Twins are THAT Fantasy Owner
You all know the owner in your fantasy league who wants to give you their trash for your stars? The major league baseball equivalent may be the Minnesota Twins.
For the second straight year, the trade deadline is close and a very competitive Twins team is highly unlikely to make an impact move. I’m willing to chalk part of this up to the old excuse that it’s too hard for small market clubs to make impact moves, but that is like saying it’s too hard for the scrawny 120 pound man to move the large boulders blocking their driveway so they might as well drive through them. The only difference is the Twins wouldn’t even do that. Instead they’d stare at the boulders and feel sorry for themselves.
The Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre makes a lot of sense for them, but they have balked at the asking price of Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins or Denard Span as part of a package for Adrian Beltre, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports. They have countered with a package that includes Boof Bonser and Craig Monroe.
That is as tantalizing as a turd sandwich.
What is the worst that could happen if you offer them Blackburn or Perkins along with Boof, and hell, if it takes throwing in Monroe, why not? You have one of the best 24-year old pitchers on your farm in Francisco Liriano (who coincidentally could be called up by the weekend according to the Star-Tribune) who you can plug right in to the vacated spot in the rotation.
Let this be a lesson to fantasy owners as they are making a move to be competitive during the stretch run…don’t follow the Twins blueprint.
Photo courtesy of TwinsTerritory.freeforums.com
Teixeira Fitted for Halo
It didn’t take long for the Braves to find a taker for first baseman Mark Teixeira just a mere day or two after formally announcing he was on the block. The Braves received first baseman Casey Kotchman and pitching prospect Stephen Marek from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Teixeira.
Not only has Teixeira been something of a second half player (over the last three seasons, he’s a .287 hitter before the break and a .307 hitter after it), but he seems to respond to being dealt to a contender, if last year’s move to Atlanta is any indication. After joining the Braves last year, he hit .317 with 17 home runs and 56 RBIs in 54 games. Not too shabby, and clearly someone fantasy owners should break the bank bidding their FAAB (free agent auction bucks) for.
Angel Stadium is a slight less favorable park for batters to hit in (particularly lefties), but Tex is a switch hitter and a player of his caliber should have little problem producing in any ballpark.
“I love playing in [Angel Stadium],” Teixeira told MLB.com. “The weather is perfect. They have a great pitching staff, which is great as a defender. They have a great group of guys that I’ve got to know in the past. I’ve had a lot of battles with those guys in the American League West (referring to his first four plus seasons with the Rangers). So I’m looking forward to going over there.”
Much as Tex loves playing in Angel Stadium, Angel Stadium will love him playing within it’s confines. This is the big fish fantasy owners in AL-only leagues have been hording their FAAB for so it’s time to open up the wallet and grab whatever spare change is lurking beneath the couch cushions, because this is the kind of guy who determines fantasy league results.
Photo courtesy of Baseball Authority
Recent Call-Ups - July 26
Fantasy owners need to know if recently recalled players can help them during the stretch run and they need to act fast when they determine a player is a worthwhile addition to their roster. The following are a couple recent call-ups and my take on what they offer, or fail to offer fantasy owners during their stay in the majors. I’m not going to discuss Clayton Kershaw again, because this is the second time he has been recalled this season and despite a rough effort in his first start in his recent recall, his future potential is obvious to all.
Jeff Samardzija, RP, Cubs
The craziest thing about the former Notre Dame football star is he has seemed to pitch more effectively at each level of his climb to the major leagues. After going 3-5 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 76 Double-A innings, he spun a 4-1 record with a 3.13 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 37.3 innings at Triple-A Iowa. His first major league outing was a mixed bag, as he gave up two hits and one run to the Marlins in two innings of work. On the bright side he struck out two, throwing 23 of his 31 pitches for strikes. His future is still bright, but much of that potential is unlikely to be realized this season.
Josh Fields, 3b, White Sox
I have been looking to pick him up in a couple of my fantasy leagues, but I have a bevy of options at third and corner infield that effectively leave me without a spot to stash him. Fields 23 dingers in 373 major league at bats in 2007 suggest we already know he is capable of producing at a big league level. That said, he’s cut from the same mold as Adam Dunn, in that his batting average will continue to be detrimental to your team. He was called up to replace Joe Crede, who has a lengthy history of back problems and, you guessed it, is on the shelf with another back problem. Team officials are indicating that Crede’s stay on the disabled list may be long, as if you needed someone to point that out to you, so Fields could help fantasy owners in the power department over the last few months of the season.
