In a recent post I discussed the issue that is evaluating and regulating trades in keeper leagues. Before I venture deeper in this post, I feel the need to explain why keeper leagues are far superior to redraft leagues.

While this is a glorified hobby we all enjoy, the idea is that we are afforded the opportunity to run a baseball team on a much smaller scale. We don’t make decisions on marketing budgets, stadium food and promotions, and which direction to rake the dirt in the infield, but instead we focus on the kind of decisions a general manager would have to make regarding his personnel on the field. Keeper leagues are better than redraft leagues because we get to make decisions knowing they have a longer lasting effect on how competitive our franchise will be.

So that brings me back to the point of this post, making trades in keeper leagues.

I prefer to be extremely liberal with my approach with what trades I allow to pass in my keeper leagues, even when they generate a string of hot-tempered emails. Coincidentally, a recent deal [Johan Santana (1) and Carlos Lee (2) for Matt Kemp (26), Dana Eveland (30), and Daric Barton (late 20s)–2008 rounds in parenthesis are approximate] discussed in the post I linked above did cause me to stop and think about the effect of these trades being approved.

The problem I keep coming back to is the conflict between dump trades and potential collusion versus giving owners every opportunity to rebuild their teams so they can be more competitive. On the opposite extreme of the aforementioned Santana trade, you have some keeper leagues starting to adopt part of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) rulebook which outlaws trades altogether. That works in redraft leagues, but severely reduces the options available to owners in keeper leagues.

I’ve seen leagues that limit the number of keepers per team, limit the number of players you can exchange with each competing team during the course of one season, not allow prospects to be traded before they get called up, etc. etc. I don’t particularly like any of those rules, though I still participate in some leagues that use these type of regulations. I’m very interested in reader’s respective takes on this issue. I don’t want to limit owners in keeper leagues, but some of these types of trades have too much of an effect on the standings.

So where I’m at on this road of exploration is requesting that readers submit their ideas as to how to regulate trades in leagues…particularly if they are in keeper leagues. I plan on revisiting this in coming weeks.

If there is any truth to Charley Waters’ report in the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Twins fans officially have every reason to detest their team’s former ace, Johan Santana.

The report states that the slimy southpaw forced the Twins hand, telling management that unless he was traded by Tuesday, he would not waive his no-trade contract clause, would go to spring training and would play this season with the Twins, eventually becoming a free agent at season’s end. In that scenario, the Twins’ only compensation for him would be two draft picks.

This certainly makes Twins GM Bill Smith less deserving of criticism for the trade he approved on Tuesday. He still could’ve jumped at the offer the Yankees had on the table back around the Winter Meetings, when pitcher Phil Hughes and outfielder Melky Cabrera were the majority of a very solid offer. An offer I strongly believe was the best one the Twins received throughout the process.

Now we see that only a physical and contract extension prevent the Mets from finalizing this deal. It’s at that point that I’ll pour myself a glass of disgust to wash down my amazement at just how ridiculous professional athletes can be when they don’t get what they want. It will be interesting to see if the bone spurs that once had experts worried about the possibility of Tommy John surgery for Johan ever return to rear their ugly head. I never wish ill will upon anyone, because that’s simply uncalled for. That said, if the elbow issues ever do return for undoubtedly the best starting pitcher in baseball, it couldn’t happen to a more worthy adversary.

Maybe Mr. Mets’ efforts worked.

Before I get too far ahead of myself I suppose I should apologize for my skepticism over local Minnesota sports writer Charley Walters prognosticating that a deal was imminent in the next 10 days. I believe it only took about two.

Of course nothing is final until pitcher Johan Santana passes a physical and agrees to a contract extension, but it sounds like the Twins have finally agreed to trade him to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Carlos Gomez, and pitchers Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. While Minnesota wasn’t able to pry heralded No. 1 prospect (outfielder Fernando Martinez) from the Mets, they did end up with four of their top seven prospects, according to Baseball America.

It goes without saying that some of the notable Mets are pleased with the move.

“For our younger pitchers to develop under a guy like Pedro, a guy like Johan, you can’t ask for any better situation,” third baseman David Wright told the Associated Press. “He’s going to go out there and he’s going to give you seven or eight innings every five days and he’s going to get you a win. That’s just what it comes down to. I’ve gotten a chance to get to know him a little bit the past couple years. He seems like a great clubhouse guy. He’s going to fit in perfectly with the chemistry that we have.”

What Wright should add is accolades for GM Omar Minaya. Heck, while we’re at it we could even dole out some compliments for Yankees unofficial GM Hank Steinbrenner and Red Sox GM Theo Epstein for their persistence in not breaking in and giving Twins counterpart Bill Smith everything he asked for. After all, Johan requested a trade, obviously putting more pressure on the Twins to make a deal than the Mets, Red Sox, and Yankees.

