Despite my attempt at humor with the headline, it appears the calf injury of Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols is no laughing matter and actually quite serious. Chris from Disabled List Informer has a great analysis of the injury and he was right in expecting Chris Duncan to come up and fill in. The only question there is exactly how appealing his .252 average, four homers, and 16 RBI in 127 at bats really is to fantasy owners. Here is the link to Chris’ article.

Photo courtesy of Daily Illini.com

Sometimes the biggest bang for a fantasy owner’s buck is the relatively obscure minor leaguers who have earned a promotion to the big show. Sifting through the pile of recent call ups to determine which players are worthwhile investments can have a significant impact on the numbers of any fantasy squad–even if it’s only fill in duty during a couple weeks while a more established player is on the DL. The following are a few of the more notable call ups over the past week.

Josh Barfield, 2b, Indians
I still remember when Barfield was an elite prospect and I made it a personal goal to acquire him in my dynasty-esque keeper league. Lucky for me I was never able to sell my soul to acquire him. When second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera proceeded to asdrubal all over himself to the tune of a .184 average in 158 at bats, Barfield logically got the call, because regardless of his past struggles, he still has the most upside of any middle infield prospect the Indians have at the upper levels of their minor league system. He went hitless through six at bats before spraining his left middle finger during Tuesday’s game and effectively limiting any
potential he had in fantasy leagues.”I’ve never been hurt before,” Barfield told MLB.com with a smile. “I’m not sure what the terminology is, but I’m fine.” He was replaced by Jamey Carroll, who will likely play for a day or two until Barfield is ready to return to the lineup. Even when he does return, it’s too early for fantasy owners to claim and rely on him to produce.

Jeremy Sowers, SP, Indians
When the return of Jake Westbrook became surprisingly brief, Sowers became the beneficiary, making his spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future. The problem was his season debut didn’t exactly inspire, as he scattered seven hits, two walks, and five earned runs while striking out just two. Not unlike Barfield he was once a top prospect and he’s found himself in the dark place forgotten top prospect go when they are discarded and left for dead by fantasy owners. He was pitching effectively at Triple-A Buffalo, with a 4-3 record, 2.08 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 2.5 K:BB ratio, so it’s far too early to write him off yet. For fantasy owners in deep AL-only leagues it’s probably time to stash him on your bench and keep your fingers crossed.

Homer Bailey, SP, Reds
In my only league in which Bailey was a free agent, I made a mistake and claimed him before he had cleared waivers. I got my slap on the hand and was told to wait another seven days for him to clear. The interesting thing is that by the time he cleared said waivers, I really wasn’t interested in taking him any longer. Why? Because when he’s in the minor leagues he’s like Dr. Jekyll, but when he’s in the majors, he morphs into Hyde. His season debut wasn’t nearly as rough as some of his starts last year, as he held the Philies to two earned runs in six and two thirds innings, but the fact he gave up four hits and four walks while striking out a
measly batter is somewhat disconcerting. He is too highly regarded of a talent not to scoop him up immediately and perhaps I’ll regret not staying up to the crack of dawn to claim him, but at this point he’s a stash and follow commodity.

A strained quadriceps is one thing, but any time you have a tear in any muscle or ligament it’s much more disconcerting. Such is the case with Braves third baseman Chipper Jones.

I don’t own Jones in any of my leagues, but I’m growing quite concerned over his injury. Disabled List Informer talks about the blood pooling in the injured area and while I lack the medical background he does, I would agree with his speculation that a mere four-day hiatus will not be enough time for this injury to heal, and it’s likely this malady will continue to hamper Chipper until he gets an extended break.

Chipper has made some progress. “I did swing the bat today and it felt fine,” Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “But a simple quad stretch is painful, so running is out of the question, at least for the next couple days.” In fact, Jones may not play until the Braves open a series against the Angels in Los Angels on Friday. I’m VERY concerned.

I believe that despite Jones’ gaudy numbers and potential for more, considering his average is slightly better in the second half of the season than the first over the course of his career. It’s worth noting that the Braves are 0-6 with Chipper out of the lineup and it’s clear that they want him back in their lineup. I don’t think they’ll rush him, but I don’t think they’ll need to in order to put undue added stress on the injured right quadriceps. He’s been dealing with this injury since April and it’s clearly not getting any better. It has the making of one of those tweaks that is supposed to keep him out a few days, but ends up keeping on the shelf for six weeks. That’s not what the experts are saying, but it’s what I have seen play out with nagging injuries such as these with other players I’ve owned on past fantasy teams. This is why when he puts together a solid string of games again, fantasy owners should strongly consider selling high.

The fine folks over at Fangraphs have posted an interesting discovery…that Braves outfielder Gregor Blanco’s favorite movie is clearly, “Happy Gilmore.” For supporting evidence click here. Seriously, the video clip makes me want to claim him in my fantasy leagues just because.