Mitch Maier, OF, Royals
Maier was called up to replace the injured Mark Teahen, but is expected to play no more than a couple times a week. Considering he was hitting .316 with nine homers, 57 runs, 41 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 345 at bats at Triple-A Omaha, it would be quite interesting to see how he produced if given the opportunity to play regularly. Fantasy owners in AL-only leagues should keep him on their radar and make a move to claim him if it looks like he’s earning more at bats than originally anticipated.
Clayton Richard, SP, White Sox
Richard got a chance to start in Jose Contreras’ absence rather than Nick Masset as originally reported. Richard was 12-6 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 19 starts this season for Triple-A Charlotte and Double-A Birmingham prior to his recall. That included a 6-0 record at Charlotte. Despite scattering seven hits and a walk, he struck out seven in his four inning debut against the Rangers, justifying his place among the strongest pitching prospects at Triple-A. He tossed 50 of his 85 pitches for strikes and impressed White Sox brass enough to earn a second start this week against the Twins. At this point
he should remain on the radar of fantasy owners, but he still seems like a longshot to earn an extended stay in the rotation.
Photo courtesy of MLB.com
X Marks the Spot
You didn’t think the Yankees would sit on their hands and watch other teams make deals before the deadline did you?
The Bronx Bombers agreed to terms on a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates that will send reliever Damaso Marte and outfielder Xavier Nady their way in exchange for a grab bag of prospects that includes right-handed pitcher Ross Ohlendorf, right-handed pitcher George Kontos, left-handed pitcher Phil Coke and right fielder Jose Tabata.
The prizes for the Pirates are Tabata, Ohlendorf, and to a lesser extent, Kontos.
Tabata has always been highly regarded, but the Yankees are gambling on the fact his athleticism is heading the wrong direction and his lack of progress with his plate discipline. There are also more than a handful of scouts outside New York that believe his questionable work ethic is detrimental to his long-term potential.
Ohlendorf once profiled to become a solid starter, but while he was particularly successful at inducing ground balls while in the rotation, he turned things up a notch when plugged into the bullpen. His fastball gained both velocity and movement and while that certainly made him a more effective reliever, it doesn’t necessarily make him a better fantasy option.
Kontos has an impressive 103 strikeouts in 107.1 innings and could factor into the Pirates rotation picture next season, but his 1.30 WHIP is fairly average considering the rest of his numbers.
As far as fantasy owners are concerned the players who are affected the most by this deal are Nady and whoever steps in as the next closer of the Pirates.
OF Xavier Nady, Yankees
| Month |
G |
AVG |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
BB% |
CT% |
H% |
BB/K |
SB% |
| Mar |
1 |
.571 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
0 |
.571 |
1.571 |
.2.143 |
0 |
71 |
67 |
0.00 |
0 |
| Apr |
26 |
.320 |
11 |
2 |
22 |
1 |
.376 |
.464 |
.840 |
8 |
84 |
37 |
0.50 |
3 |
| May |
27 |
.313 |
16 |
5 |
19 |
0 |
.384 |
.545 |
.929 |
9 |
83 |
34 |
0.59 |
0 |
| Jun |
16 |
.278 |
6 |
1 |
4 |
0 |
.350 |
.407 |
.757 |
8 |
80 |
33 |
0.45 |
0 |
Nady has been a strong contributor and has heated up as of late. In the Yankees lineup, he’ll be hitting around better players and should produce at the same clip, if not better.
The Pirates pen is essentially a mess. The leading candidates to step in as closer are Tyler Yates and John Grabow, both of which walk at least 4.0 batters per nine innings. Grabow has the slight edge in the statistical department, but reports seem to indicate Yates will get the first crack at the job. This situation is not for the weak of heart and most fantasy owners would be wise to avoid it altogether. If you are looking for some sort term saves, and have the luxury of waiting to see what happens in the first save opportunity, do so. That probably won’t be a luxury available in some leagues and for those fantasy owners, you’ll have to grab Yates and keep your fingers crossed that Pirates management is being honest. It’s fairly rare that teams favor a left hander in the closing role and that may be the deciding factor in why Grabow is edged out for the job.
