Top 30 Prospects - UPDATED
Just a quick post to let you know that after some encouragement from readers I’ve decided to update my Top 30 Prospects list each month as well as the Player Rankings. The first update has been made and you can find it if you follow the Top 30 Prospects link off my home page.
Photo Courtesy of Dallasbat.net
Hill Street Blues
After Saturday’s debacle, it appears Cubs starting pitcher Rich Hill may need a vacation. Not the kind where he slathers on the sunscreen and enjoys an umbrella drink by the ocean, but the kind where he is jettisoned from the starting rotation until he figures out his issues. Hill was pulled after just two thirds of a inning against the Cardinals on Saturday. It was a meltdown of sorts, as he walked four of the six batters he faced and appeared completely lost after getting extra time between his starts in order to figure out his inconsistent results on the mound this season. The result was the threat that he could lose his spot in the rotation to young hurler Sean Marshall.
“Hill can’t start like this in the big leagues — c’mon,” manager Lou Piniella told MLB.com. “Every time he pitches, it’s an adventure. He’s doing his best, but we have no bullpen. I don’t know what the solution is, but I can’t start him any more until this thing gets taken care of.”
The fireballing Cubs pitcher didn’t need his manager’s quote because he felt plenty disgusted as it is, saying, “It’s embarrassing to go out there and throw the ball that way, and know that you’re far better than that and a far better pitcher than that.”
So what happens next? It’s difficult to imagine the Cubs getting the feedback they need on how Hill’s command is progressing from something as simple as bullpen sessions. It would seem likely that a move to the bullpen or Triple-A Iowa would be the only way to boost his confidence and get his control dialed back in. Neither possible scenario has been discussed in depth (at least to my knowledge) within the Cubs organization, but it seems to be the road that Hill’s 2008 season is heading down.
Fantasy owners shouldn’t bail on Hill just yet, but it will leave an obvious void in their lineup. His possible replacement (Marshall) brings a solid groundball approach to the table, but his control and command aren’t noticeably better than Hill’s. If you need a possible waiver claim to cover the spot in your rotation, consider the Athletics’ Chad Gaudin, Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez, Indians’ Aaron Laffey, Pirates’ Paul Maholm, Rays’ Andrew Sonnanstine, or Cardinals’ Joel Piniero.
EDITORS NOTE: Approximately an hour after this post, the Cubs demoted Hill to Triple-A and recalled promising prospect Sean Gallagher. Gallagher has plenty of potential in the long-term, but it’s veteran Jon Lieber who will be replacing Hill in the rotation. Lieber has had his ups and downs throughout his career, but he’s certainly a decent filler for the back of rotations in deep mixed leagues.
The Link Parade
It’s been awhile since I’ve done this, but I wanted to get you some stories to devour before I head out of town for the weekend. I probably won’t be able to post until Sunday, but I’ll do what I can.
I’m giddy over the fact one of the prospects I invested in this season (Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson) had a productive major league debut.
Former closer Mike Gonzalez had a productive debut following reconstructive elbow surgery. Fantasy owners need to monitor his progress as well as the progress made by Rafael Soriano–this year’s elbow challenged closer.
Twins speedy outfielder Carlos Gomez turned heads early in the season, but his recent slump dealt him a day off on Thursday.
Is it time to put up your Dukes?
Astros outfielder Michael Bourn is in no rush to return from a groin injury, and third baseman Ty Wigginton could start rehab next week.
Brian Fuentes closed out his first save since taking the closing duties back in Colorado.
Athletics start Rich Harden tossed a bullpen session today, but I’m still skeptical.
Updated Player Rankings - April
The time has come for an update to the player rankings. My goal is to provide an update once a month that takes into consideration the latest happenings and weighs them against the projected end of the season performance.
NOTES FROM THE UPDATE:
FIRST BASE:
It pains me to return Albert Pujols to his rightful spot atop the first base rankings because it means I have to eat a large plate full of crow. He still has an elbow injury, but because he’s raking at the plate and his elbow hasn’t blown out, all is peachy. I still am skeptical and think it’s entirely possible that he plummets from his perch by midseason. The group we should keep the closest eye on is from James Loney down to Ryan Garko, because while many of these players have already had strong starts to their seasons, any of them are capable of a hot stretch at the plate at any moment.
SECOND BASE:
I would totally love to get Howie Kendrick closer to the top of these rankings and his start to the season would’ve justified it if not for his recent rash of injuries. Aaron Hill is the real deal and while my Bold Predictions post here predicted he would lead all second basemen in homers and while his power hasn’t materialized to that extent yet, only two starting second basemen have a better average through 16 games.
SHORTSTOP:
Last year it was Jimmy Rollins who enjoyed a breakout season and while the season is certainly still young, I believe this year it’s Raffy Furcal.
THIRD BASE:
Despite the quadriceps injury, I can’t justify moving A-Rod down. I fully expect Evan Longoria to climb these rankings more by the end of the season and I’m giddy over the fact I have him secured for many more years in one of my keeper leagues for a much cheaper price than the Rays had to pay. I omitted Mark Reynolds from my preseason rankings…Ooops! Joe Crede made the preseason cheatsheet, but he may have climbed the rankings farther than any other batter in these rankings.
OUTFIELD:
Still think B.J. Upton isn’t capable of a repeat performance? Jays outfielder Vernon Wells has an early beat on the Comeback Player of the Year award, trailing only Angels hurler Ervin Santana in that department. Every draft I’m in I see Jermaine Dye slide and not get the credit he deserves. What’s not to like about his .344 average, 12 runs, and eight RBI? B.J better watch his back, because his brother is raking at a rate he could only dream about when he was 20 years old.
