Ludwick Emerging
The Cardinals were supposed to be one of the league’s worst teams, but through the first 16 games, they are tied for the league lead with 11 wins. While outfielder Ryan Ludwick began the year fourth on the outfield depth chart, he’s starting to turn heads. For baseball fans and fantasy owners who have overlooked Ludwick to this point, it will be much harder to do so following his 4-for-5 effort against the Brewers on Thursday.
Ludwick has struggled to earn his share of at bats, but it’s not because he lacks ability. He’s always been more of a fly ball hitter and that was a main reason he exploded for 29 homers in 2006 at Triple-A Toledo. His contact rate has shown modest improvement over the last couple season and that is why he’s connected on 16 hits in his first 41 at bats this season.
No matter how much potential he seemingly has, he won’t beat out Chris Duncan or Rick Ankiel as long as both players are healthy. His main competition for at bats is Skip Schumaker, who has gone 15-for-33 after starting the season 0-for-16. On the surface, Skippy appears to be a very reasonable threat to Ludwick for playing time, but he’s a ground ball hitter and the contact rate and batting eye aren’t enough reason to convince me he possesses enough batting average upside.
The bottom line is which player offers a skill that can benefit fantasy owners. Both Schumaker and Ludwick are close in their ability to hit for average and Skip’s role as a leadoff hitter suggests he probably has the edge in terms of scoring runs. That said, Ludwick has significantly more power potential and given the fact the difference between him and Skippy isn’t significant in the other categories, he seems to be the guy who could earn more at bats in this platoon situation. It’s probably too early for owners to claim him in mixed leagues, but he’s someone who should definitely be on their radar.
Top 25 Under 25
After navigating my way from blogroll to blogroll, I stumbled across a website that frankly everyone in deeper fantasy leagues, particularly keeper leagues, need to be visiting regularly. It’s called Project Prospect.com. One of the most interesting features they do regularly is a Top 25 Under 25 list. It’s pretty tough to disagree with their top 10, but there are some other interesting things to note…particularly Cardinals outfield prospect Colby Rasmus, who’s talent and upside is unquestioned, but I think there are hitters behind him on the list I would rather have locked up long term. Either way, this is a site that fantasy owners who value a strong statistical based analysis should bookmark and visit regularly.
Calf-strated Cubbie
Going into the season we were well aware of the fact that Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano wasn’t 100 percent following a significant quad injury late last season. It seemed only a matter of time until another leg injury put him on the shelf and Tuesday brought that injury, when he was forced to leave the game with a strained right calf muscle.
Soriano approached a fly ball hit by Ken Griffey Jr and with his typical hop approach to making the catch, landed awkwardly and immediately began limping in pain.
“He’ll probably be a while,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella told the Chicago Sun-Times. “It will be a while.”
Soriano was unable to put any weight on the leg and had to be helped off the field, which suggests a DL stint is a near certainly despite the fact the team won’t know the results of his MRI until sometime on Wednesday.
There are really two things I take from this development: (1) I’m about zero percent confident that Soriano will be healthy enough to be anything more than a shell of his former self this season, and (2) Enter Matt Murton.
Soriano was already not running as much this season, with two steals through Tuesday’s game and it’s going to be at least a few weeks before he’s back in the lineup and even when he returns you have to question whether or not he’ll be able to push off the right leg to get the necessary power to rake at the plate.
As for Murton, he’s hit .333 through his first 30 at bats at Triple-A Iowa and even if the Cubs remain reluctant to play him in a regular role, Soriano’s injury could give them the opportunity to showcase M&M in order to deal him later this season. Considering Murton could be a productive regular on many other teams in the league, this potential development should be of interest to fantasy owners. Keep your eyes on the newswire on Wednesday to see whether or not Fonz heads to the DL (I’d be stunned if he didn’t) and who the Cubs call up to take his place on the roster.
NOTE: Soriano was placed on the DL today and second baseman/outfielder Eric Patterson, not Murton, was recalled. It appears that Lou Piniella simply doesn’t agree with the front office’s assessment of Murton’s skills, making it that much more important that the Cubs’ red-headed stepchild of sorts find his way out of a dead end situation in the Windy City.
The Best of Minor League Promotions
Tuesday April 15th 2008, 7:01 pm
Filed under:
Minors
So I realize this post probably won’t offer much in the way of fantasy baseball advice, but it’s nice to take the edge off every once in a while and enjoy some of Minor League Baseball’s best promotions so far this season. Here are the top two the minors have seen so far this season.
OFFICE SPACE NIGHT (WILMINGTON BLUE ROCKS)
The Royals Single-A affiliate offered a night dedicated to the appreciation of one of the greatest movies in history, Office Space. Just three bucks buys you a chance to swing away at a copier and five singles gets you a pair of swings. Damn, it feels good to be a gangsta.
