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Gallar-Done
Friday May 02nd 2008, 4:14 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Yovani GallardoThat’s right, we got a sweet whole two games from Brewers pitcher Yovani Gallardo in between trips to the disabled list.

For a fantasy owners like myself who saw bright lights and championships in my future with him anchoring my pitching staff, I just threw up in my mouth over the drastic turn of events that have unfolded over the last few hours.

Gallardo was injured during a play during Thursday’s game when he ran over to first to cover on a slow roller from Cubs outfielder Reed Johnson and when first baseman Prince Fielder made the tag, Gallardo was forced to hurdle Johnson, landing awkwardly on his right leg. He remained on the ground for a little while showing minor discomfort before walking off the injury, completing the inning, and tossing an additional inning before eventually leaving the game.  Doctors confirmed that staying out to pitch didn’t cause further damage to his knee, but an MRI exam on Friday morning confirmed that he’ll miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. The only good news to come from this is that the team expects Yovani to be ready for the start of the 2008 season.

“We had high hopes for Yovani,” general manager Gord Ash told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. “You can’t replace the talent level. You just have to have other guys step up. It’s a significant loss.”

Sadly, the statement above holds true for fantasy owners to a certain extent. “You can’t replace the talent level.” Of course not unlike the Brewers, you have to try in order to field a competitive team for the last five months of the season. Milwaukee recalled Dave Bush, who made an impressive start, allowing one earned run over six innings for Triple-A Nashville.

How to fantasy owners recover from the loss of a pitcher who has, or at least had, as much potential as almost any pitcher in baseball?  It seems likely that in most leagues pitchers such as Edwin Jackson, Chad Gaudin, and of course phenom Max Scherzer are long since plucked from the waiver wire. Consider Gallardo’s replacement, Bush, who may not have pitched that well so far this season at the major league level, but his skill set is promising (6.5 K/9IP and 3.0 K:BB ratio). A few other possible free agents in your league depending on it’s size might include the recently recalled Yankees’ starter Darrell Rasner, Indians’ Aaron Laffey, Pirates’ Paul Maholm, Rays’ Andrew Sonnanstine, or Cardinals’ Joel Piniero.

Another option may include trading for pitchers who have yet to perform up to their full potential. Some of those who qualify who I believe are on the verge of turning things around are: the Reds’ Johnny Cueto, Tigers’ Justin Verlander, and the Mets’ John Maine.



Much Ado About Frank
Thursday May 01st 2008, 9:24 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Francisco LirianoOver the past week of enjoying my recent conversion to the land of HDTV, I’ve been subjected to countless runs of the Go Phone ad that features singer, “Meatloaf” and his family reworking what I view as one of the most irritating songs I’ve heard during my 31 (almost 32) years of life. “Paradise by the Dashboard Lights” is an ironic title considering I’m in anything but paradise whenever I hear it. Needless to say, over the last seven days it’s become abundantly clear that Meatloaf–whether the singer or the rectangular chunk of meat–has the same nauseating effect on me.

I’m getting equally as disgusted with the obsessive tracking of Francisco Liriano’s shortcomings in his return from Tommy John surgery. The latest was the report of his first start since being sent back to Triple-A Rochester, where he gave up five hits, four runs, and five walks while striking out three. As the southpaw was making that start, his manager Ron Gardenhire chimed in on the situation, telling the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, “I think that he was a little–how would I put it?–confused.” “Because he really thought he had it all. He thought he could come up here and dominate some people. And it was an eye opener for him, which is good. Because you need to have a little fear in you in this game.”

The guy is 17 months post op and it seems like he’s already dead to some people. This despite the fact that it seems we’ve seen plenty of cases in which a pitcher doesn’t really return to form until two years after undergoing the surgical procedure. Of course this flies in the face of research done by Dr. Brett W. Gibson of the Penn Sports Medicine Center in Philadelphia and his colleagues. Their studies showed that of 68 Major League Baseball pitchers who underwent the surgery between 1998 and 2003, most (82 percent) returned to play within an average of 18.5 months post-surgery with no change in average earned run average or walks or hits per innings pitched. On top of that, approximately one in seven pitchers in the majors has had the procedure and many of them are still pitching in the league which obviously suggests they are effective.

