The stumbles of premium prospects have become a popular topic to discuss in fantasy circles and the latest is Mets pitcher Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey was ranked as the Mets top prospect by Baseball America in 2007 and the hype was running high dating back to the days in which he went 33-7 with a school record 2.18 ERA in three season at Wichita State.

His command was an issue early in his professional career, but that is no longer the case. He has learned to trust his stuff and not overthrow.

“The past month he has been unbelievable,” Mets center fielder Carlos Beltran told the New York Times. “Every time he takes the mound now, I feel like we have a chance to win the game.”

Pelfrey credits a May 31st start against the Dodgers as the key moment in which he turned his career in the right direction.

“The L.A. game, that was the game when I went out there with a plan,” Pelfrey said. “I went out there thinking I was not going to walk a lot of guys, that I wasn’t going to overthrow. I went out in the first inning and I was taking it easy, keeping it in the upper 80s.”

The catcher, Brian Schneider, went out to the mound.

“What’s wrong?” he said. “Are you hurt?”

Pelfrey said, “No, why?”

“Well, what are you doing?”

“Just making sure that I’m hitting my spots,” Pelfrey said. “I want them to hit it.”

It’s this more mature approach that has Pelfrey, who has been dropped in many fantasy league formats, rising to the top of most added lists. In a recent conversation I had with a good friend and fellow owner in one of my leagues, we discussed the exorbitant prices C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden commanded in free agent bidding following their relocation to the National League. I completely acknowledge few pitchers have been as dominant as C.C. over the last couple months, but as I saw Harden bidding creep to $48 (bidding is in actual dollars added to the league pot, not free agent bucks), I started to think I would rather have Pelfrey for the $7 I spent than a risk like Harden.

I believe a quote from Mets manager Omar Minaya sums up well my feelings of why I believe Pelfrey will continue to succeed in the second half of the season.

“What happens with young pitchers is that they’ll hit their spots in the minor leagues and then come up to the majors and think they need to hit better spots,” Minaya said. “Failure is part of the process, but once they get some confidence, the talent takes over.”

Photo courtesy of ChicagoMetsFan.com

It’s much easier to predict the finish of teams when half the season is in the books, but that’s no reason to avoid doing it. I was so tempted by the Rangers-infused All-Star week to predict a miracle finish, but the reality of it is as strong as their hitting is, and as likely as Josh Hamilton is to flirt with a Triple Crown, their pitching rotation remains awful. I also think there are enough holes in the Red Sox roster to justify them getting beat.

2008 AMERICAN LEAGUE
EAST
Boston
x-Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
Toronto
Baltimore

CENTRAL 
Minnesota
Chicago Sox
Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City

WEST
LA Angels
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

2008 NATIONAL LEAGUE
EAST
NY Mets
Philadelphia
Florida
Atlanta
Washington

CENTRAL
Milwaukee
x-Chicago Cubs
St. Louis
Houston
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

WEST
LA Dodgers
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego

x = Wild Card

ALDS
Boston over LA Angels
Tampa Bay over Minnesota

ALCS
Tampa Bay over Boston

NLDS
Milwaukee over LA Dodgers
Mets over Cubs

NLCS
Milwaukee over Mets

WORLD SERIES
Milwaukee over Tampa Bay

Photo courtesy of Rightfieldbleachers.com

It seems like few people are bold enough to say it, but there are a handful of people out there who believe Mets pitcher Johan Santana is on the decline. Count me among that group. In fact I was concerned that the number of innings and history of bone spurs in his elbow were reason enough for the Twins to sell high and for fantasy owners to have some caution approaching a guy who has been simply the most dominating pitcher in baseball for as long as I can remember. Regardless, the fine folks at Beyond the Boxscore have put together a solid analysis on whether or not Johan is declining.

Photo courtesy of Zimbio.com 

Recent reports claimed the phones at the Rogers Centre in Toronto have been quieter than the seats in a showing of the Eddie Murphy film, “Meet Dave.” The apparent lack of interest in pitcher A.J. Burnett has come to a close now that C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden are off the table and the Phillies appear to be the most interested.

According to CNNSI’s Jon Heyman, the Phillies and Dodgers appear to be the most likely suitors for Burnett and he notes that top Blue Jays executive Tony LaCava was spotted this week watching the Phillies’ Double-A Reading team, an indication things are heating up.

A report in the Globe and Mail explains the logic behind a Jays/Phils swap, the Phillies are a logical suitor. The Phillies believe the fact Burnett’s off-season home in the suburbs of Baltimore is close to Philadelphia may be enough reason for the pitcher to not opt out of the last two years of a contract that will pay him $12 million per year–a price that is actually below market value for starting pitching.

