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Cubs Counterpunch
Wednesday July 09th 2008, 8:13 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

rich hardenLonging for the days where Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were engaged in a tag team, cage match with the disabled list, the Cubs agreed to terms with the Athletics on a six-player deal on Tuesday that included oft-injured righty Rich Harden.

Harden’s numbers this season are precisely what people figured he’d produce if he was ever able to stay healthy long enough to string together more than a handful of starts.

RHP Rich Harden, Cubs (Inside the Numbers)

Month G IP W-L SV ERA WHIP K H% S% BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9
Marc 1 6 1-0 0 1.50 1.00 9 20 100 4.5 13.5 3.0 1.5
Apr 1 5 0-0 0 0.00 1.60 6 33 100 7.2 10.8 1.5 0.0
May 4 23.2 2-0 0 3.42 1.23 26 33 71 3.0 9.9 3.3 0.4
Jun 5 32.1 2-0 0 1.67 0.93 42 25 89 3.1 11.7 3.8 0.8
Jul 2 10 0-1 0 3.60 1.50 9 34 73 4.5 8.1 1.8 0.0

Harden has been dominant for much of the season, as evidenced by the fact he didn’t pick up his first loss until his 13th start of the season. It has been arguably the most positive season of his career, but it’s tough to forget that he hasn’t made more than 19 starts in a season since 2005, and a muscle strain under his right shoulder forced him to spend a month in an all too familar place–the DL.

If you haven’t picked up on it yet, I’m still skeptical that Harden’s relocation allows him to make it through the rest of the season unscathed. He’s someone fantasy owners should still covet, but in NL-only leagues where bidding occurs to acquire new additions to the league, I wouldn’t bid more than half of what I would’ve bid on C.C. Sabathia, to acquire Harden.

Some of the experts over at Baseball HQ discussed how the move to a less favorable pitching park combined with Harden’s propensity for fly balls is a combustible combo. HQ’s Ray Murphy makes a good point when he talks about the fact Wrigley is particularly friendly to left-handed hitters and Harden’s lefty/righty splits aren’t pronounced which could lessen the potential blow, but I’m still in the camp that believes it’s more a real issue than something to be acknowledged and ushered aside so quickly.

If you haven’t had enough yet, consider that Harden’s velocity has been down in his last two starts, causing whispers of a possible dead-arm phase.

As for the other players involved, I would consider catcher Josh Donaldson and second baseman/outfielder Eric Patterson, who ranked among the top prospects in the Cubs barren minor league system, as strong chips for the A’s future, but it’s outfielder Matt Murton and pitcher Sean Gallagher who could get some playing time for the big league club this season.

Murton is a career .294 hitter in 308 games in the Majors and while it’s premature to assume he can reach that mark again, he’s certainly worth claiming in AL-only leagues.

Gallagher was 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA in 12 games (10 starts) with the Cubs this year after a much less impressive effort last season to the tune of an 8.59 8.59 ERA in eight relief appearances in his Major League debut last year. He’s just 22, so there is bound to be bumps in the road, but his potential is significant.

On the flip side, the Cubs really like Chad Gaudin and very few people consider him as merely a throw in. Gaudin was 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 26 appearances with Oakland, and has a 3.38 ERA in his 20 relief appearances. He’ll serve as a strong bullpen arm, but could be moved the rotation if injuries or sub par performance arise.

“He’s got a nice hard sinker, and a really nice slider,” Cubs manager Lou Piniella told MLB.com. “He’ll fit in really nice in our bullpen.”

Gaudin is someone who should be on the radar of owners in deep mixed leagues, but as a middle reliever, it would be a bit early to claim him off the free agent heap.

The Cubs indeed landed their counter punch to the Brewers acquisition of Sabathia, but it would be wise for for fantasy owners not to reach for available options in the way the Cubbies did.

Photo courtesy of www.bodoglife.com



Central Heating
Monday July 07th 2008, 8:19 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

CC SabathiaThe NL Central race is heating up and it’s because of the most recent member of the division, Brewers starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia.

The Brewers didn’t want to be scrambling to play catch up and they should be commended for setting the trade market weeks before the deadline. I strongly believe this move gives them the best rotation in the division and guarantees the worst case scenario for them is the NL Wild Card.

But what does it mean for fantasy owners?

The obvious fact is that Sabathia will get to face an opposing pitcher a handful of times each game and the way he’s pitched over his last 12 starts.