LADIES OF THE PRO PILLOW FIGHTING LEAGUE (FORT MYERS MIRACLE)
There may not be the gaudy contracts or performing enhancing drugs, but there is more than enough polyester fiberfill to go around at this promotional event. The main event on the card will be top-rated contender Laina Beaton along with Eiffel Power and Carmen Monoxide. No word on if it’s a no feathers barred match, but it’s sure to be a crowd pleaser. Word is that this is simply an opener to an upcoming May promotion when Florida strongman Mighty Gonzalez (I will now answer only to Mighty Mr. Bracks) will attempt to lift a full keg 900 times in three hours. Nothing like having refreshment in your hands to take a sip while exerting yourself.
Putz Progressing
For fantasy owners who invested an early round pick or significant auction bucks in Mariners closer J.J. Putz, the wait for his return from a rib injury may soon be coming to a close. Putz threw off a mound on Sunday for the first time since going on the DL on April 2nd and reported no problems.
“It felt good, really good throwing out there,” Putz told the Seattle Times regarding the six-minute session at what he termed 80 to 85 percent effort. “We’ll see how it feels tomorrow. That’s the biggest thing.”
While Putz is eligible to come of the DL on Thursday it seems as though it could be another week before he’s activated, particularly if he’s really just at 80 percent effort. When healthy, he’s clearly one of the best closers in the league, but it seems like it could be the end of the month before he’s 100 percent healthy. While the rib injury isn’t that major, you have to imagine how it gets tweaked every time he twists his torso to throw a pitch. That makes it easy to see how recovery is a slow and painstaking. At this point fantasy owners who are feeling particularly lucky should continue to temporarily employ Mark Lowe, who appears to be the guy in a bullpen full of average arms like his own.
Reyes Hamstrung
It’s been a couple years since Mets shortstop Jose Reyes had to deal with significant hamstring issues, but it appears as though his diligent approach to keeping his legs healthy hit a bit of a snag. Perhaps the research done at Baseball HQ that states once a player displays a skill they own it extends to hamstring injuries?
The results of an MRI on Reyes’ left hamstring revealed what it being a called a “mild hamstring strain,” causing reason for some optimism from Mets manager Willie Randolph. “I think it’s just a mild strain, so that’s good,” Randolph told MLB.com. “Hopefully we’ll just let it calm down a little bit, too, and get him going. It would have been a little different if he pulled up or had a grab. But he said he’s been a little sore for a while.”
Reyes was not in the lineup today (Saturday), replaced by veteran Damian Easley, who is expected to be his temporary replacement for as long as he is sidelined. The Mets are optimistic that their young superstar shortstop will return within the next week, but few expect him to play on Sunday, and with an off day on Monday, deciding whether or not he should be in fantasy lineups this coming week will be something of a challenge for fantasy owners. We need to remember that Reyes missed more than two months because of a hamstring injury back in 2004, albeit a strain that was much more severe than reports seem to indicate this current malady is.
Reyes confirmed for MLB.com that he still feels the tightness in the hamstring since they day he injured it and very little pain has subsided. He also drew upon his experience with similar injuries and made it clear he won’t return to the lineup until he feels 100 percent.
“That’s dangerous,” Reyes said. “You don’t want to play in the game when you feel it a little bit, because that’s when you pull it. I don’t want to be out for two months, one month. It’s still so early.”
It’s extremely difficult for fantasy owners to swallow the thought of benching one of their top players. While I don’t have stats to support my argument, I can draw upon my 15 years of playing fantasy baseball and tell you that I estimate of the handful of players I’ve owned that were considered day-to-day heading into an upcoming week, but with little to no progress made with their injury, probably less than 15 percent of them actually piled up significant at bats in that week that followed. It’s worth noting that Reyes believes he can return on Tuesday. Color me skeptical. I have found that in circumstances like those that face Reyes and his fantasy owners this week, it’s best to bench him and worst case scenario is you miss out on a very small piece of a much larger pie that is his season of at bats.
The Time Has Come
Friday April 11th 2008, 7:51 pm
Filed under:
Majors
We’re only two weeks into the season and yet there are many debates in the industry focused on pinpointing which fantasy owners in certain league formats can afford to wait for the arrival of Rays uber third base prospect Evan Longoria.
That debate, as well as the wait, appears over.
The Tampa Tribune reports that Longoria wasn’t in the lineup tonight at Triple-A Durham and the local radio broadcast there reported he is on his way to the majors. Both manager Joe Maddon and executive vice president Andrew Friedman admitted that their top ranked prospect could be an option if current third baseman Willy Aybar heads to the disabled list with a hamstring injury. It appears as though the results of Aybar’s MRI exam could be the deciding factor in the decision and given the fact Longoria didn’t appear in the Durham Bulls lineup on Friday night, Maddon and Friedman may already know something we don’t.
