Two Steppin’ To The Bigs
After mashing his way through a combined 297 at bats between Double-A Frisco and Triple-A Oklahoma City, the Rangers promoted corner infielder Chris Davis on Wednesday.
“It’s hard to put into words,” Davis told MLB.com. “It’s something I’ve been working toward since I was 4 years old since I knew what being in the big leagues is all about. I’m getting an opportunity to play with the best.”
All Davis has done in the aforementioned 297 at bats is hit .333 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 77 minor league games. Those are the kind of gaudy numbers major league teams expect from the first base position–the spot Davis will assume until veteran slugger Hank Blalock can return from the disabled list.
The question for fantasy owners is whether or not Davis will earn enough at bats to justify his being claimed in leagues. I wasted no time in claiming him in one of my leagues and I’ve submitted a claim in another league that processes claims each Monday. Why? Rangers manager Ron Washington has his back and has already hinted at him taking over at first base on a regular basis. “He’s a kid with a bright future who is swinging the bat very well,” Washington said. He’s a kid who has improved his defensive abilities around first base. He’s a kid who we have high hopes for.”
The thing to remember is that very few positions on the field are relied upon to drive in the number of runs typical of a starting first baseman. Consider that as of the start of the Rangers Thursday night game against the Astros, they were tied with the Royals for the fewest RBI from the first base position (26). The team has made it clear that Blalock will play when he does return to health–something that is expected following a rehab assignment in the next couple weeks, but he’s recovering from a hand injury so he’s no sure bet to produce well enough to justify regular at bats…and don’t tell me you expect Ramon Vazquez or German Duran to provide a stopgap to one of the hottest hitting prospects earning at bats.
Fantasy owners have to ask themselves about how many corner infielders they feel have the potential to club 20 dingers or drive in 30-35 runs over the course of the rest of the season. I’m not saying these are easily attainable numbers for Davis, particularly if new teammate and Triple-Crown threat Josh Hamilton misses much time after being labeled day-to-day following his taking a bean ball off his left hand on Thursday. Nevertheless, Davis was clearly raking in the upper levels of the minors in an eerily similar way to that of Brewers eventual Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun did last season. Sounds like a two step worth gambling on.
Photo courtesy of MLB.com
Post-Free Week
I felt the need to post a message to alert all my readers that I will not have internet access until Friday, June 27th. I will make sure I get back to the buy low, sell high, recent call-ups when I return and hope you all have a great week.
Zambrano vs. Workload: Advantage Workload
When Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano was still an up-and-coming prospect and Mark Prior was still in the rotation picture, I was in the first season of the favorite of my three fantasy keeper leagues. I was fortunate enough to get my hands on him late in my draft and keep him for a few years before a light bulb went off and I felt strongly that the time was right to trade him.
RHP, Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
| Year |
G |
IP |
W-L |
SV |
ERA |
WHIP |
K |
BAA |
K/9 |
| 2002 |
32 |
108.1 |
4-8 |
0 |
3.66 |
1.45 |
93 |
.235 |
7.7 |
| 2003 |
32 |
214 |
13-11 |
0 |
3.11 |
1.32 |
168 |
.239 |
7.1 |
| 2004 |
31 |
209.2 |
16-8 |
0 |
2.75 |
1.22 |
188 |
.225 |
8.1 |
| 2005 |
33 |
223.1 |
14-6 |
0 |
3.26 |
1.15 |
202 |
.212 |
8.1 |
| 2006 |
33 |
214 |
16-7 |
0 |
3.41 |
1.29 |
210 |
.208 |
8.8 |
| 2007 |
34 |
216.1 |
18-13 |
0 |
3.95 |
1.33 |
177 |
.233 |
7.4 |
| 2008 |
16 |
106.1 |
8-3 |
0 |
3.13 |
1.33 |
68 |
.259 |
5.8 |
If you look closer at the stats above, you can see why I was compelled to deal the Cubs ace. The most obvious reason was the average of just under 216 innings per season for the last five years. That combined with the fact he was facing between 27 and 28 batters per game through those seasons had me more than mildly concerned his arm would give out sooner than later.
I haven’t looked quite so shrewd in my assessment, as a couple years have past and still certain guys like Indians pitcher C.C. Sabathia and Zambrano continue to buck the research done over at Baseball HQ that has done a very good job at forecasting risk in pitchers, specifically their likelihood for injury. While Carlos hasn’t missed many games during the last few years, his numbers have started to show the effects of being overworked. His K/9IP, control (bb*9/IP), ERA, and WHIP have all taken a turn for the worse, while his fly ball rate has risen–a sure sign that he’ll be serving up more homers over the next couple seasons.
The bottom line is that regardless of how serious the results of the MRI on his shoulder ends up being, I wanted nothing to do with him prior to the injury and I strongly believe his fantasy owners should sell him while they still can.
Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated.
Cahill Earns Promotion
Fantasy owners have been drooling over the potential of plenty of promoted pitching prospects this season, but one that has yet to make it to the bigs is Athletics prospect Trevor Cahill. Cahill was promoted to Double-A Midland after a very impressive start for Single-A Stockton.