LHP C.C. Sabathia, Brewers (Inside the Last 12 Starts)

Month G IP W-L SV ERA WHIP K H% S% BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9
May 6 44.1 2-3 0 2.44 1.11 41 31 82 1.6 8.3 5.1 0.8
Jun 5 38 3-1 0 1.89 0.95 44 31 80 1.7 10.4 6.3 0.2
Jul 1 8 0-0 0 4.50 1.13 5 22 71 2.3 5.6 2.5 2.3

He’s been flat out dominant and his last start against the White Sox was merely a blip on an otherwise tremendous season. His WHIP, K/9IP, and BB/9IP are all improved for the better and he takes his ability to a league in which the research is well documented that is easier to pitch in.

The experts at ESPN (including my friend Nate Ravitz) speculated that Sabathia would be the second best pitcher in the National League over the course of the second half of the season to only Johan Santana and I would actually go farther to suggest he could give Johan a run for his money.

While Miller Park is more favorable to hitters than Jacobs Field, it’s particularly friendly to right handed hitters, of which they’ve hit .269 on the season and you can deduce that has been much more modest over the last seven starts considering batters hit .213 against him in June and .219 in July. He will make more of an impact than any player who switches team this season and his fantasy owners should consider it a blessing if they’re lucky enough to ride him to a championship in 2008.

Photo courtesy of CNNSI.com



Updated Player Rankings - July
Sunday July 06th 2008, 9:08 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Griffey CamoThe first item of business is the camouflage uniforms on Saturday night. I understand it’s Armed Forces Appreciation Day and I strongly agree that these people are extremely deserving of our praise for the sacrifices they make to keep us safe and keep us enjoying our freedoms. That’s precisely why we could do better than to put the Cincinnati Reds in camo.

Okay, now to the original intention of this post, the updated player rankings. They are here for your perusal. Click on the player rankings tab in the black navigation bar on the page and enjoy. As always, I’m very open to your feedback.



Damon vs. Wall, Advantage: Wall
Saturday July 05th 2008, 6:14 am
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Johnny DamonI’ve never been overly impressed with Johnny Damon. That is enough of a reason to explain why he’s rarely found himself on one of my fantasy rosters. Of course, he is on one of my teams this season, which is most certainly why he fought the wall and the wall won.

Damon tried to make a impressive catch of a Kevin Youkilis drive in Friday’s game, but crashed into the wall and all he got was a left shoulder contusion and a sprain of the AC joint in the shoulder to show for it.

Damon, who returned the ball to the infield despite the injury, told NY Newsday that the pain was pretty severe. He could not lift his arm much above his waist after the game.

“I’m definitely not going to be ready [Saturday],” Damon added. “I’m not sure how long these types of injuries last, but it doesn’t feel too good. I can’t really move it too much.”

Damon will miss the rest of the weekend and very likely head to the disabled list for the first time in his career. So what does this mean for his fantasy owners like myself? Rush to the waiver wire and claim someone like Jason Kubel, Elijah Dukes,  David DeJesus, Marcus Thames, Ryan Church, or maybe even Andruw Jones. The good news is the shoulder isn’t separated, and the injury he was diagnosed with could be addressed with a stint on the 15-day disabled list.

Photo courtesy of NY Newsday



Deal for Sabathia Brewing?
Friday July 04th 2008, 6:09 am
Filed under: Majors

CC SabathiaIf reports are true, the C.C. Sabathia sweepstakes could be over before they started.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal claims the Brewers’ offer for Sabathia includes Class AA left fielder Matt LaPorta, according to sources with two other clubs that are interested in acquiring the pitcher. It also possible that promising shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar could be a part of the deal as well.

“I can not imagine anyone would top that,” the first source told Rosenthal.

The second added, “That deal should get it done.”

The Brewers would be paying quite a price for a pitcher like Sabathia, who will be a free agent following the season and is no sure bet to sign a contract extension in Milwaukee. That said, the Brew Crew has more pressure to win now considering pitcher Ben Sheets will also be a free agent and first baseman Prince Fielder may be dealt before the team faces the fact he may also not resign with the team when he becomes a free agent.

The other teams interested in Sabathia (Phillies, Cubs, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox) don’t have the minor league assets the Brewers can offer and while the Rays may come close, they simply aren’t willing to pay for three month rental.

It’s premature to assume this deal happens, but what should fantasy owners expect if C.C. heads to the National League? It’s typically been easier to pitch in the NL because they get to face another pitcher once every nine batters.