Knowing when to buy and sell players in fantasy baseball is not unlike playing the stock market. Correctly predicting a streak of excellence or futility is a difficult, but essential ingredient to the success of a franchise. The players that follow are a couple key buy low candidates for fantasy owners looking to make a push in their standings over the remaining few months of the season.

Delmon Young, OF, Twins
Admit it, you thought Delmon would finish off his first 30-30 season in 2008 and the Twins trade with the Rays would be considered a coup. It’s tough to forget he’s just 22 years old and there are plenty of ballplayers his age that haven’t even found their way out of the minors yet. His first homer of the season yesterday against the White Sox may be just the spark he needs to get things going. Over his young professional career, his numbers in the second half of the season are nearly equal to those of the first half of the year minus one notable difference–his batting average. He has hit nearly 30 points higher in the second half than in the first half. It’s safe to say he may finally be getting comfortable with the Twins and while 30-30 is a pipe dream, he is poised to remind us of the kind of elite talent he is over the rest of the season.

Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves
Francoeur was a popular sleeper among fantasy analysts this spring, but minus a small handfull of games (a two-homer game against the Nationals in mid April and a four-RBI effort against the Mets in late May) he’s been shockingly pedestrian. I was among those analysts that really liked him this spring, and like many of my peers, I still expect him to go on a tear at some point this season. Consider that over his three-year career, he’s hit more homers in July and August than any other months and there is clearly more than a glimmer of hope for him yet.

Erik Bedard, SP, Mariners
This season it’s safe to say there is no bigger disappointment for fantasy owners in regards to lackluster pitching performances than Mr. Bedard. He’s allowed four runs or more in three of his last five starts and looked basically lost in a start against the Rangers in mid may where he allowed seven hits, four walks, six earned runs, and struck out only two in two innings of work. To be fair, he hasn’t been lucky in terms of the number of balls in play falling for hits this season, which is a trend that should level out over the course of the season. Sure, the Mariners aren’t going to provide a ton of run support (the only AL team with fewer runs scored this season is the Royals), but if Bedard pitches even remotely close to as well as he did last season, he won’t need many runs to start piling up the victories. Remember that last season after the All-Star break he went 6-1 and posted an ERA that was nearly a run better than his first half mark while improving his WHIP slightly as well. His strikeouts were up and walks down during May so it’s time to take a chance on him if his owner has lost faith.

Photo courtesy of NY Newsday

There was certainly a draft in my house when the plumber came by to install a new sink for me and felt compelled to leave the front door open and back windows open to create a wind tunnel. That isn’t the kind of draft I’m talking about in this case.

I would be a bit blind if I let the MLB draft pass without comment. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star had a nice column about the problems with the draft earlier this week. No two seamheads have the same opinion regarding how to cure what ails the draft process, but I have my opinions.

Far to often a player’s contract demands dictate how the entire first round plays out. That is ludicrous if for no other reason than these are ballplayers some of which have never played above high school level. It’s not often I point to the NBA as a source of intellect and logical thinking, but they have each pick in the draft slotted to specific numbers a player can earn for their first three seasons. We are still talking about millions here, not the $27K I made in my first job post college.

There are widly differing opinions as to whether or not teams should be able to trade draft picks or at least the rights to drafted players. People have their reasons, mostly citing a general manager’s ability to leverage his team’s future in exchange for the necessary wins to save his job. Is this really an issue that would run rampant? I’m about giving teams as many ways to build their rosters as possible and if they want to trade draft picks for players who can help them win now (see the Yankees), why handcuff them from doing so? It’s a very shortsighted approach to managing your team, but if it’s what you find to be a more comfortable way of operating, why should the league stand in your way?

Okay, so before I conclude this post I would like to comment on the three players I’m most intrigued to see mature into big leaguers.

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Drafted by the Pirates second overall
The fine folks over at Fangraphs.com wrote a post about Alvarez after having the opportunity to watch the former Vanderbilt star in person when he was playing with Team USA a few summers ago. The columnist Dave Cameron described Alvarez’s short and compact swing that generated a ton of power. He mentioned how the ball jumped off his bat like a trampoline and one drive got from home plate to the wall in what seemed like little more than two seconds. The most telling statement in Cameron’s writeup is one I completely agree with based on what I’ve seen on video and read in the press, “Pittsburgh hasn’t seen a hitter with this kind of ability since some guy named Bonds left for San Francisco.” If you are a dynasty leaguer that allows for holding players in your farm system, this guy should be at the top of your list.

2) Justin Smoak, 1b, Drafted by the Rangers 11th overall
Many scouts viewed him as the best hitter in the draft and he slid this far. As a Jays fan I was hoping he’d slide another six spots, but I realized that was a pipe dream even as the thought crossed my mind. Reports are that he could move fast and it’s interesting that the player most people compare him to is the superstar first baseman the Rangers were forced to trade last year in Mark Teixeira. On top of his hitting prowess, he’s thought to be the best combination of offense and defense at first in the 2008 draft class and while defense means very little to fantasy owners, it does typically result in a team taking a more aggressive approach with promoting him through the ranks of their minor league system. Damn, six more spots is all I needed.