So Liriano sits at Triple-A and could be in the minors for the foreseeable future. In fact, I wouldn’t be stunned if he was demoted even further down the farm to Double-A or even High-A, because sooner or later the most important thing (even more so than the healing process) becomes rediscovering his confidence. Sure, he has to heal to be able to pitch, but that is all for naught if his confidence is shaken. While I may be in the minority, I’m not ready to dismiss the possibility that he could once again become a very effective pitcher. Given the fact he needs to address what was a wicked delivery which subsequently led to the injury, he may not be quite as dominant as he was in his rookie season, but very few pitchers are.

As a fantasy owners I’m simply not ready to give up on him. In fact, as someone who limits his participation to keeper leagues as much as possible, I’m a little intrigued by the fact that a season like this could drive his price down next season. It could present a great buying opportunity if more and more fantasy owners jump off the bandwagon. I don’t know about you, but I’m willing to listen to that damn Go Phone commercial another 12 times if it means I have an opportunity to make a thrifty acquisition that still possesses long-term potential.

Photo courtesy of the San Francisco Chronicle



Sure Thing Scherzer?
Wednesday April 30th 2008, 6:15 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Max ScherzerThere is no bigger story today than the major league debut of Diamondbacks pitching prospect Max Scherzer last night.

Facing the Astros, Scherzer struck out seven in 4.1 perfect relief innings. The flame-throwing righty barely made it back to the locker room before fans called local sports radio shows to demand their very own Maximus be thrust into the starting rotation as soon as possible.

Ask and you shall receive.

Prior to Wednesday’s game, Manager Bob Melvin announced that the young phenom will start Monday’s game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. “He doesn’t have to be a five-pitch guy,” Melvin told the Arizona Republic. “He’s one of those few guys who can get by just on his fastball. But as a hitter, you can’t just sit on that. He has a real easy delivery, and that adds to the ball getting on you quicker than you expect, especially the first time you see him.”

There is no disputing his ability, as he ranked as the Diamondbacks fourth best prospect in Baseball America’s preseason top 10’s, and that is with outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and pitcher Brett Anderson ahead of him (both were dealt to Oakland shortly after the D-backs top 10 posted). His biggest asset is a sinking fastball that broke one bat on Tuesday and clearly overpowered every hitter he faced. Despite his manager’s assertion that all he needs is one pitch, it would seem necessary for him to develop his other pitches in order to remain in the rotation. He’s done just that, with Melvin admitting that his off-speed pitches had “more shape” to them yesterday.

Where there is some confusion is that Melvin insists he has an easy delivery, but a handful of minor league scouts that Baseball America talked to claim he has a violent head jerk at the end of his pitching motion that could cause problems. Then they refute that warning sign to a certain extent by mentioning his competitiveness, athleticism, and strong frame among his strengths. If you weigh all of this out I strongly believe Max is someone you should take an aggressive approach towards buying. That means for those owners in deep mixed leagues with plenty of your free-agent bidding dollars left should consider him one of the most sought assets you’ll see this season. It seems highly improbable that he’ll lose his rotation spot once given the opportunity and he could be a bigger difference maker than ANY player who started the season on top prospects lists.



Joe Bo Making Progress
Tuesday April 29th 2008, 9:44 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Joe BorowskiIndians reliever Joe Borowski, who is on the disabled list with a strained right triceps, showed he is making progress by playing catch Monday and Tuesday, extending it out to 75 feet.

“It’s feeling as normal as normal can be right now,” Borowski told MLB.com. “Hopefully, it just keeps progressing.”

Joe Bo was shut down by the Tribe after blowing two of his first four save opportunities and he’s expected to miss another couple weeks as he tries to keep building up the strength in his arm. The most notable nugget from this news story is that manager Eric Wedge has already made it clear that current closer Rafael Betancourt will return to his setup role once Borowski is healthy enough to take back his role as stopper. I’m torn as to if I should suggest buying low on Joe Bo or selling high once he returns to the closer role. He doesn’t have the peripherals of Betancourt or Rafael Perez, but he seemingly has the trust of his manager despite a shaky WHIP and ERA. The best thing I can suggest right now is that fantasy owners who haven’t dabbled in the Indians bullpen should continue to take that approach. Those Betancourt owners should see if they can buy low on Joe Bo, but unfortunately it will be difficult for owners to pull off the reverse of that deal (buying on Betancourt).