On top of that, a 2007 report in the New York Times citied that 57 starting pitchers switched leagues from 2000 through 2005 — 29 to the N.L. from the A.L. and 28 in the other direction. Their statistics moved with them: Combined E.R.A.s for the new National Leaguers decreased to 3.94 from 4.79, or 0.85 of a run, while their counterparts’ increased to 4.64 from 3.94, a move of 0.70.

There is plenty of evidence to suggest this trend and it’s enough reason to believe that the worst-case scenario for a potentially NL-bound Sabathia would be him pitching as well as he has over his last 14 starts. If C.C. tosses another “good not great” start like his last (8 IP, seven hits, two walks, four earned runs, five strikeouts), it may finally start to open up a window for fantasy owners to trade for him at a price that isn’t as high as his earlier dominance would seem to suggest.

Photo courtesy of the Cleveland Leader.



Tribe Turning the Bullpen On End
Thursday July 03rd 2008, 8:14 pm
Filed under: Strategy, Uncategorized

Joe BorowskiThe Indians have finally grown as sick and tired of Joe Borowski.

Following today’s meeting of the minds, manager Eric Wedge is expected to name a new closer or allude to a committee of of Masa Kobayashi, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez.

“We talked about immediate changes and things that could take place in the coming month,” general manager Mark Shapiro told the Cleveland Plain Dealer when asked about today’s meeting.

While Shapiro’s comment is a bit more cryptic, it’s clear that the closer role will be the main focus when it comes to changes. The reasons for the change include the fact batters are hitting .395 off Joe Blow (no pun intended) with four homers, numbers that have resulted in him blowing (still no pun intended) four saves and putting up a 12.46 ERA in those contests.

Cleveland Indians Bullpen (Inside the Numbers)

Player G IP W-L SV ERA WHIP K H% S% BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9
Kobayashi 39 41 4-4 4 3.29 1.22 26 28 78 2.4 5.7 2.4 1.1
Betancourt 38 37.1 2-4 4 6.03 1.53 38 36 64 2.9 9.2 3.2 1.7
Perez 38 36.2 1-1 0 3.44 1.39 37 33 80 3.4 9.1 2.6 1.2
Borowski 18 16.2 1-3 6 7.56 1.92 9 34 64 4.3 4.9 1.1 2.2

Looking at the reports and the numbers it seems that Kobayashi will get the first call and it’s probably him and Betancourt that will be favored in the battle simply because they have the most experience closing out games. That said, despite 229 saves in Japan, Masa wasn’t perfect when he briefly closed out games earlier this season (he converted four of his six opportunities). Betancourt would have been the shoo in for the job at the outset of the season, but his command has clearly regressed some this season so he’s no safe bet in this battle for saves.

The wild card in this situation is Perez, who despite walking 3.4 batters per nine innings, has some upside. His 80% strand rate is particularly appealing in a closer. Accordingly to Baseball HQ, strand rate measures the percentage of allowed runners a pitcher strands, focusing on earned runs. On top of an incredible strand rate, his 9.1 K/9IP and his increase in ground balls forced make him probably the most complete candidate to be closing games in Cleveland.

Don’t count on him getting the opportunity though. In fact, in all but the largest leagues with the largest rosters, it’s probably too early to claim Perez. If you decide to wait on doing so, be prepare to act should he get the first call this weekend.

Photo courtesy of Cleveland.com



Capps’d Out
Wednesday July 02nd 2008, 8:29 pm
Filed under: Strategy, Uncategorized

Matt CappsThe news of Pirates reliever, and now former closer, Matt Capps being out for the next eight weeks will have a significant effect on many fantasy league races down the stretch. Luckily the only team I had him on was the one of my four squads that really doesn’t have much of a chance. In case you aren’t privy to his injury, the team site has a good report and Chris at Disabled List Informer goes into depth on what internal rotational deficit really is here. Needless to say, if Damaso Marte has already been claimed in your league, it’s best to avoid reaching for mediocre Pirates relievers who may or may not factor into the committee (a.k.a.: Tyler Yates and John Grabow).

Photo courtesy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.



Top 25 Under 25
Tuesday July 01st 2008, 8:49 pm
Filed under: Minors, Strategy

Hanley RamirezThe folks over at Project Prospect continue to do great work and they recently released an updated list of the Top 25 players under 25 years old. The names I found most interesting were Brian McCann ranking ahead of the likes of Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, and Nick Markakis (to name just a few. You can find the list here.

Photo courtesy of Sporting News



A Giant Among Giants
Monday June 30th 2008, 9:16 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Jonathan SanchezOnly three teams have fewer wins in the National League than the San Francisco Giants and yet they are widely considered one of the worst teams due to the lack of overwhelming fantasy commodities they present. Sure they have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and they are elite and productive players respectively, but the one player who has taken the biggest step forward for them this season is their rotation mate, Jonathan Sanchez.