Photo courtesy of zimbio.com
Project Prospect’s Top 25 Prospects - July
One of my favorite sites to visit is Project Prospect, because of their incredible work and because they delve deeper into my favorite subject in fantasy baseball–prospect prognostication. They recently posted their Top 25 prospects list for the first time in quite a while and it does cause me to ponder how long we should have patience with Marlins outfielder Cameron Maybin and his apparent lack of effort to develop more refined plate discipline. Sure he’s just 21-years old, but his 99 whiffs and 43 walks in 306 at bats suggest minimal progress.
Photo courtesy of Daylife.com
Not Such a Cuddy Buddy
The Twins have been without right fielder Michael Cuddyer since he went on the DL on June 28th with a strained tendon in the knuckle of his left index finger and despite a CT scan not revealing any further bone abnormalities, the frustration continues.
Cuddyer been experiencing soreness in the palm of his hand and even though tests are coming back without any new glaring issues, the injury has not shown much improvement since he went on the DL. According to MLB.com, Twin Cities hand specialist Dr. Tom Varecka injected the player’s knuckle and tendon sheath to try to relieve the pain, and it’s expected to be another few days before he’ll be able to determine if the injections will work.
You never want anyone to suffer through injury, but Cuddyer’s absence is actually a blessing for both the Twins and fantasy owners. This has allowed promising outfield prospect Denard Span (heir apparent to Torii Hunter when Hunter left and prior to the Santana deal) to emerge as a star. After going 3-for-4 against the Yankees on Monday, Span has hit .370 with 11 walks in 17 games since his recall in June. He’s made incredible plays in the field and there have been multiple games that he has been single-handedly responsible for getting a rally started.
Span is owned in a remarkably low 1.4% of fantasy leagues on ESPN. 1.4 frickin’ percent! Since his recall, only eight outfielders have hit for a better average and yet he can’t find a spot on the rosters of fantasy owners. He’s proven enough that he’ll get every chance to play regularly even if and when Cuddyer does return to the lineup. Don’t believe me? Consider that manager Ron Gardenhire slid center fielder Carlos Gomez to the ninth spot in the order and moved Span up to the leadoff spot for Tuesday’s game against the Bronx Bombers.
He’s proven he can be a spark plug for the Twins success and it’s time fantasy owners realize he’s more than a temporary plug in. After all, he may not be a Cuddy Buddy, but Spandom Fandom is gaining members just as quickly.
Photo courtesy of UMN.edu
Above the Beltre?
After recently being subjected to an episode of “Most Outrageous Moments,” I can honestly say I must be the only person who doesn’t find the humor in someone taking a shot to their twig and berries. In similar fashion it’s remarkably tough to find people who are fans of the often volatile Adrian Beltre. It’s true that he can be a very streaky hitter, but it seems ridiculous how some people in the industry look down on him.
On ESPN’s player rater, guys liike Aubrey Huff and Mark Reynolds remain ahead of Beltre in the third base rankings and while their numbers are marginally better than Beltre, they don’t tell the whole story.
Beltre has raised his average around 30 points in the last month and he’s considered to be a second half player, with an average over 20 points higher and a noticeable power spike.
His name has come up in trade talks recently with the Mariners season going down in flames. The most likely suitor had been the Minnesota Twins, but reports of the M’s asking them for a pair of top prospects have resulted in talks cooling. The bottom line is that fantasy owners need to consider the likelihood that Beltre is dealt. Everyone is talking about the Mark Teixeira’s and Brian Fuentes’, but no one is discussing Beltre in as much depth.
Consider Adrian’s Home/Away splits:
3B, Adrian Beltre, Mariners (Split Stats)
| Splits |
G |
AB |
AVG |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| Home |
47 |
180 |
.228 |
20 |
8 |
16 |
3 |
.302 |
.406 |
.707 |
| Away |
47 |
179 |
.296 |
27 |
8 |
30 |
4 |
.366 |
.475 |
.841 |
The average, RBI, and OPS obviously stand out and provide enough evidence that if he hit in a more favorable ballpark, he could produce at a level closer to his bigger 2004 and 2006 seasons. Unfortunately a organization like the Twins aren’t willing to give up their top prospects because it’s often the only way they can build towards getting and remaining competitive. In reality, as good as outfield prospect Ben Revere or their other prospects are, there comes a time in which you have to make the bold move to push you over the top…whether you are the Twins or a fantasy owner.