“Cahill prepares himself so well, and his numbers are phenomenal,” Single-A manager Darren Bush told the Stockton Record. “It’s tough to replace him, but that’s the process. We want him to get to the next level and succeed.”
Cahill put together a 5-4 record with a 2.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 10.95 k/9IP in 87.1 innings.
Considering the A’s could be selling off most of their talent in a month, it’s not out of the question that Cahill is promoted to make his major league debut straight from Double-A before the major league season is over. It would be particularly aggressive even for a franchise like the Athletics, but if he is successful at Double-A the team will have little reason to hold him back. Regardless of where his progress takes him this season, he is clearly a pitcher that should be near the top of every fantasy owner’s top prospect lists next season.
Photo courtesy of Scout.com
Forget about the curve ball Ricky, give him the heater.
Every time I read about Tigers pitching prospect Rick Porcello, I can’t help but recall the famous quote from “Major League.”
“Forget about the curve ball Ricky, give him the heater.”
- Manager Lou Brown
Porcello is pitching well so far in his first professional season, and the guys at Fangraphs had a blurb about him that I found worthwhile. Enjoy it here.
Photo courtesy of DetroitTigersWebblog.com
Head(ley) of the Class
The Padres have had their ups and downs this season, and while they have been playing better as of late, the organization can longer resist the temptation to promote their top prospect outfielder/third baseman Chase Headley from Triple-A. Headley, the converted third baseman who has been playing the outfield this season, was hitting .305 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs in 65 games for Triple-A Portland.
Headley wasn’t able to play on Sunday, but will be with the team when they open an interleague series against the Yankees in the Bronx on Monday. “I think the environment is much better than it was three weeks ago,” Padres general manager Kevin Towers told MLB.com. “We have got a lot of guys contributing offensively. When he gets here, he shouldn’t have to feel like he’s got to carry this ballclub. We’re playing good baseball now. To me, now is kind of the right time to have him here, when things are going well.”
The Padres have been looking forward to his arrival for at least a season now and Towers elaborated on the kind of potential he has. “He’s kind of been our, the last two years, top prospect in the system,” Towers added. “So it’s always exciting when a [Jake] Peavy, an [Oliver] Ollie Perez, Khalil Greene … when they finally get here. You’ve been waiting for that event to happen.”
To offer my take on Towers assessment, I don’t think Headley makes the kind of impact a Jake Peavy does, but he has much more potential than Khalil Greene. He really committed himself to ascending to the majors this past offseason, adding 15 pounds of muscle and putting in the extra work to show the Padres he’s put the necessary polish on his hitting ability. He’s certainly major-league ready and at this point it would behoove fantasy owners in all but the shallowest mixed leagues to consider picking him up and plucking him into a third base/corner infielder spot. He should get the number of at bats common for regulars as early as this week given the fact outfielder Scott Hairston is hurt and starting third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is overdue for a routine day off (he’s played in all but one game this season).
Photo courtesy of MLB.com
Putzing Around the Truth?
I studied art and communications in college, not science. On top of this, I was not given the gift when it came to understanding biology, chemistry, and other sciences like my father. Had I shown a greater affinity for the sciences, I could probably call upon some sort of medical background to offer a more detailed examination of Mariners’ closer J.J. Putz. Since I’m not, I’ll have to rely on my 16 years of experience of reading through the cryptic injury speak thrown around by major league teams.
I don’t buy that a hyperextended elbow is all we are dealing with when it comes to Putz. Chris at Disabled List Informer agrees with me to a certain extent.
The Mariners placed Putz on the 15-day DL on Friday after seeing the results of an MRI exam taken on Thursday. Despite that exam showing no structural damage in his elbow, the team seemingly rushed to get him on the shelf despite previously mentioning waiting until Monday to determine a course of action.
On top of that, Putz told The Seattle Times that he experienced numbness in his fingers after throwing a split-fingered fastball on Wednesday in Toronto, and he immediately began to wonder about what he’s heard other pitchers claim–numbness being the symptom of serious arm injuries.
“They said the first thing they felt was the numbness in their fingers and that shooting pain,” Putz said. “So when I had that, [Thursday] was miserable until we got the results.”
I just have a tough time believing that he isn’t dealing with a more serious injury. So even if he comes off the DL and reclaims the closer role for a period of time, I don’t believe he’ll make it through the rest of the season without a flare up. In fact, Brandon Morrow, who has a 4.2 K:BB ratio in his last 14 innings, is a must add in all fantasy leagues in which he hasn’t already been claimed. I think his future in coming seasons is in the M’s rotation, but for now I’d make him an even bet to have the most saves of any arm in the Mariners’ bullpen through the rest of the season. Sounds like a bet that you won’t need science to prove.
Photo courtesy of Prospect Insider.Wordpress.Com
Seller’s Market - June 13 Edition
Knowing when to buy and sell players in fantasy baseball is not unlike playing the stock market. Correctly predicting a streak of excellence or futility is a difficult, but essential ingredient to the success of a franchise. The players that follow are a couple key sell high candidates for fantasy owners looking to avoid future slumps and make a push in their standings over the remaining few months of the season.