Photo courtesy of USA Today



Hamstrung Hank
Monday April 28th 2008, 8:09 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Hank BlalockOne of the most popular sleepers in fantasy leagues this spring is now expected to miss three to four weeks after suffering a hamstring injury. Monday’s MRI exam on the right hamstring of Rangers third baseman Hank Blalock revealed a partial tear, sending him to the disabled list for the foreseeable future. He received an injection of anti-inflammatory medication but is expected to miss at least three to four weeks, according to the Dallas Morning News.

Ramon Vazquez started the two games Blalock has missed thus far and is expected to see the majority of at bats while Hammering Hank is on the shelf. The big problem the Rangers face with the shift of Vazquez into the starting lineup is that it leaves them thin on the bench, particularly in terms of infielder depth.

It seems to suggest that they could recall someone, but few minor league infielders are healthy and/or performing well enough to justify a promotion. One guy to keep an eye on is outfielder Nelson Cruz, whose .538 on-base percentage leads all of organized baseball. Fantasy owners would be wise to keep an eye on if Cruz is promoted and take a chance on him in deep mixed leagues in the event that does occur. Meanwhile those left with a significant hole in their lineup due to Blalock’s absence will have to dig for options. Vazquez is an average one, and it seems unlikely that players like Joe Crede or Evan Longoria are still available in leagues. It’s possible that Scott Rolen was dropped in your league and he’d certainly be a viable waiver claim given the alternative.



Calm Before the Storm for Delmon?
Sunday April 27th 2008, 8:05 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

A quick glance at the last week, you don’t see any overwhelming signs that the breakout everyone expects out of Twins outfielder Delmon Young is coming anytime soon. That’s when you need to look deeper into said numbers.

Manager Ron Gardenhire moved Young down in the lineup for the current series against the Texas Rangers, and it has produced better results. “Delmon had great at-bats tonight,” Gardenhire told MLB.com regarding Saturday’s game. “I think you saw a big difference in him. Tonight he laid off a lot of tough pitches and got in good hitting counts and then ends up driving in runs.” This came just one day after an 0-for-5 disaster that left Gardy questioning Young’s decision making in the field and free-swinging ways at the plate.

Patience is the only attribute that has been in question when it comes to Young’s skill set.

OF Delmon Young, Twins (Last Three Years)

Year G AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG OPS BB% CT% H% BB/K SB%
2005 136 .318 93 26 98 32 .360 .533 .893 5 82 34 0.31 30
2006 116 .316 66 11 69 24 .339 .375 .814 3 81 37 0.18 26
2007 162 .288 65 13 93 10 .316 .408 .723 4 80 34 0.20 8
2008 24 .258 11 0 8 4 .289 .312 .601 4 83 31 0.25 21

If you look at his walk rate (BB%) you’ll see it’s consistently in the 4 range, which is significantly lower than the five-year league average of 9. There is no questioning Young’s skill set and tantalizing ceiling, but until he polishes up his approach at the plate, that superstar label will remain slightly out of reach. Given the fact he’s starting to take some baby steps, now may be the time to buy low on him.



The Link Parade
Thursday April 24th 2008, 8:57 pm
Filed under: Uncategorized

It’s been awhile since I’ve done this, but I wanted to get you some stories to devour before I head out of town for the weekend. I probably won’t be able to post until Sunday, but I’ll do what I can.

I’m giddy over the fact one of the prospects I invested in this season (Red Sox pitcher Justin Masterson) had a productive major league debut.

Former closer Mike Gonzalez had a productive debut following reconstructive elbow surgery. Fantasy owners need to monitor his progress as well as the progress made by Rafael Soriano–this year’s elbow challenged closer.

Twins speedy outfielder Carlos Gomez turned heads early in the season, but his recent slump dealt him a day off on Thursday.

Is it time to put up your Dukes?

Astros outfielder Michael Bourn is in no rush to return from a groin injury, and third baseman Ty Wigginton could start rehab next week.

Brian Fuentes closed out his first save since taking the closing duties back in Colorado.