LHP Jonathan Sanchez, Giants (Inside the Numbers)

Year G IP W-L SV ERA WHIP K H% S% BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9
2006 27 40 3-1 0 4.95 1.55 33 32 67 5.2 7.4 1.4 0.5
2007 33 52 1-5 0 5.88 1.63 62 37 66 4.8 10.7 2.2 1.4
2008 17 102 8-4 0 3.79 1.34 102 31 73 4.1 9.0 2.2 0.7

Sanchez has made the right adjustments and has continue to cut down on his walks while maintaining a strong dominance rate (K/9IP). The biggest maturation is he’s not overthrowing and relying more on command to baffle hitters.

His teammates and coaches agree.

“Sanchez has got a different look to him, and he doesn’t lose his focus anymore,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy told the San Francisco Chronicle. “He used to start over-throwing and have trouble repeating his delivery, but now, he just keeps his poise.”

To put into perspective how on a roll he has been, Sanchez is undefeated in six consecutive road starts, and while he has been torched for seven runs in three starts this season, he’s allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his 10 starts dating back to April 11.

“He trusts himself a lot more because he sees that his ball moves a lot and hitters are having a hard time putting good wood on it,” catcher Bengie Molina added. “He’s probably unknown for now, but he’s going to be known soon because people have to realize the pitcher he is. If he takes advantage of this, this could be the turning point of a great career.”

Sanchez credits the addition of a sinkerball to his arsenal this season as a major reason for his step forward, but the stats above indicate there are many reasons for his maturation. He’s truly become a giant among Giants and I’m thrilled that I have him on my side in at least one of my fantasy leagues.

Photo courtesy of MLB.com



Futures Game Keeps On Giving: Part Deux
Saturday June 28th 2008, 9:06 pm
Filed under: Minors, Strategy

Gorkys HernandezAs promised, your top five prospects on the World team for the upcoming MLB Futures game.

WORLD

1) OF Fernando Martinez, Mets
175 at bats, .303 AVG, three HR, 22 R, 16 RBI

Scouts have drooled over Martinez for years and while the young outfielder is still just 19 years old, it’s remarkable that he hasn’t made more progress with improving his plate discipline. I’m skeptical that he’ll become the five-tool prospect in the mold of Carlos Beltran or Vlad Guerrero in their heyday and feel we may just have to be happy with the conclusion John Sickels drew about him—a Garret Anderson type of player (strong average despite horrible plate discipline).

2) OF Gorkys Hernandez, Braves
183 at bats, .311 AVG, four HR, 31 R, 24 RBI, seven SB

Only a hamstring injury was able to slow Hernandez—a toolsy outfielder that any major league team would be thrilled to slot in at the top of their lineup. He makes solid contact and has a disciplined enough approach at the plate to mature into an elite leadoff hitter at the major league level. He is however just 20-years old and needs another couple seasons in the minors to polish up his game before settling into a starting role in Atlanta.

3) C/1B Max Ramirez, Rangers
237 at bats, .363 AVG, 17 HR, 49 R, 50 RBI, two SB

The recently promoted Ramirez barely makes the list over teammate Chris Davis simply because I believe Davis has more potential and will earn a larger share of the at bats in the current platoon. His defensive ability is enough of a question mark to guarantee a move to first base or elsewhere on the diamond and while he’s never had a problem hitting the ball, it’s difficult for me to imagine him out producing some of the other aforementioned Rangers sluggers.

4) RHP Carlos Carrasco, Phillies
97 IP, 5-7 record, 4.18 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.3 K/9IP, 2.3 K/BB Ratio

Carrasco has always been a highly regarded prospect, but it seems like he’s shown some improvement this season. This is obvious when you consider he’s been able to maintain his command while improving his K/9IP and all while mixing his pitches to better keep hitters off balance. His repeatable delivery is also considered a plus, particularly since he has a max-effort delivery that might seem to suggest future injury is imminent. He’s not going to be a dominant starter at the major league level, but he’s certainly capable of being an effective arm in the middle of a rotation.

5) OF Geraldo Parra, Diamondbacks
283 at bats, .300 AVG, four HR, 36 R, 29 RBI, 15 SB

Parra is just 20 years old and there are heaps of doubt that he’ll ever develop any power, but he can hit for average and profiles to be a Gold Glove caliber defender at the major league level. He has the makings of a solid offensive approach, but needs another couple seasons to refine it in the minors.