That’s what they found out. But no dysfunctional stuff, no muscular problems, no nerve problems. So that’s really good news.”

Buying low on injured players can be a tricky task to accomplish, not to mention one that carries significant risk for fantasy owners. That said, the evidence is there to suggest that Polanco is a risk worth taking. Beyond the obvious fact that he hits in a lineup that will produce runs consistently over the course of the season, he has hit .295 or higher in each of the last four seasons, including over .315 in two of the last three years. He’s obviously not going to outproduce top second baseman like Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, or Aaron Hill, but if you need upside in the batting average and runs categories, now may be your buy low opportunity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today



Updated Player Rankings - April
Sunday April 20th 2008, 8:07 pm
Filed under: Strategy, Uncategorized

The time has come for an update to the player rankings. My goal is to provide an update once a month that takes into consideration the latest happenings and weighs them against the projected end of the season performance.

NOTES FROM THE UPDATE:

FIRST BASE:
It pains me to return Albert Pujols to his rightful spot atop the first base rankings because it means I have to eat a large plate full of crow. He still has an elbow injury, but because he’s raking at the plate and his elbow hasn’t blown out, all is peachy. I still am skeptical and think it’s entirely possible that he plummets from his perch by midseason. The group we should keep the closest eye on is from James Loney down to Ryan Garko, because while many of these players have already had strong starts to their seasons, any of them are capable of a hot stretch at the plate at any moment.

SECOND BASE:
I would totally love to get Howie Kendrick closer to the top of these rankings and his start to the season would’ve justified it if not for his recent rash of injuries. Aaron Hill is the real deal and while my Bold Predictions post here predicted he would lead all second basemen in homers and while his power hasn’t materialized to that extent yet, only two starting second basemen have a better average through 16 games.

SHORTSTOP:
Last year it was Jimmy Rollins who enjoyed a breakout season and while the season is certainly still young, I believe this year it’s Raffy Furcal.

THIRD BASE:
Despite the quadriceps injury, I can’t justify moving A-Rod down. I fully expect Evan Longoria to climb these rankings more by the end of the season and I’m giddy over the fact I have him secured for many more years in one of my keeper leagues for a much cheaper price than the Rays had to pay. I omitted Mark Reynolds from my preseason rankings…Ooops! Joe Crede made the preseason cheatsheet, but he may have climbed the rankings farther than any other batter in these rankings.

OUTFIELD:
Still think B.J. Upton isn’t capable of a repeat performance? Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has an early beat on the Comeback Player of the Year award, trailing only Angels hurler Ervin Santana in that department. Every draft I’m in I see Jermaine Dye slide and not get the credit he deserves. What’s not to like about his .344 average, 12 runs, and eight RBI? B.J better watch his back, because his brother is raking at a rate he could only dream about when he was 20 years old.

DESIGNATED HITTERS:
Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas has to fall in the rankings until we figure out who he signs with.

STARTING PITCHERS:
Call it a leap of faith keeping Scott Kazmir at the 8 spot in the rankings. I thought I ranked Johnny Cueto high enough, but he has simply exceeded EVERYONE but his own expectations. I may have moved Ervin Santana up too high, but after his impressive eight innings of three-hit, zero walk, eight K ball against the Mariners, it’s tough not to do so. On the flipside, it’s tough not to slide C.C. S-sucky-A down to 40 among starters. It’s a tough call, but I firmly believe he could be hiding an injury or at least feeling the effects of excessive innings over the last couple seasons. How long will the Yankees deal with subpar performances from Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy before they push Joba Chamberlain into the rotation? Drum roll please….the two starting pitchers I’d rather leave off the list entirely, but struggle to rank are Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. May they stay far, fary away from all of my fantasy rosters. Some very interesting young pitchers I’m closely monitoring the performance of these days are: Scott Olsen-Mariners, Jonathan Sanchez-Giants, Dana Eveland-Athletics, and Nick Blackburn-Twins.

RELIEF PITCHERS:
I’m still hoping Kerry Wood and Brandon Lyon lose their closer jobs, hence the presence of Carlos Marmol and the ever so slight miss of Tony Pena in the rankings. I think Manny Acosta should be owned in EVERY league by now because Rafael Soriano continues to experience soreness in his elbow and has dating back to spring training. It seems like the kind of malady that will effect him all season, which could mean plenty of save opportunities for Acosta.



On the Rise
Tuesday April 22nd 2008, 5:54 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Cliff LeeGetting in on a player’s hot streak can make a big difference on where you find yourself in your league standings. The following players have heated up recently and may have justified a spot on your roster (assuming they’re free agents in your league), and quite possibly your lineup.

Clint Barmes, SS/2b, Rockies
In Spring Training the battle for the starting second base job was between Jayson Nix, Jeff Baker, and possibly Ian Stewart. There was no mention of former star shortstop Clint Barmes, who was seemingly left for dead by most fantasy owners and a handful of people within the Rockies organization. Barmes’ recent performance has turned that battle upside down and put him in a position to be the starter–something he’s been in three straight games this week. Over the last seven days, he’s gone 12-for-27 with one homer, three runs, eight RBI, and one stolen base further staking his claim on regular at bats in the Rockies lineup. That should be enough to earn him a spot on fantasy rosters even in deep mixed leagues.

Chris Duncan, OF, Cardinals
As I alluded to in my Ryan Ludwick post, the Cardinals weren’t supposed to be very good this season, but through 17 games they are tied for the league lead with 12 victories. After going just three for his first 16 this season, Chris Duncan has been absolutely raking since, to the tune of nine for his last 20 during which he’s clubbed two homers, scored six runs, and driven in five runs. Unlike Ludwick and Skip Schumaker, he’s not in a battle for at bats and while he used to be benched against lefties, that may happen far less frequently if he continues to beat the cover off the ball. He’s hitting just ahead of Albert Pujols in many games and that is just another reason to expect the best from him, and to find space for him on your fantasy roster.

Cliff Lee, SP, Indians
Indians hurler Cliff Lee is probably owned in all leagues by now, but there have to be many questions regarding whether or not he can sustain his early season success. Last year’s abdominal strain along with his rising flyball rate were the main reasons why his overall numbers have slid significantly since his breakout 18-win season back in 2005. He’s never going to rival teammate Fausto Carmona in terms of groundball rate, but he’s made significant improvement in that department and pitched remarkably better through three starts–posting a 3-0 record, 0.40 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, and 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 22.2 innings. His numbers are clearly on the rise with the only word of caution being that his starts have come against the Athletics (twice) and Twins, so he will still face far stiffer tests in terms of offenses. That’s not meant to discount the obvious progress he has made, just meant to warn you before you sell the farm to acquire one of the young season’s best pitching stories so far.

PHOTO COURTESY OF: Indians Confidential