Many fantasy analysts have discussed how we are spoiled when it comes to to prospects and expectations, particularly after the monstrous numbers Brewers phenom Ryan Braun put up after his promotion last season. What should fantasy owners expect from Longoria? On the positive side of things, I don’t believe the Rays will mess with his confidence. What I mean by that is it seems highly unlikely that they plug him into their lineup and then pull him and send him back to Durham once Aybar proves healthy. Aybar isn’t as bad of a player as some people would like to believe, but you obviously can’t mess around with a player who could very well be the face of your franchise in coming years. If I had to offer my projections I would say .270 average, 12 homers, 55 RBI on the conservative end and .290, 25 homers, 75 RBI on the high end. That should be enough to make him an option at third base in AL-only leagues and 12-team mixed leagues. In keeper leagues it’s time to get your hands on him and build around a player who could easily mature into one of your franchise’s cornerstones.
EDITORS NOTE: I can only imagine that former Rays closer Al Reyes was celebrating Longoria’s pending arrival when he was tasered and arrested by Tampa police early Friday morning.
National Treasure?
When an MRI revealed a significant tear in the left oblique muscle of Nationals outfielder Wily Mo Pena in mid-March, it put the season of a player many people saw as a sleeper on a bit of a detour. The good news is that we may have come to the end of that detour.
According to the Washington Post report, are expediting Pena’s return from the injury, and his 3-for-3 effort in a rehab game at Triple-A seems to suggest that rushing him won’t be particularly detrimental. “I’m hoping at least by next weekend he’s playing [for the Nationals], maybe earlier,” general manager Jim Bowden told the Post on Thursday.
This makes it an appropriate time for fantasy owners to react.
Pena has always had an issue with racking up the strikeouts like American Airlines racks up canceled flights. That said, he’s just 26-years old so he still has time to put together a breakout and the time is right considering the existing research that suggests that many players enjoy breakouts around the age of 27. Another interesting note is the fact that his contact rate improved significantly with the move to Washington last year, going from 63% as a part-timer in Boston to 73% as a Nationals starter. On top of that, consider Austin Kearns is hitting just .233 and Elijah Dukes is also on the disabled list and everything seems to point to a significant opportunity in front of Pena.
For fantasy owners who already have significant sources of batting average on their roster to offset the potential mediocre average Pena is synonymous with, the potential power numbers could be well worth said owners finding a spot on their roster for him. His injury should’ve made him available in almost all league formats, but that should change soon, as he should become one of the more popular free agent claims over the next week.
Braving the Bullpen
Fantasy owners are getting a reminder this season that it doesn’t pay to spend a high pick or significant auction bucks on closers as it seems like we continue to lose another to injury on a daily basis. J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez are hurt, and Brandon Lyon and Eric Gagne are pitching like they might as well be. Joining them on Wednesday is Braves closer Rafael Soriano, who was placed on the 15-day disabled list with elbow tendinitis.
Soriano has not been the picture of health throughout his career, undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2004 and dealing with inflammation in his right elbow this spring (similar to the issue that is forcing him to the DL now). In his four appearances this season, Soriano has a 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and five strikeouts in four innings. He converted his only save opportunity despite giving up a run in the ninth inning of Sunday’s 3-1 win.
“I’m not taking any chances,” manager Bobby Cox told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on Monday following the game in which rookie Manny Acosta from served as closer for a night. Cox suggested that his flamethrowing Dominican closer was feeling significant soreness and while he didn’t allude to a DL trip, his extreme caution seemed to suggest the Braves would be faced with such a decision.
Now you’ll have fantasy owners assuming that since Acosta was the guy that the Braves went with on Monday, he’ll be the guy. Not so fast. Moylan was tied for the lead in regards to most relief appearances and Cox hasn’t been real coy about his love of the veteran and he is actually the potential saves source that could emerge from this development.
Lyon is a Lamb
To this day it’s absolutely mind numbing that one of the first things Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin did when 2007 Major-League saves leader Jose Valverde was dealt this past offseason, was to name Brandon Lyon the closer. The announcement was made in a way that suggested Lyon could commit treason, or admit to being a closet fan of the brief-lived ABC show “Are You Hot,” before the Diamondbacks would pull him from the closer role. Well, one thing that certainly isn’t hot is Lyon’s sketchy performance so far this season, as seen by the six hits (including two homers), four earned runs, and two blown saves over his first three innings of work.
Despite his struggles, management continued praising Lyon on Tuesday. “We have confidence in him,” Melvin told the Arizona Republic. “A couple of outings isn’t going to take away from the fact that this is a guy we expect to pitch the ninth inning for us. That’s the way it remains right now.” Even general manager Josh Byrnes got in on the action, adding that in “The first week, good or bad, the results get magnified. “He’s already had success in the ninth in his career and I’m sure he’ll pitch his way through it.”
I have a problem being anything but skeptical when it comes to Lyon. He did pick up a win over that stretch, but it’s becoming abundantly clear that time is running out to get your hands on Tony Pena at a discounted rate. I like extreme groundball pitcher Chad Qualls much more than either Lyon or Pena, but it’s highly unlikely that D-backs management wouldn’t give Pena a shot first once they realize Lyon isn’t the answer (Qualls only got a save last weekend because Lyon had already pitched). If you subscribe to the theory to get saves in the most cost efficient way possible, the window is closing on your opportunity to plug Pena onto your roster.