CBRACKE
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When Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano was still an up-and-coming prospect and Mark Prior was still in the rotation picture, I was in the first season of the favorite of my three fantasy keeper leagues. I was fortunate enough to get my hands on him late in my draft and keep him for a few years before a light bulb went off and I felt strongly that the time was right to trade him.
RHP, Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
| Year | G | IP | W-L | SV | ERA | WHIP | K | BAA | K/9 |
| 2002 | 32 | 108.1 | 4-8 | 0 | 3.66 | 1.45 | 93 | .235 | 7.7 |
| 2003 | 32 | 214 | 13-11 | 0 | 3.11 | 1.32 | 168 | .239 | 7.1 |
| 2004 | 31 | 209.2 | 16-8 | 0 | 2.75 | 1.22 | 188 | .225 | 8.1 |
| 2005 | 33 | 223.1 | 14-6 | 0 | 3.26 | 1.15 | 202 | .212 | 8.1 |
| 2006 | 33 | 214 | 16-7 | 0 | 3.41 | 1.29 | 210 | .208 | 8.8 |
| 2007 | 34 | 216.1 | 18-13 | 0 | 3.95 | 1.33 | 177 | .233 | 7.4 |
| 2008 | 16 | 106.1 | 8-3 | 0 | 3.13 | 1.33 | 68 | .259 | 5.8 |
If you look closer at the stats above, you can see why I was compelled to deal the Cubs ace. The most obvious reason was the average of just under 216 innings per season for the last five years. That combined with the fact he was facing between 27 and 28 batters per game through those seasons had me more than mildly concerned his arm would give out sooner than later.
I haven’t looked quite so shrewd in my assessment, as a couple years have past and still certain guys like Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia and Zambrano continue to buck the research done over at Baseball HQ that has done a very good job at forecasting risk in pitchers, specifically their likelihood for injury. While Carlos hasn’t missed many games during the last few years, his numbers have started to show the effects of being overworked. His K/9IP, control (bb*9/IP), ERA, and WHIP have all taken a turn for the worse, while his fly ball rate has risen–a sure sign that he’ll be serving up more homers over the next couple seasons.
The bottom line is that regardless of how serious the results of the MRI on his shoulder ends up being, I wanted nothing to do with him prior to the injury and I strongly believe his fantasy owners should sell him while they still can.
Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated.
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