Thinking Through Trades

Recently I was talking with a former colleague at Fanball and he was asking my opinion of a trade he was going to make in a deep keeper league I used to be a part of it. This is a 5×5 rotisserie league in which rosters consist of 40 players and draw upon both the National and American League. Very few prospects go undrafted, and those prospects have to play a game in the major leagues before they are eligible to be kept for subsequent seasons.

In this league there are teams that set up shop to start their fire sales insanely early in the year. Yep, after one month of play they have already started, including a the first deal I would have vetoed if I still was in control of the league–Johan Santana (1) and Carlos Lee (2) for Matt Kemp (26), Dana Eveland (30), and Daric Barton (late 20s),  (2008 rounds in parenthesis are approximate).  This propensity for the fire sales to start ablaze early benefits my friend because he always drafts well, ending up with more young talent than he needs and thus is able to peddle some of it to fill holes as he chases another championship.

He came to me with an offer he received from another owner that had him giving up the Marlins Scott Olsen and Devil Rays pitching prospect Jake McGee and getting back Torii Hunter and Micah Owings in return. Olsen used to be a high-profile prospect, but he’s struggled both mentally and physically and hasn’t been able to stretch out his sporadic strings of success. He still has upside, and was pitching well before some arm soreness, but probably lacks an elite level ceiling at this point. McGee has dealt with some forearm soreness this season, but is every bit as promising as scouts claim. He had only a brief stint at Double-A in 2007, but it was impressive, as he struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings and didn’t seem overwhelmed by the promotion.

His success has continued this season with the most notable development being his cutting down on his walks slightly. Despite this success and the accolades he’s earned as a pitching prospect, we had to look at this trade offer constructively. The Rays already have Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, and probably Matt Garza firmly entrenched in their pitching rotation. Barring HUGE unforeseen collapses, none of them figure to lose their spots any time soon. Then there is Edwin Jackson, who has enjoyed a very productive first month of the season, but could be bumped from the rotation down the road when one of the Rays top pitching prospects is ready for the bigs.

The problem is, McGee has a couple arms ahead of him in that pecking order. It’s possible that he’s passing up fellow Biscuit (Double-A Montgomery’s team name) Wade Davis on that depth chart, but not a certainty. There is little chance he passes up 2007 first-round pick David Price, who despite a bump in the road in the form of left elbow soreness this spring, profiles to be a front-of-the-rotation type of starter.

My argument for my friend became, how does McGee squeak his way into that pitching rotation in the next 1-2 years? I don’t see it. The investment made in Garza suggests that the top three rotation spots are locked indefinitely (Kazmir-Shields-Garza) and I believe that the success Sonnanstine is enjoying is no fluke. McGee fits the profile of a reliever far more than Price does and you want to give up Hunter and Owings to acquire a reliever who may not be closing out games? Even if he does, it could be a couple years before the saves start rolling in.

So while my buddy didn’t commit a raping and pillaging akin to that Johan/Carlos Lee deal, he helped his team’s chances and didn’t have to deal his most elite prospects. Kudos.

Photo courtesy of The Bleacher Report

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