The Jays are trying to sell people on that fact and are positioning Burnett as a value at his current price. If they are able to pry one of the Phils top prospects currently at Reading (catcher Lou Marson, center fielder Greg Golson, or pitcher Carlos Carrasco), they will have made up for what in my opinion has been a debacle of a signing in Burnett.

Photo courtesy of thesportshernia.com

For those who don’t know me that well, I have been a loyal Blue Jays fan ever since I learned to turn on the game on my parents television set. There have been good times and bad times and given the recent injuries, the present time would fall into the latter.

Center fielder Vernon Wells suffered a strained hamstring while stealing third base in the sixth inning of Wednesday’s game against the Orioles. After meeting with team officials today, it was determined that he has a Grade 2 strain of the distal tendon in his left hamstring and he’ll be forced to the disabled list for the second time this season.

“The only explanation that we have,” Jays assistant general manager Bart Given told MLB.com, “is that going to third, he kind of hyperextended his knee. When you hyperextend it, you put some strain on those tendons and he has some strain to it. It’s not completely ruptured, which is good news.”

So he missed three weeks in June with a fractured wrist, and it sounds like he’ll be lucky to miss just three weeks with this hammy pull. It’s not like he’s an injury risk in the mold of Ken Griffey Jr., Moises Alou, J.D. Drew, or Milton Bradley, but he missed nine games in 2006, 12 games in 2007, and he’s already been absent from 28 games this season. It’s officially time to award him his membership card in the injury prone club.

Given the fact he’ll be sidelined until mid-to-late August, there’s only a couple weeks left of potential production from him. That leaves fantasy owners two options: 1) Sell for sixty cents on the dollar or 2) Patiently wait it out and hope you can get a modest handful of homers and RBI when he returns to the field. Neither option will be very easy for fantasy owners to stomach.

Since four week absences seem to be contagious in the Jays locker room, disappointing starting pitcher Dustin McGowan will also miss the next four weeks, but he may be the unlucky winner of an extended stay on the DL if an exam on the tear in his right rotator cuff requires surgery.

“The severity of it we won’t really know until it calms down,” general manager J.P. Ricciardi told the Canadian Press. “Then we’ll know that the process is. … Right not we’re looking at probably longer than four weeks.”

The team will compare film of his shoulder with that of previous years to determine whether the tear in his shoulder has gotten worse. The pessimism flowing through the Jays clubhouse seems to suggest he’ll miss the rest of the season regardless of a surgical procedure is in his future. Given how he was pitching as of late, fantasy owners should be well past the point of counting on him to carry their squad. The bigger issue is how tough it would be for a pitcher who still has great upside to have surgery, because it wouldn’t only end his current season, but put 2009 in serious question.

Yeah, it’s safe to say that these days I wish I had never turned on my parents TV.

Photo courtesy of Illinois State.com

The folks at Fangraphs have put together an interesting take on Marlins’ pitcher Ricky Nolasco and his recent success. Nolasco has an incredible 42:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last six starts and clearly has pitched better than he ever has before in his career. Read Fangraphs take right here.

Photo courtesy of MLB.com

Longing for the days where Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were engaged in a tag team, cage match with the disabled list, the Cubs agreed to terms with the Athletics on a six-player deal on Tuesday that included oft-injured righty Rich Harden.

Harden’s numbers this season are precisely what people figured he’d produce if he was ever able to stay healthy long enough to string together more than a handful of starts.

RHP Rich Harden, Cubs (Inside the Numbers)

Harden has been dominant for much of the season, as evidenced by the fact he didn’t pick up his first loss until his 13th start of the season. It has been arguably the most positive season of his career, but it’s tough to forget that he hasn’t made more than 19 starts in a season since 2005, and a muscle strain under his right shoulder forced him to spend a month in an all too familar place–the DL.

If you haven’t picked up on it yet, I’m still skeptical that Harden’s relocation allows him to make it through the rest of the season unscathed. He’s someone fantasy owners should still covet, but in NL-only leagues where bidding occurs to acquire new additions to the league, I wouldn’t bid more than half of what I would’ve bid on C.C. Sabathia, to acquire Harden.

Some of the experts over at Baseball HQ discussed how the move to a less favorable pitching park combined with Harden’s propensity for fly balls is a combustible combo. HQ’s Ray Murphy makes a good point when he talks about the fact Wrigley is particularly friendly to left-handed hitters and Harden’s lefty/righty splits aren’t pronounced which could lessen the potential blow, but I’m still in the camp that believes it’s more a real issue than something to be acknowledged and ushered aside so quickly.