3) Aaron Hicks, OF, Drafted by the Twins 14th overall
Hicks is a few years from roaming the outfield in Minny, but he should be close to ready when the team closes their first season in the new stadium in 2010. Hicks has the athleticism of most five-tool prospects as seen in his near 80 grade arm on the scouts 80 point scale and his 6.6 speed in a 60-yard dash. He’s a switch hitter with quick hands that should produce an above average batting average and above average power once he matures and makes it to the majors. He may be just the kind of rare talent that would force the Twins to move Carlos Gomez to left.

As a lifelong Blue Jays fan and Vernon Wells owner in a couple of my fantasy leagues I admit that I had a grin on my face with yesterday’s news. Wells started a rehab assignment and could return to the lineup by this time next week after being sidelined since May 9 with a broken bone in his left wrist. He was originally supposed to miss at least six weeks and now it looks like it will take a major setback in his rehab to prevent him from returning before that time frame. Wells owners should be giddy right?

Wrong.

I have seen plenty of my players suffer similar wrist injuries over the 16 years I’ve played fantasy baseball and almost ALL of them have dealt with residual effects from the injury over the three to four months that followed. After shagging fly balls a couple weeks ago, Wells told MLB.com, “It just felt a little weak. I’m not used to my hand getting tired from squeezing the glove a few times. That’s the biggest thing.” This is a statement that should be taken seriously. If he is dealing with weakness from simply playing catch, imagine the effect of swinging a bat and connecting on a 90-mph fastball.

I’m cautiously optimistic that Wells won’t be as affected by residual soreness as other past injured players. Why? I point to a post by Disabled List Informer that claims the good news is that his broken wrist is his non-dominant, left wrist. This means he will not have any restriction while throwing, and his top hand while batting (the one that creates a good deal of bat speed) will not be affected.

Fantasy owners who have waited out the injury certainly shouldn’t sell low on him now. Wait until he has a few weeks of at bats under his belt to pass judgment on how well his recovery from the wrist injury is going. Remain patient because he was hitting well (.281, five homers, 24 RBI) in 139 at bats prior to the injury and could provide a boost to your team’s offensive numbers over the remainder of the season.

EDITOR’S NOTE: On another Blue Jays tip, there are well known sources in the fantasy industry calling out closer B.J Ryan and trying to spark fear in fantasy owners in a way most weathermen do when they warn people to stock their shelves with canned goods and board up the windows before a scattered shower rolls through town. Ryan converted 12-of-12 save opportunities before hitting a bump in the road over his last two appearances, blowing save opps against the Angels and Yankees.

Sure, Scott Downs is pitching well, but do the Jays have what’s left of $47 million invested in him over the next three years? Nope. Ryan is their closer and I wouldn’t get too uptight about if he’s blown his arm out again. He hasn’t. He’s been given multiple days off between appearances and just recently past the one year mark from when he blew out his elbow last season. Typically it takes most pitchers a year to make it back, and two years to start showing as much or more strength in the elbow as they had prior to the injury. The fact Ryan has pitched as well as he has should be lauded, not thrown to the wolves the first minute he stumbles.

Photo courtesy of the TimesLeader.com

I don’t need to rehash the injury analysis of Braves pitcher John Smoltz, when the fine folks over at Disabled List Informer have done that for you here. It doesn’t sound good for him to recover enough from shoulder surgery to return and help the Braves next season.

Photo courtesy of Daily Illini.com

Devil Rays outfielder Carl Crawford wasn’t with the team on Tuesday, instead heading out on a road trip, err, air trip to visit renown doctor James Andrews in Birmingham, Alabama. Crawford complained of soreness in his right knee and had to make the trip because local team orthopedist Koco Eaton was in Paris. Manager Joe Maddon told the St. Petersburg Times that the MRI report was good, and he would talk to Crawford before the game to see if he would be available for reserve duty tonight. Maddon added the Rays will be a “little bit cautious with him until the soreness subsides,” but reiterated that “everything seems to be ok.”

“It’s hard to evaluate, [his presence is] so important,” Maddon said. “Having Carl there improves your defense. It improves your offense. It causes much more concern for the other team on the bases. It provides confidence for the rest of the group that he’s there. Listen, he’s our All-Star. He plays the whole game. He plays it hard. If you don’t have him out there, then the entire complexion of the team changes.”

It sounds as though there is no reason for Crawford’s fantasy owners should panic, but I will admit that I own him in one league and the first mini tear that he goes on at the plate to drive up his value a bit I will consider shopping him around. His numbers are slightly down this year so it would be difficult to get as much trade value as we’ve come to expect in past seasons. Wait patiently and strike when the iron is hot.

Just a quick note to let those surfing through the blogosphere that the player rankings have been updated. You can find them by clicking on “player rankings” in the black navigation bar on my homepage.