Investing in Beltre while the price is still on it’s lower end, is one of those kind of moves.
Photo courtesy of The Seattle Times
Yo Adrian!
As mentioned I told you I would do a brief synopsis of the main prospect the Athletics got in the Joe Blanton trade and here it is.
Second Baseman Adrian Cardenas is a strong player with a compact, smooth line drive swing with enough loft to produce reasonable power numbers. He’s a very average defender, but that should improve along with his power as he fills out and becomes more athletic. As his power develops, he should be capable of hitting in the middle of the order.
2B Adrian Cardenas, A-Clearwater (2008)
| Year |
G |
AB |
AVG |
R |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
67 |
259 |
.309 |
44 |
4 |
23 |
16 |
.374 |
.444 |
.818 |
Well he has certainly made progress this season, and the move to Oakland no longer blocks him like Chase Utley blocked him in Philly, he’s probably still a couple years from making an impact in Oakland. He’ll be on the fast track now that he’s in a rebuilding organization like the A’s, but fantasy owners shouldn’t waste their time investing a draft pick on him next spring unless he makes Double-A or higher prior to next spring.
Photo courtesy of Flikr.com
Rather Bland-ton
I am not a fan of Joe Blanton, but if I was a fan of the Oakland team he has now vacated, I would credit Joe with leaving behind a decent haul of prospects for a pitcher with a mediocre line of season stats.
I remember when I wrote an analysis of the Blue Jays signing of pitcher A.J. Burnett back in December of 2005. The big discussion point at the time was how a team could pay up to $55 million for a hurler who at the time was right around .500 (49-50). It seems fitting to revisit such an argument given the price the Phillies paid for Blanton who is coincidentally, a mere 47-46 in his four-plus year career.
RHP Joe Blanton, Phillies (Inside the Numbers)
| Month |
G |
IP |
W-L |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
H% |
S% |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
| March |
1 |
5.2 |
0-0 |
0 |
4.76 |
1.41 |
3 |
35 |
63 |
1.6 |
4.8 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
| April |
6 |
43 |
2-4 |
0 |
3.98 |
1.37 |
18 |
32 |
71 |
1.7 |
3.8 |
2.3 |
0.6 |
| May |
6 |
37.2 |
1-3 |
0 |
4.54 |
1.38 |
20 |
29 |
70 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
| June |
5 |
27.2 |
1-4 |
0 |
7.16 |
1.59 |
14 |
30 |
55 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
| July |
2 |
13 |
1-1 |
0 |
4.85 |
1.31 |
7 |
34 |
59 |
1.4 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
The biggest difference for me between pitchers like Burnett (who despite being a lifelong Jays fan, I detest) and those like Blanton is the strikeouts. Without those whiffs, a pitcher with this skill set is just an average pitcher. His BB/9IP in March, April, and July are certainly positive signs, but his WHIP is testament to the fact he’s not missing bats.
Another major concern is how much different the ballpark he’s left is from the one he’s going to. No ballpark in the majors (with the possible exception of how well left-handed hitters fare in U.S. Cellular Field) is more favorable to hitters, particularly in the home run department. Now consider that Blanton has allowed nine or more fly-ball outs in eight (double digit totals on five occasions) of his 20 starts this season and he is clearly prone to the long ball.
The bottom line is fantasy owners shouldn’t break the bank or even necessarily bid on Blanton in their fantasy leagues. I won’t be bidding. I am going to cover a more in depth look at the top prospect they got back in the deal tomorrow, that being second baseman Adrian Cardenas. Until then, I’m off to a late night showing of The Dark Knight
Photo courtesy of Scout.com
Updated Top Prospects
Wednesday July 16th 2008, 9:04 pm
Filed under:
Minors
I’d like to draw your attention to the fact I updated the Top 30 Prospects list with a midseason edition. Enjoy and as always, your feedback is appreciated.