If you haven’t had enough yet, consider that Harden’s velocity has been down in his last two starts, causing whispers of a possible dead-arm phase.

As for the other players involved, I would consider catcher Josh Donaldson and second baseman/outfielder Eric Patterson, who ranked among the top prospects in the Cubs barren minor league system, as strong chips for the A’s future, but it’s outfielder Matt Murton and pitcher Sean Gallagher who could get some playing time for the big league club this season.

Murton is a career .294 hitter in 308 games in the Majors and while it’s premature to assume he can reach that mark again, he’s certainly worth claiming in AL-only leagues.

Gallagher was 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) with the Cubs this year after a much less impressive effort last season to the tune of an 8.59 8.59 ERA in eight relief appearances in his Major League debut last year. He’s just 22, so there is bound to be bumps in the road, but his potential is significant.

On the flip side, the Cubs really like Chad Gaudin and very few people consider him as merely a throw in. Gaudin was 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 26 appearances with Oakland, and has a 3.38 ERA in his 20 relief appearances. He’ll serve as a strong bullpen arm, but could be moved the rotation if injuries or sub par performance arise.

“He’s got a nice hard sinker, and a really nice slider,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella told MLB.com. “He’ll fit in really nice in our bullpen.”

Gaudin is someone who should be on the radar of owners in deep mixed leagues, but as a middle reliever, it would be a bit early to claim him off the free agent heap.

The Cubs indeed landed their counter punch to the Brewers acquisition of Sabathia, but it would be wise for for fantasy owners not to reach for available options in the way the Cubbies did.

Photo courtesy of www.bodoglife.com

The NL Central race is heating up and it’s because of the most recent member of the division, Brewers starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The Brewers didn’t want to be scrambling to play catch up and they should be commended for setting the trade market weeks before the deadline. I strongly believe this move gives them the best rotation in the division and guarantees the worst case scenario for them is the NL Wild Card.

But what does it mean for fantasy owners?

The obvious fact is that Sabathia will get to face an opposing pitcher a handful of times each game and the way he’s pitched over his last 12 starts.

LHP C.C. Sabathia, Brewers (Inside the Last 12 Starts)

He’s been flat out dominant and his last start against the White Sox was merely a blip on an otherwise tremendous season. His WHIP, K/9IP, and BB/9IP are all improved for the better and he takes his ability to a league in which the research is well documented that is easier to pitch in.

The experts at ESPN (including my friend Nate Ravitz) speculated that Sabathia would be the second best pitcher in the National League over the course of the second half of the season to only Johan Santana and I would actually go farther to suggest he could give Johan a run for his money.

While Miller Park is more favorable to hitters than Jacobs Field, it’s particularly friendly to right handed hitters, of which they’ve hit .269 on the season and you can deduce that has been much more modest over the last seven starts considering batters hit .213 against him in June and .219 in July. He will make more of an impact than any player who switches team this season and his fantasy owners should consider it a blessing if they’re lucky enough to ride him to a championship in 2008.

Photo courtesy of CNNSI.com

The first item of business is the camouflage uniforms on Saturday night. I understand it’s Armed Forces Appreciation Day and I strongly agree that these people are extremely deserving of our praise for the sacrifices they make to keep us safe and keep us enjoying our freedoms. That’s precisely why we could do better than to put the Cincinnati Reds in camo.

Okay, now to the original intention of this post, the updated player rankings. They are here for your perusal. Click on the player rankings tab in the black navigation bar on the page and enjoy. As always, I’m very open to your feedback.

I’ve never been overly impressed with Johnny Damon. That is enough of a reason to explain why he’s rarely found himself on one of my fantasy rosters. Of course, he is on one of my teams this season, which is most certainly why he fought the wall and the wall won.

Damon tried to make a impressive catch of a Kevin Youkilis drive in Friday’s game, but crashed into the wall and all he got was a left shoulder contusion and a sprain of the AC joint in the shoulder to show for it.

Damon, who returned the ball to the infield despite the injury, told NY Newsday that the pain was pretty severe. He could not lift his arm much above his waist after the game.

“I’m definitely not going to be ready [Saturday],” Damon added. “I’m not sure how long these types of injuries last, but it doesn’t feel too good. I can’t really move it too much.”

Damon will miss the rest of the weekend and very likely head to the disabled list for the first time in his career. So what does this mean for his fantasy owners like myself? Rush to the waiver wire and claim someone like Jason Kubel, Elijah Dukes,  David DeJesus, Marcus Thames, Ryan Church, or maybe even Andruw Jones. The good news is the shoulder isn’t separated, and the injury he was diagnosed with could be addressed with a stint on the 15-day disabled list.

Photo courtesy of NY Newsday