Jorge Cantu, 3b, Marlins
Anyone who tells you they expected Cantu to club 14 homers, drive in 46 runs, and hit .291 through 254 at bats is full of it. His 14 dingers puts him half way to his career high and while he’s the right age (26) for a breakout, he’s simply hitting at a level that is too great to maintain. The main reason he won’t be able to remain as successful is the fact his batting eye is questionable. Case in point, his very average batting eye (K/BB) of 2.5 in 258 at bats. He may be making more contact with the ball these days, but the margin between his current success and his average numbers of the last few seasons isn’t that great.
Milton Bradley, OF, Rangers
Over the last two weeks, only one player has driven more balls into the stands than Bradley and we just finished discussing him (Cantu). Bradley has been benefitting from hitting behind the blistering hot Josh Hamilton in the Rangers’ lineup, and has connected on six homers and has driven in 14 runs in just 35 June at bats. The reason why fantasy owners should strike while the iron is hot is Milton’s lengthy injury history. He hasn’t accrued more than 351 at bats in a single season in any of the last three years and he’s already dealt with knee, hamstring, shoulder, and quadriceps soreness this season. He’s a ticking timebomb and while fantasy owners will likely continue to benefit from his hot hitting, but that run may come to an abrupt end if fantasy owners don’t act fast.
Bartolo Colon, SP, Red Sox
Over the last 28 days, only the Phillies’ Jaime Moyer has more wins than Colon. I don’t fault fantasy owners for picking up Fatolo when he came back to the majors. I did. I do turn up my nose at them if they expect his success to continue through much of the rest of the season. Sure he’s 4-1 on the season, but he’s gone into the seventh inning just once in five starts and he’s given up at least five hits in each of those outings. In case you don’t remember last year, he came back from an injury just like this year, rattled off five straight wins, and then proceeded to lose eight of nine decisions over the rest of the season (albeit missing all of August). This kind of pattern has become commonplace with Colon throughout his career and it would behoove those fantasy owners who took a chance on him to recognize this and make an appropriate move while he still has some value.
Elbowed to the Shelf
Indians catcher Victor Martinez gutted it out as long as he possibly could. After playing through a left hamstring strain since Opening Day and an inflamed right elbow since mid May, Martinez was finally put on the disabled list on Thursday.
“I gave it everything I had for the longest I could,” Martinez told MLB.com. “I just couldn’t take it any more.”
An MRI exam taken on Thursday revealed what the Indians already suspected–loose bodies floating around the back of Martinez’s elbow. The 29-year old catcher will undergo arthroscopic surgery Friday at the Cleveland Clinic, and be sidelined for at least six to eight weeks.
“When I really wanted to put something on a swing, I wasn’t able,” Martinez said. “Every time I tried to get extension, I felt a sharp pain in my elbow. Man, it was tough. It’s tough to play like that.”
This development is obviously best for V-Mart in the long run and it may not be as dire as fantasy owners expect. Why? Kelly Shoppach assumes the starting catcher duties and he’s talented enough to be starting on a handful of other major league teams. At first glance his .238 average leaves a bit to be desired, but it’s tough to get in a groove when you’ve got just 84 at bats under your belt. His four walks compared to 27 strikeouts is obviously a bad sign, but his three homers in limited action are enough to suggest he has some potential to contribute in the power categories.
If you aren’t interested in hitching your wagon to Shoppach, consider the following players who could still be free agents in your league: the Pirates’ Ryan Doumit, Rays’ Dioner Navarro, Diamondbacks’ Chris Snyder, or Royals’ Miguel Olivo. As previously mentioned, V-Mart should be sidelined a minimum six to eight weeks, so undertstand that whomever you rely on may only be a temporary replacement.
Photo courtesy of Tribe Treasures
Metacarpal Madness
The Cubs have been the talk of Major League Baseball this season, but they were dealt quite a blow on Wednesday when superstar outfielder Alfonso Soriano was hit in the left hand by pitch. Braves pitcher threw a pitch that rode up high and inside on Soriano in the second inning and as the veteran tried to avoid the ball, the sphere hit off his left and he bounced into his head.
Trainer Mark O’Neal and manager Lou Piniella came out of the dugout and Soriano was in noticeable pain, kneeing down and favoring his hand while O’Neal examined him. He was escorted to the dugout and was taken to a hospital for X-rays. Those tests showed a fracture to the left metacarpal bone. The initial reports expect Fonzie to be in a splint for three weeks and be sidelined a minimum of six weeks, putting him in line to return in late July at the earliest.
Mark DeRosa and Reed Johnson should see more regular at bats in the outfield, while Mike Fontenot likely earns more at bats at second base. All of these players are decent fantasy options only in NL-only leagues at this point. Owners in deep mixed leagues may want to roll the dice on DeRosa, but only because his eligibility is an asset (he’s eligible at second, third, and outfield in leagues that use a 20-game requirement). For owners desperate to find a replacement outfielder, consider the Nationals’ Elijah Dukes, Marlins’ Cody Ross, Giants’ Fred Lewis, or Indians’ Ben Francisco.
Photo courtesy of Collegepublisher.com