The prize of the deal–at least in my eyes–is Guerra, who won’t turn 19 until the third week of the 2008 season and is probably the farthest away from the majors of any of the players heading west to Minny. The Mets have been almost meticulous in monitoring his workload and it’s obviously justified given his bout of shoulder tendinitis in 2007. He needs time to polish up his command and approach on the mound, but if any franchise can mold him into a front-of-the-rotation starter, it’s probably the Twins.

This deal doesn’t significantly affect the fantasy value of the players heading to Minnesota. Some experts claim Carlos Gomez’s fantasy value will spike because of the fact he’ll be the odds on favorite to break camp as the starting center fielder. I question what they like about his .232 average and 27 strikeouts in 125 at bats last year. Sure he stole 12 bases during that stretch, but he clearly hasn’t shown he’s on the cusp of stardom. As far as Santana goes, I think the deal makes him even more valuable. He’ll get more consistent run support and should find winning games that much easier. For one thing, he gets to face a pitcher once every nine batters and it should be amusing in an America’s Funniest Home Videos sort of way to watch NL pitchers try to flail away at a Santana offering. On top of that, Shea Stadium has typically been regarded as a better pitchers park than the Metrodome, despite recent trends in ballpark factors over the last few seasons. While there are at least eight or nine hitters I would take before I even remotely considered drafting a starting pitcher in the first round of my fantasy leagues, there is little doubt in my mind that Johan could return the necessary value to return such an investment.

As we return from fantasy to reality, I think it’s obvious that your average Minnesota fan won’t be willing to accept the fact that it could take three years before we have a thorough idea of just how much value the Twins got out of this deal. Given the fact these fans are suffering through Star Defection Syndrome after seeing so many stars pack their bags and head east, it’s understandable that it won’t be easy to stomach for most fans. In the end, there is no doubt in my mind it was the right move for the Twins franchise. Why? Because it’s tough to invest five or six years at $25 million per in a pitcher, given they’re more likely than position players to succumb to an injury.

I have more respect for ESPN’s Buster Olney than many baseball analysts in the world, but I’m not sure if he has a complete picture of the latest developments in the Johan Santana trade negotiations. In today’s blog entry he cites Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, who claims that a Santana deal is imminent in the next 10 days. Olney adds fuel to the fire by claiming Walters has been “dead on” in his coverage of and predictions of what the Twins do next in regards to personnel decisions this off season.

While I’m not skeptical the deal will eventually happen, I have seen and heard evidence of Walters stretching the truth as someone who lives in the Minneapolis area. It’s actually evident in his coverage of the local NBA Developmental League team, the Minnesota Timberwolves (what…you say they’re a real NBA team?). Regardless, I’m gauging Walters Nostradamus-like skill set after I see what transpires over the next two weeks.

I’m in the camp that the Twins benefit as a franchise more by trading Johan than keeping him. Fortunately I have more faith in Twinkies management to get a deal done than I have in any of the other Minnesota franchises.

Stay tuned, because all the reports in papers in New York and Minnesota lead me to believe something goes down before the team heads north from Spring Training.

The on again, off again trade talks between the Orioles and Cubs appear to be on again.

At least for the moment.

Orioles owner Peter Angelos nixed a 7-for-2 deal at the end of last week, that would’ve sent both second baseman Brian Roberts and coveted pitcher Erik Bedard to the North Side. Now, there are reports that a source high up in the Orioles organization has told Chicago Tribune writer Phil Rogers that negotiations are heating up. No names are specifically mentioned, but you’d have to imagine that more than just Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton are involved.

The latest wrinkle is the Cubs interest in Rangers outfielder Marlon Byrd and Texas’ insistence that Gallagher, Murton, and possibly one other player are involved. For Marlon Byrd? FOR MARLON FREAKING BYRD?

The real eyes are on Bedard, who I think could see his numbers improve if shipped to Chicago. The change in ballpark is slightly–albeit minimally–in his favor and there is no question that he’d be the beneficiary of more consistent run support given the Cubs offense. That said, it’s tough to imagine his fantasy value climbing higher since only three starting pitchers are being drafted ahead of him and his average draft position is 42.92 in the latest ADP report over at Mock Draft Central.

It’s amazing to think that both Bedard and Twins ace Johan Santana could be dealt before the season starts. Color me skeptical, but I do believe neither team can afford to pay their ace and it’s in their best interest to deal them while they can get max value in return. In the case of the Orioles, they’ve made their Bedard, now we’ll see what the future holds.

One of my recent columns for Mock Draft Central has drawn significant attention from some people in the fantasy industry. I guess it took me by surprise that there are relatively well known faces in the industry that offered comments and one that even asked if he could post my article on his site. This would be my Bold Predictions column, which is my attempt to delve deeper into predicting some of the big events of the upcoming season. We won’t tell you Alex Rodriguez will hit 30 homers or Johan Santana will win 15 games, because even the least knowledgeable baseball fan can figure out those events are highly likely to occur. I hope you enjoy the column, linked to here.