DESIGNATED HITTERS:
Frank “Big Hurt” Thomas has to fall in the rankings until we figure out who he signs with.
STARTING PITCHERS:
Call it a leap of faith keeping Scott Kazmir at the 8 spot in the rankings. I thought I ranked Johnny Cueto high enough, but he has simply exceeded EVERYONE but his own expectations. I may have moved Ervin Santana up too high, but after his impressive eight innings of three-hit, zero walk, eight K ball against the Mariners, it’s tough not to do so. On the flipside, it’s tough not to slide C.C. S-sucky-A down to 40 among starters. It’s a tough call, but I firmly believe he could be hiding an injury or at least feeling the effects of excessive innings over the last couple seasons. How long will the Yankees deal with subpar performances from Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy before they push Joba Chamberlain into the rotation? Drum roll please….the two starting pitchers I’d rather leave off the list entirely, but struggle to rank are Ben Sheets and Rich Harden. May they stay far, fary away from all of my fantasy rosters. Some very interesting young pitchers I’m closely monitoring the performance of these days are: Scott Olsen-Mariners, Jonathan Sanchez-Giants, Dana Eveland-Athletics, and Nick Blackburn-Twins.
RELIEF PITCHERS:
I’m still hoping Kerry Wood and Brandon Lyon lose their closer jobs, hence the presence of Carlos Marmol and the ever so slight miss of Tony Pena in the rankings. I think Manny Acosta should be owned in EVERY league by now because Rafael Soriano continues to experience soreness in his elbow and has dating back to spring training. It seems like the kind of malady that will effect him all season, which could mean plenty of save opportunities for Acosta.
Boo Boo for B.J.
Rays outfielder B.J. Upton was forced out of Thursday’s game after taking a Paul Byrd pitch above his left elbow. The initial diagnosis is a triceps contusion and X-rays on Upton’s arm were negative.”He couldn’t really feel the grip, so we got him out of there and got some ice on it,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told MLB.com. “[It’s] just sort of in a bad spot, where it was going to swell up very quickly, which it did. We’ll see later, but we think he’ll be fine.”
Upton is currently ranked third among second baseman in my player rankings. At this point, I don’t think this injury will cause him to move significantly in those rankings. If he fails to make progress and looks as though he’ll miss some of the regular season, it would behoove fantasy owners to take a more cautious approach. Only then will I force myself to make a decision on how much to adjust his ranking. It’s worth noting that a contusion is essentially a deep bruise and shouldn’t suddenly make him much more injury prone. He should have plenty of time to rest up and be ready for Opening Day.
There are a variety of opinions regarding whether or not Upton can match last season’s production and I won’t get into those now, but I believe he can still hit .300 (though not .330) and post his second straight 20-20 effort this season. If the competition in your league believes this injury reduces him to an average level, kindly offer to find a spot on your roster for him.
Burnett “Nailed” With Injury
It starts early this year for Jays pitcher A.J. Burnett. I’m of course referring to his propensity for injury and the development of a torn fingernail on his right index finger that is preventing him from throwing his hammer curveball early on this spring.
“It makes it pretty tough to get to that pitch. It’s pretty tender,” Jays pitching coach Brad Arnsberg told the Toronto Star.
This is not as significant of an injury as we’ve become accustomed to with Burnett, and it shouldn’t be reason to worry or knock him significantly down your fantasy rankings…yet. Last year it was his fourth start before he threw a single breaking ball, so there is still time for him to adjust and be prepared for the start of the regular season. Nevertheless, it’s tough to remain optimistic about a player who has been on the DL four times in his two seasons with the Jays.
“It’s giving him a chance to work on his other pitches. But he’s a little frustrated with his change-up right now. We’ll probably go to the drawing board and see if we can come up with another grip,” Arnsberg added.
Arnsberg and Burnett are working to build a training regimen that will keep the veteran hurler healthier this season, but it remains to be seen if they can pull of that miracle. Despite the obvious risk, there are many people who remain quite optimistic that A.J. can build upon a solid stretch in August and September in which he went 5-2 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.7 K:BB rate, and 8.8 K/9IP. He’s a top 25 starting pitcher in fantasy leagues on upside alone, but could fall at least 10 spots if you factor in risk.
Funny Baseball Links
As I spend a chilly Sunday afternoon writing my latest Line of Questioning column for Mock Draft Central and watching the Michigan State Spartans annihilate the Indiana Hoosiers in mens hoops, I felt compelled to give you something a little lighter to fill the day. Below you will find some baseball related links from the Onion. If you don’t know what the Onion is you need to get out more. It’s a satirical paper that writes spoof stories based on real current events and they are gut-wrenchingly funny in almost all of their efforts. A few of my recent favs are below…
- World Series Flyover
- Canseco’s Party
- Player to be Named Later
Line of Questioning - AL Central
My “Line of Questioning” series of articles over at Mock Draft Central continues with a look at the AL Central. In this series I’m looking at the top 10 questions that I think fantasy owners want answered in each division. There are probably other questions left out that you’d like answers to, but I picked the ones I thought were the most interesting. You’ll find the AL Central article here.
New Address!
Just a quick post to make my readers aware of the new address for 108 stitches. You will still be able to access the site with the URL you’ve become familiar with (108stitches.wordpress.com), but I’ve finangled my way through the administrative steps to get my hands on the web address: the108stitches.com.
So please start using that URL despite the fact either will get you to your intended destination. Thanks and just to let you know I am always open to your feedback! I will receive your feedback if you post a comment on the “Ask the Expert” page, and it won’t necessarily post to the site. Thanks.
Updated Player Rankings
Just a quick post to let readers know that the player rankings page was updated tonight. You’ll see some shifting as I aim to dial these in prior to draft day!