Athletics start Rich Harden tossed a bullpen session today, but I’m still skeptical.



A Position Eligibility Travesty
Wednesday April 23rd 2008, 1:49 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

Pujols 3I’m still waiting to hear whether or not Albert Pujols will be in the lineup at first base or second base tonight against the Pirates. Why must I even ask the question? Because of some shenanigans last night in a 12-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers.

After second baseman Cesar Izturis was injured when an Eric Gagne pitch hit him in the arm and caused him to be unable to play second base when the game went into extra innings. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa met Pujols and third-base coach Jose Oquendo after the half-inning in which Izturis sustained the injury and explained the need to shift Pujols over to second base with the understanding that he wouldn’t attempt to convert double plays or make any fancy defensive plays. According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, La Russa entertained putting Schumaker at second base but instead went to Pujols, who at first lobbied to play shortstop, his position at Maple Woods Community College.

So I realize that La Russa didn’t consider how this move would affect fantasy leagues and it’s laughable to suggest that he should have, but that doesn’t negate the fact that league commissioners need to react to the development in an appropriate manner.

I’m not going to suggest that every league needs to be run the way I would run a league, but it’s games like the Cards/Brew Crew contest yesterday that should cause you to evaluate your league’s position eligibility requirements. It’s safe to say that the majority of leagues require a player appeared at 20 games at a position last season to be eligible at that position this season. Typically a similar number is required to gain eligibility during the current season. There are however those leagues that award eligibility based on a single game which means Pujols will be appearing at second base for the next five-plus months.

I think I just lost my lunch.

You would’ve thought we would’ve learned back when outfielder Jermaine Dye played a single game at shortstop during the 2005 season, but the desire to differentiate your league can sometimes lead to overlooking logic. If nothing else, consider this post my attempt to stand on my soapbox and plead with commissioners everywhere to talk through and consider the effects of even the smallest rule in your league constitution, because no one wants to be beaten by Albert Pujols the second baseman.

EDITORS NOTE: I’m still just as worried about Pujols’ elbow injury as I was this spring and at some point this season, his fantasy owners will have a difficult decision to make regarding if they want to continue to gamble on his health or sell high.

Photo Courtesy of Fox Sports



Project Prospect’s Top 25 Prospects
Tuesday April 22nd 2008, 5:28 pm
Filed under: Minors, Strategy

Jay BruceI am thoroughly enjoying Project Prospect’s coverage of all things Minor Leagues and they put up their Top 25 Prospects today. I’m working on a Market article for Mock Draft Central due tomorrow and will post that here when it’s complete and submitted. Until then, enjoy Project Prospect and while you are looking at it, consider whether or not you’d like me to incorporate more minor league information into the108stitches.com, including similar top 25 lists and updates on how those talented youngsters you may have invested in are faring down on the farm.

Photo Courtesy of Rotobuzz.com



Polanco Presents Buy Low Opportunity
Tuesday April 22nd 2008, 5:55 pm
Filed under: Majors, Strategy

PolancoIn the early going this season, Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco has seen his numbers fall to a paltry level they have rarely reached before. A back injury has been much to blame for his mediocre results, but he may have received some good news regarding that malady on Monday.

Polanco underwent an MRI on his back over the weekend and results came back on Sunday that revealed no structural damage and led to him being considered day-to-day.

“He might be able to play tomorrow if he’s all right,” manager Jim Leyland told MLB.com on Monday, following the Tigers’ 5-1 win over the Blue Jays. “They said [the medication] could work right away and make him feel good. There was some inflammation there. That’s what they found out. But no dysfunctional stuff, no muscular problems, no nerve problems. So that’s really good news.”

Buying low on injured players can be a tricky task to accomplish, not to mention one that carries significant risk for fantasy owners. That said, the evidence is there to suggest that Polanco is a risk worth taking. Beyond the obvious fact that he hits in a lineup that will produce runs consistently over the course of the season, he has hit .295 or higher in each of the last four seasons, including over .315 in two of the last three years. He’s obviously not going to outproduce top second baseman like Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, or Aaron Hill, but if you need upside in the batting average and runs categories, now may be your buy low opportunity.

Photo courtesy of USA Today