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Above the Beltre?
Sunday July 20th 2008, 5:28 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

adrian beltreAfter recently being subjected to an episode of “Most Outrageous Moments,” I can honestly say I must be the only person who doesn’t find the humor in someone taking a shot to their twig and berries. In similar fashion it’s remarkably tough to find people who are fans of the often volatile Adrian Beltre. It’s true that he can be a very streaky hitter, but it seems ridiculous how some people in the industry look down on him.

On ESPN’s player rater, guys liike Aubrey Huff and Mark Reynolds remain ahead of Beltre in the third base rankings and while their numbers are marginally better than Beltre, they don’t tell the whole story.

Beltre has raised his average around 30 points in the last month and he’s considered to be a second half player, with an average over 20 points higher and a noticeable power spike.

His name has come up in trade talks recently with the Mariners season going down in flames. The most likely suitor had been the Minnesota Twins, but reports of the M’s asking them for a pair of top prospects have resulted in talks cooling. The bottom line is that fantasy owners need to consider the likelihood that Beltre is dealt. Everyone is talking about the Mark Teixeira’s and Brian Fuentes’, but no one is discussing Beltre in as much depth.

Consider Adrian’s Home/Away splits:
3B, Adrian Beltre, Mariners (Split Stats)

Splits G AB AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS
Home 47 180 .228 20 8 16 3 .302 .406 .707
Away 47 179 .296 27 8 30 4 .366 .475 .841

The average, RBI, and OPS obviously stand out and provide enough evidence that if he hit in a more favorable ballpark, he could produce at a level closer to his bigger 2004 and 2006 seasons. Unfortunately a organization like the Twins aren’t willing to give up their top prospects because it’s often the only way they can build towards getting and remaining competitive. In reality, as good as outfield prospect Ben Revere or their other prospects are, there comes a time in which you have to make the bold move to push you over the top…whether you are the Twins or a fantasy owner.

Investing in Beltre while the price is still on it’s lower end, is one of those kind of moves.

Photo courtesy of The Seattle Times


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