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In the market we scour over the stats and determine which players fantasy owners should consider buying low and selling high along with our favorite free agent those owners should consider adding to their roster. Decisions like these can be the difference in a winning and losing fantasy squad, so without further adieu, here are your candidates for this week’s column.
BUY LOW: OF Elijah Dukes, Nationals
Those who read my columns regularly might remember that I was singing the praises of Dukes in the spring. That hasn’t exactly gone according to plan, but it’s tough to blame the young Nationals outfielder, who accrued just two at bats before being sidelined by a hamstring injury for the last 30-plus games. The only thing that stood between him and a breakout season was behaving like a mature adult, something that has eluded him his entire career. Injuries hadn’t been a significant issue in the past and there is no reason to believe that has changed because of one hamstring injury.
If you think Dukes will be hard pressed to crack the lineup when he returns to the lineup, consider the numbers of the current healthy Nationals outfielders…
Lastings Milledge: 118 ABs, 15 runs, one homers, 11 RBI, three SB, .263 BA
Wily Mo Pena: 61 ABs, four runs, zero homers, four RBI, zero SB, .230 BA
Austin Kearns: 113 ABs, 12 runs, two homers, 13 RBI, one SB, .212 BA
Willie Harris: 39 ABs, 10 runs, zero homers, three RBI, zero SB, .205 BA
Rob Mackowiak: 24 ABs, two runs, zero homers, zero RBI, zero SB, .167 BA
Are you going to argue that there is something in that group above that suggests to you that Nationals management will be unable to find at bats for a promising bat such as Dukes? Heading into the season, Dukes’ status as a sleeper went from intriguing to over hyped and it’s remarkable just how far he’s fallen back in the eyes of some fantasy owners given his injury. If you can convince one of those owners to give you Dukes for 60 cents on the dollar, it’s time to buy, buy, buy.
SELL HIGH: 3B Joe Crede, White Sox
Everyone—including the White Sox—wrote off Crede to a certain extent this past offseason. It wasn’t hard to find a reason to join them, considering he had opted for rest over surgery for multiple back injuries and the nagging injury sapped his numbers, limiting him to 167 at bats and just four homers in 2007—nearly half of his current 2008 total. A major reason why he’s enjoyed resurgence this season is that he finally underwent surgery this past offseason, which was a more complete solution for a back injury that never seemed to be addressed, and subsequently took such a big bite out of his production.
So why would you want to want to sell a healthy proven power source? First, you have to get past the fact that he has hit just .260 over the last three seasons, including .216 in 2007 and .248 so far this season. If you figure you can combat his mediocre batting average, consider the fact he’s hit more than 25 homers in a season just once in seven professional seasons. Suddenly you have to consider if he’s truly the power source you thought he was through the first month of the season. He’s certainly as healthy as he’s ever been during his professional career and that may mean he equals his career high of 30 homers set back in 2006, but at this point it seems highly likely that you can get more value out of trading him than you can keeping him on your roster.
CLAIM: SP Greg Smith, Athletics
The Athletics have so many talented young pitching prospects throughout their system that it was no surprise that very few analysts (including myself) had a wealth of knowledge about Smith when he was traded from the Diamondbacks this offseason in the Dan Haren trade. His stock has risen significantly since he made his debut against the Blue Jays back on April 9th and fantasy owners are starting to take notice.
After walking five in his aforementioned debut, he’s walked just eight over five starts (33 combined innings) since. His strikeouts have also spiked, highlighted by his 10 whiffs against the Rangers in a dominant performance last Sunday. “I don’t know; I was locating the ball well and not trying to do too much—maybe that’s why I got a bunch of strikeouts,” Smith told the Associated Press. “Looking back, I wish it were less strikeouts so I could have pitched deeper in the game. To come back and get the win is good enough for me.”
It’s important to have realistic expectations when it comes to young pitching—just look to Max Scherzer’s starting debut for evidence of why it pays to stay guarded before you label the next young arm with just a nibble of major league success (albeit jaw dropping in Scherzer’s major league debut case) a stud for the next five months of the season. Smith has made more starts than Max and while it’s unreasonable to expect him to keep his ERA under 3.00 and his WHIP flirting close to the 1.00 mark all season, he’s shown enough poise and skill that he should be owned in all league formats now and be reduced to no less than a spot starter until he shows he’s not worthy of such a significant role.
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